Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[weatherwiz]

46 minutes ago, joey2002 said:

Why does this Kuchera map give you almost a foot of snow while the Pivotal Kuchera shows only like 3”?  

 

maybe it incorporates sleet? 

but the real answer is b/c those products are trash

[Kitz Craver]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we want to turn that flow from out of the SE/SSE to more easterly as quick as possible....that gets the CCB cranking...you are essentially wrapping the WCB precip up and around the north side of the storm which what becomes the CCB in the classical diagrams. If the flow never really turns east until later, then we get the WCB rip through (our front end thump) and then a dryslot while the CCB goods hit further north or offshore if it takes too long even for NNE.

The one aspect that helps in this storm is that it hits a brick wall and starts going due east...so that "Allows" the CCB to form fairly late and still possibly get us because the storm stops gaining latitude near us. But yeah, the faster the turning of the mid-level winds out of the east, the better.

 

See a quick example below....look at how the GFS is starting to turn things pretty hard out of the east by 09z Saturday morning....

 

 

Now 6 hours later at 15z, it's full-on CCB look...and we get away with that relatively late development because it's going nearly due east

 

 

Now look at the NAM at the same exact times and look at how much worse it is for SNE

 

Really nice post. Awesome way to describe and visually depict. Clear as day to what is needed as far as wind direction wrt to CCB development and what each model is showing.

[tavwtby]

still sticking with 4-6" in NWCT, with some higher amounts N and NW of my immediate area, unless we happpen to get in on some banding or the CCB good, which may be too late in developement for my area, but look good for ORH over to BOS, but temps marginal still in SNE.

[Spanks45]

18z HRRR still drunk down here......Definitely a cold bias after 18 hours it seems, low placement looks similar to most, besides the NAM of course

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Didn't see any 12 to 20s on the Narcan post I made out of NNE so I have no idea what you were talking about.

Not NARCAN, clown maps.

[dryslot]

Watches hoisted

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I suspect Kuchera products are generated by the weather model provider, not NCEP and the ECMWF, and may use slightly different algorithms to determine if something is falling as sleet, snow or rain, and thus will have different clowns.

 

I could be wrong.

[rcostell]

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we want to turn that flow from out of the SE/SSE to more easterly as quick as possible....that gets the CCB cranking...you are essentially wrapping the WCB precip up and around the north side of the storm which what becomes the CCB in the classical diagrams. If the flow never really turns east until later, then we get the WCB rip through (our front end thump) and then a dryslot while the CCB goods hit further north or offshore if it takes too long even for NNE.

The one aspect that helps in this storm is that it hits a brick wall and starts going due east...so that "Allows" the CCB to form fairly late and still possibly get us because the storm stops gaining latitude near us. But yeah, the faster the turning of the mid-level winds out of the east, the better.

 

See a quick example below....look at how the GFS is starting to turn things pretty hard out of the east by 09z Saturday morning....

 

 

Now 6 hours later at 15z, it's full-on CCB look...and we get away with that relatively late development because it's going nearly due east

 

 

Now look at the NAM at the same exact times and look at how much worse it is for SNE

 

Great instructional posts to us formative learners. Thanks! 

[FXWX]

Sometimes a drunken sailor actually knows what he's talking about...

[Henry's Weather]

2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I suspect Kuchera products are generated by the weather model provider, not NCEP and the ECMWF, and may use slightly different algorithms to determine if something is falling as sleet, snow or rain, and thus will have different clowns.

 

I could be wrong.

Correct.

[ORH_wxman]

NAM is already quite a bit less amped at 18 hours than 12z.

[FXWX]

28 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

take a look at the qpf maps that @powderfreak posted. both Euro and GFS have you solidly in the 1.25" range. that's nothing to shake a stick at

won't be an issue up here. snowpack is in good shape, todays rain aside. and the snow had no problem quickly accumulating during a quick busrst of snow this AM. yeah later Saturday once storm winds down roads should be in good shape. talking my area specifically

Agree... only thinking about SNE; mainly CT

[CoastalWx]

HRRR trying to bring 60kt winds to S Shore beaches after 6" of playdough.

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Sometimes a drunken sailor actually knows what he's talking about...

ha, they can be wise, especially staring down the face of a storm.....

[weatherwiz]

that is one insane jet streak rounding the base of the trough...120+ knots at 500mb...wowzers 

[FXWX]

37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

? Roads were a disaster here until like 8 am when solar helped. 

Really... I believe you, but a bit surprised... all the guys I deal with indicated they only needed one good scraping during the hour or so prior to daybreak and then treatments... even here, one good plow passage and then treatment, at 7 am or so and then it was gone...  probably was tough to keep up with in some cases, especially in the predawn hours... once you get a decent base on the roads, it does change the outcome... overnight / predawn hours for the best rates are key this time of the year...

[radarman]

Watches up here too

[78Blizzard]

NAM @ hr 30 looks colder this run.

[Cold Miser]

40 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ginx, what do you think for your area?  My sister is wondering.  I'm thinking just a couple of inches of snow if any.  Some sleet and rain  

Does your sister live in Moosup?...or is she going to vacation down on Moosup Pond?

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

NAM @ hr 30 looks colder this run.

It is, but it's still significantly more amped than other guidance. But the 12z was so zonked that we can see a solid trend this run and the NAM would still be the northern outlier.

[UnitedWx]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM is already quite a bit less amped at 18 hours than 12z.

Like clockwork....

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Nam looks worse - garbage

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

Like clockwork....

NAM is just getting really amp-happy around that 30-36 hour mark....it really goes nuts with the primary low just east of Detroit. So this is going to be another torched run.

[dryslot]

Once the Nam gets into NE, Its not much different then 12z, That primary remain quite strong and north.

[CoastalWx]

NAM is a non event lol.

[RDRY]

NAM even torchier at 700 hPa.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

NAM is a non event lol.

Are you tossing it? 

[8611Blizz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is a non event lol.

For coast?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Are you tossing it? 

I don't see how you can't toss it. It's not even close to other guidance. I'm not sure what it's doing when it gets closer to the lakes....but it was significantly less amped in the first 18 hours or so of that run and then it just goes crazy with the neg tilt and sets off a nuke near Detroit.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Are you tossing it? 

I don't trust it to locate the primary correctly, so punted.