Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

58 minutes ago, FXWX said:

here is the 48 hour GFS ending Sunday 12z

Expect a 50mile tick in either direction inside 48hr but I’m leaning it will be south. It could equate to a warmer aloft but colder surface trend though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Expect a 50mile tick in either direction inside 48hr but I’m leaning it will be south. It could equate to a warmer aloft but colder surface trend though. 

I don't even envision mid levels trending much warmer.

[TalcottWx]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

My soul could use it. Much needed.

The 7" yesterday was awesome-but would really love to have a well put together, consolidated storm. 

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't even envision mid levels trending much warmer.

Another East flow event.  

[Modfan2]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't even envision mid levels trending much warmer.

I could see me down here transitioning from snow to a bunch of sleet and maybe some rain towards the end

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't even envision mid levels trending much warmer.

Meant for down here. I don’t think any warmer aloft trends get north of CT/MA border. 

[ORH_wxman]

Confluence looks just a tick weaker on the NAM through 48h, but the main shortwave is also weaker and the western trough is shallower, so not sure how this one will play out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

The 7" yesterday was awesome-but would really love to have a well put together, consolidated storm. 

My 1.5" of slush yesterday was awesome, but really love when freshly fallen snow isn't transparent. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Meant for down here. I don’t think any warmer aloft trends get north of CT/MA border. 

Oh, okay. Yea...

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Confluence looks just a tick weaker on the NAM through 48h, but the main shortwave is also weaker and the western trough is shallower, so not sure how this one will play out.

It’s 72 hours, so it’s precisely in the mandatory fuck up window of the Nam

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s 72 hours, so it’s precisely in the mandatory fuck up window of the Nam

It's coming in colder anyway despite the slightly weaker confluence because of the other two factors I mentioned....weaker shortwave and less WC troughing pushing up heights downstream.

[CoastalWx]

NAM is mostly sleet. 

[ORH_wxman]

Eh, now it looks warmer at 63 hours...lol

 

[CoastalWx]

Ripping the s/w north again.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah that is ka ka.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that is ka ka.

Lame solution. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

NAM is good at feeling that warm tongue... beware...beware!!

[CoastalWx]

Nothing says 22/23 like a cold rain on a Saturday morning. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s 72 hours, so it’s precisely in the mandatory fuck up window of the Nam

Exactly this. It doesn’t mean much. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Ripping the s/w north again.

Yeah initially the S/w was weaker which kept downstream heights lower, but then it drifted north at a further west latitude than the prior run after about 57 hours...and that's the key. Those further west solutions just don't give us the good front end thump. Sent the goods into upstate NY again.

[SouthCoastMA]

It's shite. Another tick S on the 12z globals (or two on the Euro) would be helpful. If things stagnant or even start converging, sleet will be my ceiling. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's coming in colder anyway despite the slightly weaker confluence because of the other two factors I mentioned....weaker shortwave and less WC troughing pushing up heights downstream.

Lol...

yeah...I was being 'sardonical' ...but I'm pretty sure we're going to be entering into a bit of a meso weirdness for the next day and half, as these type tools are really no where near their wheelhouse at this range - you know this ...for the general audience.  

I really feel at 3.5 days lead we gotta make the call here and predict the f'er at this point, and anyone that does gets a bit of latitude because for one... the gradient is tight.  No one ( or model either ) can be held accountable if wiggles at grid scales means the difference between 9.4" of snow and some IP taint, vs 3.2" with ZR ..., vs cold rain, or 14.1" of pure snow... and on and so on. 

It's one reason why the colder trends were encouraging, because between the confluence N, and the semi permanent ridge wall S-SE, there is, ironic for needle threading, higher confidence in the primary --> secondary in the Bite region model to me.  It's the "path of lessening resistance" ..but if/when doing so (obviously) in a colder total environment, affords those nuanced wiggles.

[CoastalWx]

Shoveling off roofs in the lakes region while I rototill the garden, 

[SouthCoastMA]

That NAM run personified

[weatherwiz]

The differences between the NAM/GFS are astonishing. But regardless, it appears this system is going to be weakening relatively quickly. 

[Typhoon Tip]

clock work with the NAM...

72 hours it hangs it's ass over the punch bowl.

 

[dryslot]

Nam looks good for CNE/NNE.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12z runs start in an hour.

[weatherwiz]

Going to have to rely quite heavily on getting good upper level divergence to help with blossoming precipitation. There is a ton of dry air out ahead of the system and also a great deal of dry air that gets ingested into the system as a whole. 

[jbenedet]

The NAM would have been quite a bit worse if not for the night time onset. That aspect looks key across multiple pieces of guidance.

 

It's effin' warm.