Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[UnitedWx]

  On 3/2/2023 at 6:01 PM, CoastalWx said:

Euro is a tick south. Not a huge move, but noticeable.

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Interesting, as it's not known to correct quickly. NAM on the other hand will probably have its foot for all run at 0Z tonight lol

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/2/2023 at 6:01 PM, CoastalWx said:

Euro is a tick south. Not a huge move, but noticeable.

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Like a pair of grapes? 

[CoastalWx]

I would define a move south again as a cave and the GFS not move north. But yeah, it's a move south.

[weathafella]

  On 3/2/2023 at 6:04 PM, CoastalWx said:

I would define a move south again as a cave and the GFS not move north. But yeah, it's a move south.

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It was a big difference in my sensible wx.

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/2/2023 at 6:05 PM, weathafella said:

It was a big difference in my sensible wx.

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I think I would need another move as cave to me is like a collapse. But anyways, yeah semantics. Nice to see anyways. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

A GFS/Euro blend of 50/50 would be nice

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Tickle tickle 

[HinghamBoss]

If you look at the clown maps, we get there.  When you parse it out, I don't see the crazy rates in the overnight hours.  It starts to pile up after sunrise.  That recipe seems suspect to me.  That being said, you can see which model appears to be in the driver's seat.

[EastonSN+]

I need another 50 mile jog south for coastal CT 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 3/2/2023 at 6:06 PM, CoastalWx said:

I think I would need another move as cave to me is like a collapse. But anyways, yeah semantics. Nice to see anyways. 

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You are so snake bitten by this winter lol. It was a good move south. Doesn’t mean it can’t go back north, but it was a decent move 

[ORH_wxman]

The nice thing now, is even if we get a 50/50 compromise from here on out between Euro/GFS, that's gonna be a huge hit for like BOS to ORH and maybe even down to far N CT/N RI.

[ineedsnow]

watches should come out this afternoon

[Kitz Craver]

  On 3/2/2023 at 5:53 PM, weatherwiz said:

OMG

This is BDL. that omega 

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Hey! It’s the backdrop to the final level of Metroid!

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 3/2/2023 at 6:08 PM, EastonSN+ said:

I need another 50 mile jog south for coastal CT 

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I'm hoping this is a better move for where I am west of Hartford by about 12 miles. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 3/2/2023 at 6:09 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The nice thing now, is even if we get a 50/50 compromise from here on out between Euro/GFS, that's gonna be a huge hit for like BOS to ORH and maybe even down to far N CT/N RI.

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Yeah, it probably won’t be all snow here, but it definitely could be a very significant winter storm. Snow sleet snow 

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/2/2023 at 6:09 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You are so snake bitten by this winter lol. It was a good move south. Doesn’t mean it can’t go back north, but it was a decent move 

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I'm not looking at clown maps, I am looking at features which to me is more important. 

[CoastalWx]

The euro made a decent move by its standards. Not just a fart, so that is good to see.

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/2/2023 at 6:09 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The nice thing now, is even if we get a 50/50 compromise from here on out between Euro/GFS, that's gonna be a huge hit for like BOS to ORH and maybe even down to far N CT/N RI.

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Yeah that would work for many.

[Henry's Weather]

  On 3/2/2023 at 5:26 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Interesting that BOX took down their probabilistic map for the event

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Wonder if they were waiting for the euro? I'll bet they hoist watches NW of a line from Bos-Prov

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/2/2023 at 6:11 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, it probably won’t be all snow here, but it definitely could be a very significant winter storm. Snow sleet snow 

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Biggest improvement this run was the thump. It's starting to actually look decent. The CCB idea is fun, but I'm not counting on much from that....Im assuming it will mostly hit like SE NH and then slide offshore....but the thump can give us close to warning snows alone.

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 3/2/2023 at 6:09 PM, ineedsnow said:

watches should come out this afternoon

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Wondering how far south the watches will go? Hoping they make it to the 4 northern counties of CT ( I'm pulling for you guys on the coast as well ). Not sure we will even get a watch here though. 

[Henry's Weather]

  On 3/2/2023 at 6:12 PM, Henry's Weather said:

Wonder if they were waiting for the euro? I'll bet they hoist watches NW of a line from Bos-Prov

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Correction: At 4 PM update*

[MuddyWx]

[weatherwiz]

  On 3/2/2023 at 6:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Biggest improvement this run was the thump. It's starting to actually look decent. The CCB idea is fun, but I'm not counting on much from that....Im assuming it will mostly hit like SE NH and then slide offshore....but the thump can give us close to warning snows alone.

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Even on the paltry NAM it has some hefty omega aloft. 

I seriously have no clue which way to hedge right now

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/2/2023 at 6:14 PM, MuddyWx said:

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Put that on 24h snow at the 60 hour mark to isolate just this storm alone...but those kuchera maps giving warning snows for much of MA are a good indicator that the thump is looking much better. It's less marginal.

[CoastalWx]

The thump is definitely getting better aided by this s/w sort of elongating a bit and not shooting north at a longitude that would hurt us.

[MuddyWx]

and the weenie deflator map

[FXWX]

  On 3/2/2023 at 6:09 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The nice thing now, is even if we get a 50/50 compromise from here on out between Euro/GFS, that's gonna be a huge hit for like BOS to ORH and maybe even down to far N CT/N RI.

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Agree... if you want to throw in a meso; throw in the rgem for good measure to the compromise.  If the NAM  wins given the global trends, it will be one of its all time wins...   I think we will know as soon as this upcoming 18z cycle whether or not the NAM has any chance.  I think the globals are best representing the impacts of the confluence and blocky nature of the setup...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Euro cut QPF about 20% Across SNE that run 

[powderfreak]

  On 3/2/2023 at 6:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

The euro made a decent move by its standards. Not just a fart, so that is good to see.

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It somehow got snowier up here too.

One of these is not like the other.