Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[wxsniss]

0z / 12z... I think this is a significant step towards the consensus (led by king GFS?)

[weathafella]

  On 3/1/2023 at 6:25 AM, wxsniss said:

0z / 12z... I think this is a significant step towards the consensus (led by king GFS?)

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That's a great graphic to illustrate it!   18z was probably half way there.  More ticks to. come most likely but we're running out of time also.

[wxsniss]

  On 3/1/2023 at 6:21 AM, weathafella said:

It actually keeps light snow going through Saturday night-inverted trof effect?  

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Kind of similar to the trailing energy today. As Tip called it, the "leitmotif". Feels like variation of today's theme, except a much more robust system and earlier commitment to secondary before decay.

[wxsniss]

  On 3/1/2023 at 6:29 AM, weathafella said:

That's a great graphic to illustrate it!   18z was probably half way there.  More ticks to. come most likely but we're running out of time also.

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If the goalposts are GFS and Euro, we are golden.

Still would rather Euro continue to trend towards GFS to give us more buffer.

It's really striking how steady the GFS has been with this vs. Euro cycling back 10+ runs.

[weathafella]

  On 3/1/2023 at 6:36 AM, wxsniss said:

If the goalposts are GFS and Euro, we are golden.

Still would rather Euro continue to trend towards GFS to give us more buffer.

It's really striking how steady the GFS has been with this vs. Euro cycling back 10+ runs.

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I think the Euro and GFS will be similar by 12z tomorrow.

[WxWatcher007]

I’d prefer the 06z to have kept the surface below freezing, but it’s a tick colder aloft. Just about all snow here. 

[klw]

BTV's take on the system from the AFD:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

From 00Z Saturday onward is where models diverge. While there`s
agreement that there will be some sort of secondary low development
along the southern New England coast Friday night, the strength and
position of the aforementioned surface high pressure north of the
Canadian border remains in question. Where the GDPS was the outlier
the past 2 days offering a stronger high and QPF suppressed across
our central/southern zones and southward, the GFS has now jumped on
board while the latest GDPS has trended slightly north. The ECMWF
remains the most northward solution with the heaviest QPF, but it
should be noted the mean of its ensemble members keep it south
across central/southern New England. So what does all this mean?
Well, while confidence is increasing (quite high actually) that the
forecast area will receive precipitation, confidence remains low as
to where the heaviest QPF will occur. The good news is that the
ptype is currently looking like all snow, with the worst case
scenario being some sleet mixing in across southern VT.
Probabilities from blended guidance for >4" of snow are 60-70%, but
for >8" it drops off to 30-40%. A snow storm with minor to moderate
impacts seems likely Friday night through Saturday with our best
first guess being a widespread 5-8" from north to south.

[CoastalWx]

Please gfs be right. 

[Hoth]

  On 3/1/2023 at 11:23 AM, CoastalWx said:

Please gfs be right. 

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Oh how we pray.

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/1/2023 at 11:47 AM, Hoth said:

Oh how we pray.

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My soul could use it. Much needed.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/1/2023 at 11:49 AM, CoastalWx said:

My soul could use it. Much needed.

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Gfs saving souls in 2023…oh how far that model has come. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/1/2023 at 12:00 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs saving souls in 2023…oh how far that model has come. 

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I’ve vocally mentioned my displeasure with the euro lately. I hope this adds to it. 

[MJO812]

Looks like 6z Euro ticked south

[WinterWolf]

  On 3/1/2023 at 12:00 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs saving souls in 2023…oh how far that model has come. 

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It’s gonna be right…you could see it yesterday taking the lead with the block and confluence stronger, Euro is caving slowly and will continue to today. GFS dragging the Euro kicking and screaming to the finish line. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 3/1/2023 at 12:09 PM, MJO812 said:

Looks like 6z Euro ticked south

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WTTTE.

[NorEastermass128]

‘Merica #1!

My older sister used to call Friday night snowstorms “cozy” storms. We’d all watch TGIF, eat crinkle fries, drink hot chocolate, play Nintendo, and lay out our stuff to go sledding in the morning. Those were the days. 

[ORH_wxman]

06z euro a little colder again. Baby steps. 

[CoastalWx]

Let’s get that last finishing rub. 

[MJO812]

  On 3/1/2023 at 12:26 PM, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get that last finishing rub. 

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Lets get this NAO to shift this more ( this looks good for the majority of SNE )

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 3/1/2023 at 4:15 AM, ORH_wxman said:

GFS solution is getting close to a Miller B. Getting closed circulations in the midlevels 

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Close ...I mentioned this was trying to move that way yesterday. You can observe that the ballast of the mid level wind max is now actually S of NYC-BOS axis, so technically...it's already starting to fail the SWFE total deep layer mechanics... 

In fact, I'd be perfectly happy saying the 00z/06z GFS blend is a hybrid Miller B already

[jaf]

Does anyone have a snowfall map for the 6z GFS and Euro?

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/1/2023 at 12:33 PM, jaf said:

Does anyone have a snowfall map for the 6z GFS and Euro?

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[jaf]

  On 3/1/2023 at 12:36 PM, CoastalWx said:

 

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 Lol, looks about right

[Modfan2]

  On 3/1/2023 at 12:36 PM, CoastalWx said:

 

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Lock it!! Lol

[CoastalWx]

Maybe someone can post the wxbell snow maps. Otherwise the cumulative ones get noisy with whatever happens tomorrow morning up north. 

[tunafish]

  On 3/1/2023 at 12:12 PM, NorEastermass128 said:

‘Merica #1!

My older sister used to call Friday night snowstorms “cozy” storms. We’d all watch TGIF, eat crinkle fries, drink hot chocolate, play Nintendo, and lay out our stuff to go sledding in the morning. Those were the days. 

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90's kid FTW.  The best part about Friday night snowstorms is you could have/go to sleepovers - and do the same thing you describe.

---

Timing of this looks to have slowed down a bit, and duration extended.  Nature of moving towards a Miller B vs. SWFE, I'm assuming.

[wxsniss]

24hr snowfall on 6z GFS, 10:1

key thing to highlight... this is all under 84hrs I think for the first time this season...! 

[Spanks45]

  On 3/1/2023 at 12:52 PM, wxsniss said:

24hr snowfall on 6z GFS, 10:1

key thing to highlight... this is all under 84hrs I think for the first time this season...! 

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Lol, look at that Fairfield county cutoff here in CT. Otherwise that is double digits for most of the state. Impressive if the GFS actually has a clue...

[jaf]

  On 3/1/2023 at 12:52 PM, wxsniss said:

24hr snowfall on 6z GFS, 10:1

key thing to highlight... this is all under 84hrs I think for the first time this season...! 

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 Hmm, was it out all night drinking?

[Modfan2]

  On 3/1/2023 at 12:52 PM, wxsniss said:

24hr snowfall on 6z GFS, 10:1

key thing to highlight... this is all under 84hrs I think for the first time this season...! 

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I’m caught under the CT Snow Triangle between DT and Ginxy!