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Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event


Typhoon Tip
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  On 2/28/2023 at 4:25 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Mostly an all snow event for you. Confluence overpowering a strong primary, keeps the cold locked in.

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  On 2/28/2023 at 4:27 AM, Spanks45 said:

Couple inches of snow, followed by a ton of sleet....main low makes it to Ohio, second develops south of long island....

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Ok..these are two different things lol..

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I think it’s becoming clear that even though the primary SLP likely tracks well inland, the confluence in place may still lead to wintry impacts, as shown on the GFS and CMC

I would also not be surprised if it continued to tick stronger given the blocking in place, similar to what happened with the ongoing system

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  On 2/28/2023 at 6:31 AM, weathafella said:

Euro is furthest north, ukmet/cmc is an unholy alliance.   Gfs believe in or not is the middle ground.

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...and fwiw, GFS has objectively been the most consistent for the past 4 runs

Euro has been steadily ticking north and I suspect overshot, perhaps over-amplified the primary that held on too long +/- underestimated the confluence on the 0z run 

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  On 2/28/2023 at 6:39 AM, wxsniss said:

...and fwiw, GFS has objectively been the most consistent for the past 4 runs

Euro has been steadily ticking north and I suspect overshot, perhaps over-amplified the primary that held on too long +/- underestimated the confluence on the 0z run 

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This.

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  On 2/28/2023 at 6:53 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Euro went from the most suppressed model about 4-5 runs ago to the most amped. Lol. 
 

It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow given all of the other guidance trended south at 00z. 

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Euro will cave...wow. This is like old times with you up for the Euro lol

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  On 2/28/2023 at 6:54 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro will cave...wow. This is like old times with you up for the Euro lol

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This feels like the most wintry spell in a year at least for our area.  Nice cold with durable but small pack, overcast, snow every few days.   It will be nice to see it last for a few weeks-not easy this late but certainly possible.

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I think  GEM (toss that QPF, though)/GFS blend is prudent right now....expect two trends this week.

1) Colder.

2) Less Impressive storm.

No way that SW maintains as much coherence as currently modeled on the EURO. That happens, I'll give up my newborn to George for adoption.

I don't think the GEM is awful in terms of its thermal field, but its overdoing the QPF.

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