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Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

But-it does seem to be coming back to earth or consensus.  0Z should be helpful.

Yeah it’s nice to see the northward nudges stop. No argument there. Hopefully it can actually be sustained. Need to keep that shortwave from gaining so much latitude in the MS River valley. Swing it through the Ohio river basin instead and we’d do quite well even if we flipped to sleet. You’d get a ferocious front ender first. 
 

I mentioned this before, but when it gains all that latitude further west, the best WCB forcing goes up the St Lawrence valley 

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CoastalWx
CoastalWx
ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Really nice outline John…thanks for the start on this thread.    Im going to ask people to keep this thread cleaner than the last one. Keep the discussion on topic. There’s going to be highs an

Damage In Tolland
Damage In Tolland

Looks like another sleet/ icestorm is coming south of 90?

Posted Images

Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, CT Rain said:
23 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yup that's my read as well

 

Correct me from wrong, but I feel that in the past winter seasons you had tended to favor the Euro. Any thoughts on this year? ( Not being as accurate this season has passed ).

GFS has been more consistent showing the storm as a colder solution and the Euro has it much farther north.

Are you going with a blend or would you side with one of the two global models ( Not to put you on the spot lol ).  But you are our guy!!  ;-)

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Correct me from wrong, but I feel that in the past winter seasons you had tended to favor the Euro. Any thoughts on this year? ( Not being as accurate this season has passed ).

GFS has been more consistent showing the storm as a colder solution and the Euro has it much farther north.

Are you going with a blend or would you side with one of the two global models ( Not to put you on the spot lol ).  But you are our guy!!  ;-)

Gotta ways to go before we/he can say which model has the better idea. But with that strong confluence and Neg NAO exerting its muscle, I think this will trend south some due to that idea. 
 

 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Gotta ways to go before we/he can say which model has the better idea. But with that strong confluence and Neg NAO exerting its muscle, I think this will trend south some due to that idea. 
 

 

I like that your hedging more this season then in the past. Tracking is more enjoyable that way and when it goes right, it’s satisfying…it’s even satisfying when the hedge is against snow ha.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I like that your hedging more this season then in the past. Tracking is more enjoyable that way and when it goes right, it’s satisfying…it’s even satisfying when the hedge is against snow ha.

Very true.  Thank you Luke. Hoping the hedge is more right than not lol. 
 

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

18z eps still looks the most amped based off TT maps. Anyone have the individual members?

I got you. Totals from 12z Friday onward.  Removes any earlier snow/precip.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-precip_72hr_inch-8104000.thumb.png.b42126ba9ab3fde4ee0d77ae7134a37a.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-snow_72hr-8104000.thumb.png.07b490335b590413ebbfa72b40b33868.png

And the 24 hour trend from yesterday's 18z run to the above image.  Definitely a solid tick south in the mean compared to 24 hours ago.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-snow_72hr-7996000_B.thumb.png.46e9fe956a8dea824285054282d6956b.png

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here's a conspiracy theory ... 

 ... notice how about 18 months ago... last year or so, the ECMWF org relaxed policy over their products quite a bit ... started allowing general access to viewing? 

This performance shit started raising eyebrows around then.   Hmm   Who here loves a good coincidence ?!

I commented on this last night... GFS has been remarkably steady for ~10 runs now. Euro quite the opposite, with steps north that (hopefully) may have overshot by over-amplifying the primary and holding on too long.

So... in the growing chatter about dethroning the king, this upcoming system will be one of the more prominent showdowns of GFS vs. Euro.

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