Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 3/2/2023 at 3:50 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ya’ll need your eyes checked, it’s warmer by a good amount at 12z sat.

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It gives a better front end thump down to west central CT 

[ineedsnow]

This run is beautiful 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It’s warmer and the initial thump is father north, period.

 

still not an awful solution, but by no means was it better than 18z

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/2/2023 at 3:51 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah. I’m not sure what people are looking at. It wasn’t very hard to see 

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You still get in the ccb though. 

[ineedsnow]

  On 3/2/2023 at 3:50 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ya’ll need your eyes checked, it’s warmer by a good amount at 12z sat.

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18+  for my area

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/2/2023 at 3:53 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It gives a better front end thump down to west central CT 

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Yeah it may have ended up north of 18z by Saturday, but the way it gets there is important. There was a stronger vort lobe sticking east so we got a really good thump…and the CCB was very strong again this run. 

[weathafella]

  On 3/2/2023 at 3:53 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s warmer and the initial thump is father north, period.

 

still not an awful solution, but by no means was it better than 18z

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It was for me.  Nice CCB Saturday 

[George001]

  On 3/2/2023 at 3:53 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s warmer and the initial thump is father north, period.

 

still not an awful solution, but by no means was it better than 18z

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Low location more north too

[8611Blizz]

Drops 18" on Boston. Tonight tv mets might make adjustments?

[weathafella]

12/9/05

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 3/2/2023 at 3:54 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You still get in the ccb though. 

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  On 3/2/2023 at 3:54 AM, weathafella said:

It was for me.  Nice CCB Saturday 

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Yeah looks like eastern ma still gets in on the CCB, if that feature is to be believed 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/2/2023 at 3:55 AM, 8611Blizz said:

Drops 18" on Boston. Tonight tv mets might make adjustments?

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Need to see more guidance on board. I’d start feeling pretty good though up by Ray’s hood over to S NH and N ORH County. 

[wxsniss]

It is a tick warmer 12z Saturday but then bonafide Miller B

Huge hit northern CT on north... I'd call this GFS holding firm

H7:

[ineedsnow]

  On 3/2/2023 at 3:56 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Need to see more guidance on board. I’d start feeling pretty good though up by Ray’s hood over to S NH and N ORH County. 

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Getting excited could easily be my biggest storm I've seen in years

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Verbatim, probably no plain rain here on that run. Snow/sleet/snow 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/2/2023 at 3:54 AM, ineedsnow said:

18+  for my area

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Good for you, you need it. In general, it was north and warmer in the mid levels and surface. Rain for southern half of CT sat morning.

[8611Blizz]

  On 3/2/2023 at 3:56 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Need to see more guidance on board. I’d start feeling pretty good though up by Ray’s hood over to S NH and N ORH County. 

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Yup. i still would want to see what the Euro does.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The 850 low went from far  SW CT To a S end of Nantucket . Very rare track . 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/2/2023 at 3:57 AM, wxsniss said:

It is a tick warmer 12z Saturday but then bonafide Miller B

Huge hit northern CT on north... I'd call this GFS holding firm

H7:

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I would not call it holding firm overall but if you want to say pike north holds firm on big snow potential, sure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Be careful about confusing QPF haircuts for warming trends moving forward...not saying anyone has done that, but its easy to do...I'll take the under on GFS QPF.

[8611Blizz]

FWIW Fox Boston went up from 1-3 to 3-6 for the Boston already.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 3/2/2023 at 3:59 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I would not call it holding firm overall but if you want to say pike north holds firm on big snow potential, sure.

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There was a definite haircut south of the pike. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/2/2023 at 3:58 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The 850 low went from far  SW CT To a S end of Nantucket . Very rare track . 

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Yeah and I don’t trust it to make that track so I want to see this a little further south off to the west as we get closer to feel good about it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/2/2023 at 3:59 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I would not call it holding firm overall but if you want to say pike north holds firm on big snow potential, sure.

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It held firm for all intents and purposes...its just that those right on the line obsess over every modeled gravity wave that impacts snowfall output.

You notice all of the people that are arguing it didn't hold serve live in CT and se MA.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18z:

0z:

[WxWatcher007]

  On 3/2/2023 at 4:04 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It held firm for all intents and purposes...its just that those right on the line obsess over every modeled gravity wave that impacts snowfall output.

You notice all of the people that are arguing it didn't hold serve live in CT and se MA.

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Right. Game of inches and ticks down here. 

[Diggiebot]

  On 3/2/2023 at 3:56 AM, weathafella said:

12/9/05

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Yeah but that had epic winds that overshadowed the snow especially on the cape 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 3/2/2023 at 4:04 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It held firm for all intents and purposes...its just that those right on the line obsess over every modeled gravity wave that impacts snowfall output.

You notice all of the people that are arguing it didn't hold serve live in CT and se MA.

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I mean, by definition, if it’s different, it didn’t hold serve, no?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/2/2023 at 4:04 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It held firm for all intents and purposes...its just that those right on the line obsess over every modeled gravity wave that impacts snowfall output.

You notice all of the people that are arguing it didn't hold serve live in CT and se MA.

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I’m sure if it didn’t hold firm for YOU, you’d say the same. Let’s not pretend it did not nudge north with mid level warmth and the surface though.  

[George001]

  On 3/2/2023 at 4:02 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

There was a definite haircut south of the pike. 

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Yep, that’s how it starts. A little haircut here and there, then by the time the storm is on our doorstep everything trends towards the NAM.

 

  On 3/2/2023 at 4:05 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

18z:

0z:

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Its not just a clown map hallucination, the low itself took a decent jog north from 18z. If anything, with how much more north the low was I’m surprised the haircut wasn’t bigger south of the pike. A couple more ticks like that and all of a sudden the low is over western MA.