Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Overall, pretty consistent. Yes, a bit warmer. 

[jbenedet]

6 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Overall, pretty consistent. Yes, a bit warmer. 

No it’s been a gradual capitulation to warmer guidance. 
 

Look at the SE ridge, sliding west and stronger.

This is now consistent with other guidance that has significant easterly fetch out ahead, with surface highs to our east.

 

[powderfreak]

Given all the Ensemble guidance... the GGEM/CMC ensemble is the middle road approach.

[TalcottWx]

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

No it’s been a gradual capitulation to warmer guidance. 
 

Look at the SE ridge, sliding west and stronger.

This is now consistent with other guidance that has significant easterly fetch out ahead, with surface highs to our east.

 

That's a much better look at it, thank you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well your Narcan has a different take. Judging by sneaky warm layers probably correct as far as Euro output goes

Toss those 12-20" numbers to the moon.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

No it’s been a gradual capitulation to warmer guidance. 
 

Look at the SE ridge, sliding west and stronger.

This is now consistent with other guidance that has significant easterly fetch out ahead, with surface highs to our east.

 

I had mention this yesterday i believe that there's competing forces with the -NAO trying suppress but you had the SE ridge trying to flex which has won out this year with the majority of these, If it wasn't for the - NAO, This one would have been another cutter thru the lakes.

[jbenedet]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Toss those 12-20" numbers to the moon.

Yea that’s classic CCB type output. I don’t see the mechanics for that at all. I think we’ll see a “back end” more like Tuesday’s; IVT-ish.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Yea that’s classic CCB type output. I don’t see the mechanics for that at all. I think we’ll see a “back end” more like Tuesday’s; IVT-ish.

Right, except that we all get the first round this time, instead of our area missing out. I don't by the full-tilt Miller B, either.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Toss those 12-20" numbers to the moon.

What does GFS Narcan look like can't get it to load

[NorEastermass128]

I think Ray’s map looks good. I’m thinking a sloppy couple should do it for the coast. 

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Toss those 12-20" numbers to the moon.

In NNE no I won't. Upslope city front and back. I could see Phin Wildcat area cashing in again. Those places had 12- 20 last storm

[ORH_wxman]

I’m leaning toward the current the euro/NAM too right now. I need to see a another solid tick toward GFS today to convince me otherwise. 

They’ve def come south since earlier yesterday, but in my area, I really need the GFS to win that battle by 70/30 or 80/20. 50/50 won’t really cut it here if I’m looking for warning snows. 

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea that’s classic CCB type output. I don’t see the mechanics for that at all. I think we’ll see a “back end” more like Tuesday’s; IVT-ish.

That's NNE and more qpf than last storm and they pulled off 12 to 20 last storm. East inflow everyone knows the rules.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's NNE and more qpf than last storm and they pulled off 12 to 20 last storm. East inflow everyone knows the rules.

Wow didn’t realize 12-20 during last event.

well then sure. Different world up there in many ways. 

I guess the main point is that’s not CCB driven.

 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m leaning toward the current the euro/NAM too right now. I need to see a another solid tick toward GFS today to convince me otherwise. 

They’ve def come south since earlier yesterday, but in my area, I really need the GFS to win that battle by 70/30 or 80/20. 50/50 won’t really cut it here if I’m looking for warning snows. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m leaning toward the current the euro/NAM too right now. I need to see a another solid tick toward GFS today to convince me otherwise. 

They’ve def come south since earlier yesterday, but in my area, I really need the GFS to win that battle by 70/30 or 80/20. 50/50 won’t really cut it here if I’m looking for warning snows. 

Save a horse 

[ORH_wxman]

06z euro def just came a tick south. CCB looks really good for E MA north of pike. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 z Euro we are cooked down here 700 level already above freezing at 48 hrs with low level temps above freezing 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Save a horse 

Eh not quite like the old days. It’s been moving toward GFS more than the reverse. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro def just came a tick south. CCB looks really good for E MA north of pike. 

Was just noting that. There’s also a blob of convection offshore that may factor in in terms of the low tucking into LI or offshore. 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

We are going to need a full gfs solution here, so not holding my breath 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Was just noting that. There’s also a blob of convection offshore that may factor in in terms of the low tucking into LI or offshore. 

 

There’s like 2 diff things to watch. Any leading vort max will help with front end thump…06z euro actually looked a touch worse on this part….then, the next part is where MLs try and close off…06z was def a little bit south of 00z on this part. 

[CoastalWx]

Temps in ern areas are borderline as well. Again another lousy antecedent airmass. At least a chunk of this is at night. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s like 2 diff things to watch. Any leading vort max will help with front end thump…06z euro actually looked a touch worse on this part….then, the next part is where MLs try and close off…06z was def a little bit south of 00z on this part. 

Yep agreed.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Eh not quite like the old days. It’s been moving toward GFS more than the reverse. 

Explosive height crashes between hrs 51 and 54 along with a slug of precip all of SNE. Interesting backside after initial thump.

[dryslot]

Between today's event and Saturday, Euro has 10-14"+ for a good chunk of NH/ME.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Explosive height crashes between hrs 51 and 54 along with a slug of precip all of SNE. Interesting backside after initial thump.

Euro caving to GFS….Euro idea from yesterday sucked.  

[powderfreak]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's NNE and more qpf than last storm and they pulled off 12 to 20 last storm. East inflow everyone knows the rules.

  One bite. Everyone knows the rules.

[NorEastermass128]

Both the EURO and GFS are 6+ here. Oh, how I wish I wasn’t so jaded. 

[mahk_webstah]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Toss those 12-20" numbers to the moon.

GYX has 6-12+ in the zones already but no watch yet.