Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[weatherwiz]

I don't think even Linus Ullmark can stop this warm tongue

[SouthCoastMA]

GFS looks a tad colder thru 24h..hard to believe. Let's see what happens afterwards

Edit: The primary is stronger and slightly more NW at 36h, so I'm assuming that will offset the colder start

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

I’m trying to understand the role of mid-level lows because what got us are 16 inches in mid January were the track of the mid-level lows in the resulting deformation. Is this about the mid-level lows not being closed off because the main short wave is deamplifying? Sorry I know so little.

They do close, but late in the game. 

A "classic" event you have the WAA band move through and then the mid levels close somewhere around MTP and continue northeast and the storm does a bit of a pause and pivot with the CCB.

This storm is moving almost due east, so we don't really get a pivot because the WAA doesn't keep moving through but like Will said it does allow eastern New England more time to get the CCB involved. But because the mid levels are always moving away from the coast, any delay in deepening and the CCB is toast.

[MJO812]

Gfs is more north but SNE gets it good once the secondary low takes over. 

[George001]

Gfs looks about the same 

[BostonWX]

For the clowns

 

[weathafella]

Yeah little change but a boatload of qpf.

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

They do close, but late in the game. 

A "classic" event you have the WAA band move through and then the mid levels close somewhere around MTP and continue northeast and the storm does a bit of a pause and pivot with the CCB.

This storm is moving almost due east, so we don't really get a pivot because the WAA doesn't keep moving through but like Will said it does allow eastern New England more time to get the CCB involved. But because the mid levels are always moving away from the coast, any delay in deepening and the CCB is toast.

Thank you! We had a beautiful pivot in the January storm. I watched on the radar and I could see what was happening, and during the pivot we had snowfall rates of like 2 inch an hour.

[weathafella]

I’d be shocked of BOS got 11+

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Yeah little change but a boatload of qpf.

Yeah, just about 2" here, with the sleet line barely getting to me and then collapsing into heavy snow.

[George001]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’d be shocked of BOS got 11+

Yeah, Boston usually gets screwed with the East wind. I wouldn’t be surprised if they get like 2-3 and 10 miles NW ends up with 8 or something. Still a lot of uncertainty though, if the NAM is right Boston gets nothing. 

[Henry's Weather]

I wouldn't be shocked if backbay gets a pasty 10". Would be shocked if Logan records 10 inches

[ORH_wxman]

GFS did nudge a hair north with the ULL out in the Ohio valley. Then it went probably even more gangbusters over E MA later in the game than 12z did. But again, pretty minor trends....one of these models is gonna make a larger move at some point.

Onto 00z. (well, Euro at 18z I guess....then 00z)

[Damage In Tolland]

Stayed fogged in and cloudy until 2:00 today with a brief high of 40.. so actually kept some pack . Longest of the winter now at 3 days . Hopefully can get at least a week if can get a couple tomorrow night and Saturday. Sad.. but better than the first 3 months I suppose.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’d be shocked of BOS got 11+

They won't. Don't use clown maps. Look at positive snow depth change and NARCAN.

[HoarfrostHubb]

29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’d be shocked of BOS got 11+

What do the muthafukkas say?

[8611Blizz]

BOX upping the totals for some area's but not buying much improvement for the coastal area.

[NorEastermass128]

I feel like this is all or nothing for the coast. I’ve seen this movie plenty of times. Hedging conservatively for now. 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

What do the muthafukkas say?

4-6

[BombsAway1288]

6 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

BOX upping the totals for some area's but not buying much improvement for the coastal area.

Gotta think it’s gonna end up at least double that for BOS especially coming at night but I get the conservative approach for now

[Patrick-02540]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stayed fogged in and cloudy until 2:00 today with a brief high of 40.. so actually kept some pack . Longest of the winter now at 3 days . Hopefully can get at least a week if can get a couple tomorrow night and Saturday. Sad.. but better than the first 3 months I suppose.

Who stepped on your snow????

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

BOX upping the totals for some area's but not buying much improvement for the coastal area.

I like that for CT, but I’d probably go higher in NW CT.

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Nearby.  The beautiful area of Burrilville RI.  Sorta like Appalachia.   
She is actually in FL right now but her son is at home 

Ahhh. Yes. That area is closer to me, but has better snow than me...probably most of the time this winter. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

Who stepped on your snow????

The dog and daughter . Angry 

[8611Blizz]

Some tv mets have upped boston to 2-4 but most are still playing conservative and following nws as of now. 

I do see some issues with accumulations on the coastal roadways. That east wind I don't think will be denied and the airmass still basically sucks so on pavement more than 2" might be tough inside of about 5-7 miles of the coast.

[Henry's Weather]

These days I'm just as excited for the snow to fall as I am for the purposeful workout of shoveling my and my neighbor's sidewalks and driveways. Pushing up from the ground repeatedly? Running after nothing but yoir own previous best runs after nothing? Good to have non-hampster-wheel reasons to exercise

[powderfreak]

29 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

BOX upping the totals for some area's but not buying much improvement for the coastal area.

Looks like the Herpes.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

37 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

BOX upping the totals for some area's but not buying much improvement for the coastal area.

@kdxken… an expected bump. I thought they were too low yesterday. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't think even Linus Ullmark can stop this warm tongue

IDK, NH border has a helluva GAA this season. Legit Vezina candidate..

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

@kdxken… an expected bump. I thought they were too low yesterday. 

Right on the line. Hopefully I'll be on the lesser side. I've managed to go all winter without shoveling. Would like to keep that intact.