Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[UnitedWx]

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like another sleet/ icestorm is coming south of 90?

He's back!! Welcome sir, just in time for the scalp fest

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This thing def hits a brick wall and goes due east....we just gotta hope it does it slightly sooner than the 12z runs were showing.

Yup.   A small adjustment south would bury us.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

Yup.   A small adjustment south would bury us.

There's a non-linear response to the QPF too....when we get this thing swinging up west a bit, it basically prevents the WCB from really tapping into the Atlantic and crushing us. When it's a bit further east/south, it really goes to town.

[WinterWolf]

She’s gonna end up south…Euro has the wrong idea imo. I dont think that     -NAO and confluence will not be denied when it’s go time. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This winter is nauseating. 

We tried to tell ‘em.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

She’s gonna end up south…Euro has the wrong idea imo. 

Well everything ticked a little warmer overall at 12z. Except for the Bratwurst Forecast System. 

[Spanks45]

Euro is not what it used to be, so at this point it is a wait and see how things shake out over the next 24 hrs....If all models look like the Euro at some point and hold the look, then maybe it is correct. But I have seen the Euro be wrong and sometimes way wrong more often recently. So I will take the GFS ensembles at this point and just hope they are right....Lol

[NorEastermass128]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

60-66 hours but who’s counting....

D’oh. I was thinking it was Tuesday. It’s been that kind of week. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

She’s gonna end up south…Euro has the wrong idea imo. I dont think that     -NAO and confluence will be denied when it’s go time. 

Agreed, it will be denied 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Well everything ticked a little warmer overall at 12z. Except for the Bratwurst Forecast System. 

GEFS was very good. GFS was ok too.  What’s your call?  I think this goes south ultimately. 

[codfishsnowman]

Box was hedging warmer this morning before these north ticks

I feel like this is gonna be a lousy event for much of the area south of I 90

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Agreed, it will be denied 

You’re such a frieken dud…

[tunafish]

I've noticed on the clown maps, especially GFS, most of the QPF stays south of Maine - really sharp cutoff north of York County.  What's driving that?  Is it the confluence to the NE?

[mahk_webstah]

Any sense that a somewhat further south slightly stronger system tonight and tomorrow will help pull everything a little further south Friday night?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, tunafish said:

I've noticed on the clown maps, especially GFS, most of the QPF stays south of Maine - really sharp cutoff north of York County.  What's driving that?  Is it the confluence to the NE?

Northern fringe because of how far south the low was and its moving almost due east below LI on that run.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, tunafish said:

I've noticed on the clown maps, especially GFS, most of the QPF stays south of Maine - really sharp cutoff north of York County.  What's driving that?  Is it the confluence to the NE?

Gets pretty far north on Euro....but yeah youll see a sharp cutoff on the northeast side due to the blocking shoving everything east once it reaches a certian point.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

It’s basically gfs in one camp and nam/ euro/ cmc /Ukie in the other. That can still change but if that’s the story in 24 hours it’s not ideal for many in sne 

Scott has said his concern is this comes north , and Again at his latitude that makes sense 

I want to see if EPS are a tick south of OP, my hope is they are 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gets pretty far north on Euro....but yeah youll see a sharp cutoff on the northeast side due to the blocking shoving everything east once it reaches a certian point.

 

Does this one bear any similarities to the storm last week on the 23rd?

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

GEFS was very good. GFS was ok too.  What’s your call?  I think this goes south ultimately. 

I'm exhausted by this winter. My gut says north, but hope I am wrong. It's the same shit. It would be a cutter without the block, but the tilt and strength of this s/w IMO is not helping. 

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

She’s gonna end up south…Euro has the wrong idea imo. I dont think that     -NAO and confluence will not be denied when it’s go time. 

Without those things this storm tracks over Detroit and it’s dews of 50F to Canada.  Those two things are working hard to just get NE in the game.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Does this one bear any similarities to the storm last week on the 23rd?

The ageo flow isn't as good as the 2/23 event so I don't expect a lot of prolonged icing like you had in that one. We might be able to get a little more snow on the front end than that one had....we'll see though. Prob more sleet in this system too.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’re such a frieken dud…

Not unlike this winter.

 

Listen to scooter, beware the north trend 

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm exhausted by this winter. My gut says north, but hope I am wrong. It's the same shit. It would be a cutter without the block, but the tilt and strength of this s/w IMO is not helping. 

I’m worried about Ray.

[dryslot]

Scooter Knows.

[CoastalWx]

I don't know, so don't rope me in...lol. It's just my concern. I hope I am wrong...but I don't see overwhelming reason to think it pulls a CT special like the last one and ticks south. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't know, so don't rope me in...lol. It's just my concern. I hope I am wrong...but I don't see overwhelming reason to think it pulls a CT special like the last one and ticks south. 

You’ve been clear and right more than wrong this winter . That is 100% fact . People also know your posting location so you have very little wiggle room 

[codfishsnowman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't know, so don't rope me in...lol. It's just my concern. I hope I am wrong...but I don't see overwhelming reason to think it pulls a CT special like the last one and ticks south. 

I miss the winter of 2002-2003...there was a -NAO that winter that was helpful 

[George001]

once the north ticks start inside D3, they keep going until verification

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You’ve been clear and right more than wrong this winter . That is 100% fact . People also know your posting location so you have very little wiggle room 

Great event for CNE and NNE. At least ski areas get to have a good 2nd half season. Lakes Region to Dryslot it seems has had a lot of lackluster seasons lately. 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't know, so don't rope me in...lol. It's just my concern. I hope I am wrong...but I don't see overwhelming reason to think it pulls a CT special like the last one and ticks south. 

Its one of your alias.............lol