Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/1/2023 at 11:13 PM, weathafella said:

Whose map is that?  

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A bad one 

[WinterWolf]

  On 3/1/2023 at 11:19 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’m just the opposite.  Felt better about it yesterday.   Right now I’m leaning more Euro.  

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Even As bad as the Euro has been this winter…? Why do you feel it has the right idea?   

You think it’s handling the block correctly over the GFS? 

 

[8611Blizz]

I would have felt better about this one if Friday was say 35 for forecast high instead of low 40's.  Or if it looked like a stall...

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/1/2023 at 11:24 PM, WinterWolf said:

Even As bad as the Euro has been this winter…? Why do you feel it has the right idea?   

You think it’s handling the block correctly over the GFS? 

 

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Euro hasn't been as bad as some say. I am going full Euro here. Enjoy CNE. Reminds me of 08

[radarman]

  On 3/1/2023 at 10:59 PM, CT Rain said:

I fly out tomorrow morning for Telluride

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sweet, have a blast

[WinterWolf]

  On 3/1/2023 at 11:29 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Euro hasn't been as bad as some say. I am going full Euro here. Enjoy CNE. Reminds me of 08

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Hey that’s cool.
 

I don’t think it’s been any good at all. Seems to always be playing catch up lately. I think it’ll cave. But it’s all good. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro has  not been stellar this year. It’s already south from when it was over our Fanny practically. 
 

But, I don’t buy the gfs either. Probably a compromise which wound be pretty dull.

[weathafella]

So Boston’s ocm team feels the warmth is underdone it seems.  Seems to go against even the euro but we’ll see.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/1/2023 at 11:35 PM, CoastalWx said:

Euro has  not been stellar this year. It’s already south from when it was over our Fanny practically. 
 

But, I don’t buy the gfs either. Probably a compromise which wound be pretty dull.

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Prepare for sleet and ice 

[NorEastermass128]

  On 3/1/2023 at 11:36 PM, weathafella said:

So Boston’s ocm team feels the warmth is underdone it seems.  Seems to go against even the euro but we’ll see.

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Boston’s OCMs are going conservative because they just busted too high for yesterday’s event. #burned

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/1/2023 at 11:40 PM, NorEastermass128 said:

Boston’s OCMs are going conservative because they just busted too high for yesterday’s event. #burned

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There is zero reason not to be conservative.

[weathafella]

  On 3/1/2023 at 11:42 PM, CoastalWx said:

There is zero reason not to be conservative.

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C-2 inside all of 128 seems low.

[8611Blizz]

The guy on NBC10 (not Bouchard) mentioned the seasonal trend and the ocean temps as reasons for conservative forecast for the coastal area.  Everyone has also mentioned that it is early and all this could change..

[Damage In Tolland]

It’s Fish of course. He’s busted low on most this winter. The few there’s been . Dude hates winter and is cocky about it.

 

[powderfreak]

  On 3/1/2023 at 11:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s Fish of course. He’s busted low on most this winter. The few there’s been 

 

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Given snowfall totals to date, it must be tough to bust low on most events this winter.  That’s tough to do.

[CoastalWx]

There is the ORH +2 staring right at us. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/1/2023 at 11:47 PM, weathafella said:

C-2 inside all of 128 seems low.

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I don’t have an issue this far out. Nothing screams aggressive to me. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/1/2023 at 11:53 PM, powderfreak said:

Given snowfall totals to date, it must be tough to bust low on most events this winter.  That’s tough to do.

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He’s busted low at times north of Boston into NH. 

[CoastalWx]

18z euro Might be a hair cooler.

[weathafella]

  On 3/2/2023 at 12:09 AM, CoastalWx said:

18z euro Might be a hair cooler.

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Minimally-seems close to 12z but at least we’re sinking south at least by a tiny amount.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/1/2023 at 11:53 PM, powderfreak said:

Given snowfall totals to date, it must be tough to bust low on most events this winter.  That’s tough to do.

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Trust me.. I watch him. He’s slippery 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully the bleeding stopped and we can stitch up. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 3/1/2023 at 11:24 PM, WinterWolf said:

Even As bad as the Euro has been this winter…? Why do you feel it has the right idea?   

You think it’s handling the block correctly over the GFS? 

 

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While I agree that the Euro hasn't been great, I think it will be more right than the GFS with this one... it (the storm) will slide a bit north due to the way the block not being quite as strong.   Maybe it's just noise.

 

[weathafella]

0z tonight is about the time for the one nam run giving all of New England 18 inches....

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 3/2/2023 at 12:00 AM, CoastalWx said:

He’s busted low at times north of Boston into NH. 

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A couple of times.  But not too much

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 3/2/2023 at 12:23 AM, weathafella said:

0z tonight is about the time for the one nam run giving all of New England 18 inches....

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We can hope 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/2/2023 at 12:18 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

While I agree that the Euro hasn't been great, I think it will be more right than the GFS with this one... it (the storm) will slide a bit north due to the way the block not being quite as strong.   Maybe it's just noise.

 

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18z Bufkit GFS is crazy at ORE 17.7

NAM 3.2

[weathafella]

Too bad we don't have Harvey forecasting anymore....

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/1/2023 at 11:59 PM, CoastalWx said:

There is the ORH +2 staring right at us. 

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Yeah that’s really blatant when you put the departures right next to BOS like that. ORH is almost exactly 2 warmer each month. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/2/2023 at 12:23 AM, weathafella said:

0z tonight is about the time for the one nam run giving all of New England 18 inches....

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00z feels like a pretty big run…we got the bump warmer at 12z after 06z was cooling but then came back a little cooler at 18z on most runs.