Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

I hate how sobering that product is

I love how right that product usually is...especially when thermals are an issue. Its probably least useful during very cold, major events.

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Narcan pretty similar to depth change product...I would expect something like this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Narcan pretty similar to depth change product...I would expect something like this.

Looks familiar, mic drop....

[powderfreak]

Looks like we are seeing a meet in the middle.

GFS bumped north with QPF, Euro bumped south with thermals.  Both now take the low near Long Island, GFS fairly significant move north with low pressure position.

GEFS been going steadily north tick by tick last 24 hours with QPF.

Today’s 00z:

Yesterday’s 00z:

 

[TalcottWx]

5 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It wasn’t, but who’s counting.

When you have Will and Jerry saying you're wrong.... 

[TalcottWx]

Blocking and confluence on the 6z GFS are a hair stronger early. We'll see.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

Blocking and confluence on the 6z GFS are a hair stronger early. We'll see.

5h low also south of 0z to our west through 39

[TalcottWx]

Eastern MA crushed on the 6z GFS. A tick colder, secondary a touch further south and slightly slower through 57

[Henry's Weather]

Nice. CCB signature is the best it's looked

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Eastern MA crushed on the 6z GFS. A tick colder, secondary a touch further south and slightly slower through 57

Congrats, Ray.

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Eastern MA crushed on the 6z GFS. A tick colder, secondary a touch further south and slightly slower through 57

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

Nice. CCB signature is the best it's looked

Energy at 5h looked a lot better I thought. CCB cranks over ORH to BOS up to Ray

[TalcottWx]

6z NAM is still so wrong it's laughable. It's not even close .

[powderfreak]

The ICON moved fairly substantially up into the NAM/EURO camp.

[CoastalWx]

It’s tough for me to buy the GFS. Still lean more to NAM/Euro. I’ll need today to change that. 

[TalcottWx]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s tough for me to buy the GFS. Still lean more to NAM/Euro. I’ll need today to change that. 

What makes you lean toward EURO/NAM, I remember Will saying he had heavy lean to GFS/EURO until about today if I remember correctly. NAM just appears to be 100% out to lunch, no?

[HoarfrostHubb]

44 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

6z NAM is still so wrong it's laughable. It's not even close .

Unless it’s right

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Unless it’s right

The depiction and it's output are very odd

[CoastalWx]

41 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

What makes you lean toward EURO/NAM, I remember Will saying he had heavy lean to GFS/EURO until about today if I remember correctly. NAM just appears to be 100% out to lunch, no?

I mean in the sense that they are warmer. Not necessarily all in on one particular piece of guidance or the other. 
 

Basically 12z has to prove to me that there is a reason to lean colder. Antecedent airmass sucks. It’s not that cold. So, we’ll need a further south look. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well your Narcan has a different take. Judging by sneaky warm layers probably correct as far as Euro output goes

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean in the sense that they are warmer. Not necessarily all in on one particular piece of guidance or the other. 
 

Basically 12z has to prove to me that there is a reason to lean colder. Antecedent airmass sucks. It’s not that cold. So, we’ll need a further south look. 

I was just thinking how mild it was last night... MVL up here was 32-34F most of the night (actually it got up to 36F from 1-2am).  Sure there will be CAA behind this current system but it's an interesting observation that for those that snow it might just marginally get there.  Then again, that's all it has to do, get to 32F or lower.

[TalcottWx]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean in the sense that they are warmer. Not necessarily all in on one particular piece of guidance or the other. 
 

Basically 12z has to prove to me that there is a reason to lean colder. Antecedent airmass sucks. It’s not that cold. So, we’ll need a further south look. 

Essentially we want a colder move by the warmer models, in order to convince you. Makes sense now.

[powderfreak]

6z 3km NAM looks like most of the systems of late.  Gets into Ray to Hubby zone, while crushing Dendrite to Dryslot.  It's still ripping up to 1"/hr in NH/ME at the end of the run here so there's more to come in those areas.

[SouthCoastMA]

It's pretty amazing to me that models have clustered consistently around Cleveland for the primary. Other than a few wobbles, we couldn't buy any major moves south with that. 10 years ago we probably would've seen a lot more spread 3-4 days out

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Essentially we want a colder move by the warmer models, in order to convince you. Makes sense now.

I want a colder move by all. 

[jbenedet]

I’d be very skeptical of the 6z GFS output.

The 6z GEFS was clearly a capitulation to the warm camp. Warmest run probably in 2 days. 

It looks a lot like EPS now.

[jbenedet]

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I want a colder move by all. 

Good luck with a colder GFS

[jbenedet]

[TalcottWx]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I want a colder move by all. 

I would like this to stall and bomb to 960 100 miles south of Montauk