Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[dryslot]

6-10"

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Lots of qpf... let's see if it hold or dries out a bit like has been the trend this season

Further east track on the shortwave will produce big QPF....wrapping it up west ala NAM will keep is fairly paltry by comparison...that's basically the larger scale view of how QPF will trend in this.

[Kitz Craver]

So stronger shortwave, also stronger confluence on 12zGFS, but doesn’t seem to be a wash wrt sensible weather outcomes. Went from mostly snow at 6z to a scalp fest at 12z for most of CT. Did the 2mb increase of shortwave strength promote more warming aloft? 

[CoastalWx]

If anything the s/w on Saturday morning was a little deeper this run, which helped the CCB.

[UnitedWx]

4 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

This is too close for comfort. Verbatim a ton of mixing in my area of CT. 

If this trend a little further south, we are looking at a major snowstorm.

If it trends a little north...

I think it was back in 2015 we had 2 events that were a little over 6 inches of snow, and then several inches of sleet. It was a BEAR to plow, but I'd take that again in a heartbeat. It's the only time I remember having anywhere near that much sleet here and it happened twice the same year.

[CoastalWx]

Canadian a little north and warmer. 

[dryslot]

12z CMC slp is 988mb over the ACK

[Kitz Craver]

Interesting to see if EURO/EPS ticks colder again

[Cold Miser]

12 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

This is too close for comfort. Verbatim a ton of mixing in my area of CT. 

If this trend a little further south, we are looking at a major snowstorm.

If it trends a little north...

 

[TalcottWx]

I imagine the EURO will still be clueless, and we'll have plenty of questions about this.

[Spanks45]

Just now, TalcottWx said:

I imagine the EURO will still be clueless, and we'll have plenty of questions about this.

This is where it will make a move that will leave us scratching our heads as to why it becomes the coldest/snowiest model....

[Kitz Craver]

However you have to think a tic colder/south/quicker transfer is at least somewhat of a hat tip towards American guidance being just over 48hrs away…

[dryslot]

Beware of the warm tongue.

[jaf]

25 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

This is too close for comfort. Verbatim a ton of mixing in my area of CT. 

If this trend a little further south, we are looking at a major snowstorm.

If it trends a little north...

Is this the proper snowfall map from the 12z GFS, or the one that shows 3" in Providence?

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Beware of the warm tongue.

So is this a SWFE or a Miller B? One of the two have a much more impactful tongue… Lol 

[ORH_wxman]

None of these solutions synoptically are drastically different, but as Tip said, these really mild nuances can have large impacts on sensible wx.

[Cold Miser]

43 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

drink down das boot, so smooth

"shooting the boot" is something done in rugby, during post match drink-ups either at the bar, party, wherever.   
When group sing-a-longs happen, and if you were the person leading the song, and mess up the lyrics you have to shoot the boot...This means take the nastiest rugby boot (cleat/ shoe), and fill it with whatever alcohol was lying around (and sometimes spit, and other stuff).

Some of the older rugby songs have some of the nastiest lyrics by the way.  I think the whole practice has become a bit tamer over the years.
 

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

None of these solutions synoptically are drastically different, but as Tip said, these really mild nuances can have large impacts on sensible wx.

Let's see what the rest of daylight modeling begins. Going to have a better clue tomorrow am, hopefully. 

[CoastalWx]

GEFS look good. As many said, the "thump" probably is the most important part. Yes the thermals are important, but if we don't have the 6hr QPF dump while it is cold enough, it won't matter much. The thump and associated lift also helps hold off some of the mid level warming. 

[weathafella]

GFS has been amazingly consistent all things considered once we left clown range.  Let's hope it's correct.   

[DomNH]

Going to the Celtics Friday night so watching onset more than anything and it’s interesting how the GFS is bringing this in much faster than pretty much all other guidance. 

[weathafella]

CMC is cold enough for the pike region for the thump.  At this point that's all I care about.   Snow maps show 6-12.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, DomNH said:

Going to the Celtics Friday night so watching onset more than anything and it’s interesting how the GFS is bringing this in much faster than pretty much all other guidance. 

This may be one of the most annoying aspects of this whole thing. The timing differences are pretty wild. I'm inclined to go with the faster timing which seems to be the case more often then not, especially in these patterns. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I feel like I'm experiencing deja vu

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

This may be one of the most annoying aspects of this whole thing. The timing differences are pretty wild. I'm inclined to go with the faster timing which seems to be the case more often then not, especially in these patterns. 

Faster at outset, and a lot faster finish...

[weathafella]

Meanwhile OT but clown range CMC has a warm core 960 low well offshore d10.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I feel like I'm experiencing deja vu

All over again? 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

All over again? 

Dave and Yogi?

[DomNH]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This may be one of the most annoying aspects of this whole thing. The timing differences are pretty wild. I'm inclined to go with the faster timing which seems to be the case more often then not, especially in these patterns. 

Yeah I tend to agree, but I don’t really see this as a typical SWFE get in get out either. Very annoying.

[dryslot]

Some of you may not want to look at the uncle.