Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I know for me the WPC snow amounts and percentages tend to be superior over the local offices . I watch them all every storm . WPC is usually steadier and less weenie’ish. I use their 50% cut off line to basically determine what they are thinking and if the percentage lines are packed very tight you know there is a steep gradient 

I like this a lot actually. Very reasonable ATM.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I like this a lot actually. Very reasonable ATM.

And I closely follow their updates / trends . They really are under utilized in the day of folks loving clown maps 

[Chris12WX]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

North and pretty weak sauce. Meh.

#Persistance

[Cold Miser]

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least we have the 40" March Ray promised us. 

I don't remember if he promised me 9.5 by this time in the season...I will have to go back and check his crystal ball write up.

[NeonPeon]

55 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Ready to move onto 3 months of cloudy and drizzle, aka spring

Or, for many, this winter, bar one day. 

[78Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I like this a lot actually. Very reasonable ATM.

Obviously they have either ignored the GFS or are saying it's wrong in the making of that map.  Otherwise, they wouldn't have a 0-10% chance for much of SNE.  Even a 20% weighting for it would yield a greater percentage.

[jaf]

23 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

One thing to note about the BOX map is it only goes to 7AM Saturday. There could be more after that

 

Could also be more rain after that

[WinterWolf]

55 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I hope it works out for all. We’ve been burned so many times this winter though, tough to have confidence it’ll work out positively 

Ya we have been burned. It’s sucked. I’m just going with the building/retrograding -NAO, and the confluence/50/50, this should get shunted south and possibly redevelop. If it doesnt…oh well.  
 

I think the Euro has the wrong idea….it sucks lately to be honest. 

[mahk_webstah]

25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

And I closely follow their updates / trends . They really are under utilized in the day of folks loving clown maps 

I get a lot of shit when I talk about what WPC says lol I like them because they will stick with Continuity as opposed to flopping around with every model run

 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I get a lot of shit when I talk about what WPC says lol I like them because they will stick with Continuity as opposed to flopping around with every model run

 

I know and i think it may be all but the NWS WFO's consult with them.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I get a lot of shit when I talk about what WPC says lol I like them because they will stick with Continuity as opposed to flopping around with every model run

 

I mean let’s face it . It’s a snow board and WPC maps are lower then clown maps and they are also more accurate.
 

So they won’t be as liked. It’s honestly not rocket science . I’ve noticed myself that when I latch onto snowier ideas and models it’s more “enjoyable” from the standpoint of a winter weather enthusiast. It’s really basically the default setting unless you decide to realize it’s less enjoyable and More accurate to remain unbiased (not flip to negative which I am aware Is a “thing” probably to lower bar etc    I don’t look for ways things won’t work when I’m looking at a system a couple days out , also I think having the ability to travel for most big snows makes looking at things from a more “balanced” perspective less “painful“  . It’s hard to find a true balance and I really work at that even with my limited knowledge . 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Nam looks like garbage Thru 54

[dryslot]

Congrats Montreal.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nam looks like garbage Thru 54

Looks considerably north of 12z early on.

[dryslot]

Considerably.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nam looks like garbage Thru 54

Ka Ka.

[weatherwiz]

One thing noticeable too is the models have been a bit inconsistent on exactly where the low forms down in Texas. This may not mean much really, but that could impact it's exact track as it moves northeast and then ultimately determine whether it gets farther north or squashed south

[CoastalWx]

NAM moves north, but then slides east with an isothermal snow bomb for NE MA.

[ORH_wxman]

18z NAM actually crunched the low eastward quicker than 12z despite initially being further north. Something to watch on future runs...if that process happens a little faster, you start ending up pretty snowy quickly...like I said earlier with the QPF too, it's sort of non-linear.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Nam adjusted late . Secondary low took a decent track for Merrimack valley 

[dryslot]

Nam looks good.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z NAM actually crunched the low eastward quicker than 12z despite initially being further north. Something to watch on future runs...if that process happens a little faster, you start ending up pretty snowy quickly...like I said earlier with the QPF too, it's sort of non-linear.

Will  synoptically what were the reasons for the first move further north and then  “second move “ more East late 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z NAM actually crunched the low eastward quicker than 12z despite initially being further north. Something to watch on future runs...if that process happens a little faster, you start ending up pretty snowy quickly...like I said earlier with the QPF too, it's sort of non-linear.

right - I thought it actually looked colder at first.. but wasn't paying attention to the low itself -really more about the thermal fields.   Then it ends up east like that - so it kind of is an ambrosia of tedium to try and parse out what's really better or worse. 

I'm sick of this mo-f*r

just happen already and get it over with.  sonuvabitch

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

At least we have the 40" March Ray promised us. 

I don't understand your point...its March 1, and I have you on the line between 2-5" and 1-3" for this event. God, what an insufferable baby. 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM moves north, but then slides east with an isothermal snow bomb for NE MA.

Yeah that was a nice correction at the end.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't understand your point...its March 1, and I have you on the line between 2-5" and 1-3" for this event. God, what an insufferable baby. 

It’s a joke 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't understand your point...its March 1, and I have you on the line between 2-5" and 1-3" for this event. God, what an insufferable baby. 

It's a joke. Relax.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that was a nice correction at the end.

It squashes the ULL east last minute. It's a real risky thing though. 50 miles here or there is a cold rain or 6". 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will  synoptically what were the reasons for the first move further north and then  “second move “ more East late 

Looked like it was digging the initial s/w more which causes it to want to rip N when it goes negative, but the confluence looked a little better well out to the east to it was forced to shoot eastward once it hit the brick wall.

 

[WinterWolf]

A Nod toward the GFS….