Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 2/27/2023 at 2:30 PM, jbenedet said:

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That’s ahh a clear trend . 
 

850/925 look plenty cold for now for those who stay on N side of system but the trend is not the friend of those in S SNE . 
 

Let’s see if that continues , reverses etc

 

[jbenedet]

  On 2/27/2023 at 3:09 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That’s ahh a clear trend . 
 

850/925 look plenty cold for now for those who stay on N side of system but the trend is not the friend of those in S SNE . 
 

Let’s see if that continues , reverses etc

 

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850 looks good, but its 925 down you have to worry about most, I believe. Easterly fetch when primary hangs on, and surface high slides east.

And potentially sneaky warm tongues above 850.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 2/27/2023 at 3:14 PM, jbenedet said:

850 looks good, but its 925 down you have to worry about most, I believe. Easterly fetch when primary hangs on, and surface high slides east.

And potentially sneaky warm tongues above 850.

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The high is holding solidly on those maps you posted . Even as the low trends NW ..the high is holding ...I just see a pretty strong  gradient setting up  

[jbenedet]

  On 2/27/2023 at 3:01 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Okay, but.. for winter enthusiasts,  I think it's cold enough - serviceable. 

The anomaly products are less constraining on the outlook for me, when the scalar assessments of the 2-meter ambient temperature, and the 850 thermal layout over the course of the total synoptic awareness/evolution...is deeply cold enough. 

I mean, these synoptic parameters could certainly change in the modeling moving forward... we'll see.

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Where? More specifically?

[jbenedet]

  On 2/27/2023 at 3:20 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The high is holding solidly on those maps you posted . Even as the low trends NW ..the high is holding ...I just see a pretty strong  gradient setting up  

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Ho hum, no kiddin' . 

Re: winter 2022-2023

[Hoth]

I’m curious if there’s ice potential with this one. Would the decent High to the north feed cold surface air down the valley, even if the primary is torching the mid levels? 

[Allsnow]

  On 2/27/2023 at 2:32 PM, jbenedet said:

This one is going to look familiar in terms of the seasonal persistence gradient. 

I don't think you start to feel comfortable with odds of significant wintry precip until to go from PWM, to DAW, to MA/VT border.

 

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Same old same old….trough digging more out west and se ridge trending stronger….this will be a mid west storm 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea trends today are NW. 

[Allsnow]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:00 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea trends today are NW. 

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gfs west of Illinois now 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS kitchen sink storm for SNE....front ender snow to sleet to ZR (interior...rain coast). Almost looks like a juicer version of 2/22-23

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:02 PM, Allsnow said:

gfs west of Illinois now 

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I’m sure we’ll start seeing some ticks se but we’re getting in the range now of seeing the system for what it is. Interior snows, kitchen sink SNE, and rain for the coast.

[MJO812]

Who would have thought? Everyone bashes the GFS and look.

 

 

 

Another storm that trended unfavorable. Smh.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:05 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m sure we’ll start seeing some ticks se but we’re getting in the range now of seeing the system for what it is. 

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There's still a large spread on how the NAO is handling the Quebec confluence to the north. I want to see that spread reduce some before getting confident in solutions.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:07 PM, ORH_wxman said:

There's still a large spread on how the NAO is handling the Quebec confluence to the north. I want to see that spread reduce some before getting confident in solutions.

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Details TBD for sure but I originally thought we could manage an all snow event from NYC to BOS but that’s increasingly less likely now. 

[CoastalWx]

GFS tries to Kraft ern areas after hr 144

[CoastalWx]

Well SNE in general I should say.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:13 PM, CoastalWx said:

GFS tries to Kraft ern areas after hr 144

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Trailing shortwave regenerates snow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:13 PM, CoastalWx said:

GFS tries to Kraft ern areas after hr 144

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Ray just slammed a wet diaper on the floor.

[jbenedet]

  On 2/27/2023 at 3:20 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The high is holding solidly on those maps you posted . Even as the low trends NW ..the high is holding ...I just see a pretty strong  gradient setting up  

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H700 looks like biggest nagging issue for snow accums. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/27/2023 at 3:20 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The high is holding solidly on those maps you posted . Even as the low trends NW ..the high is holding ...I just see a pretty strong  gradient setting up  

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CF just se of me IMO

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:14 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Trailing shortwave regenerates snow.

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Yep. Not bad.

[HinghamBoss]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:17 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yep. Not bad.

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Just let our area get one 6+" storm and I am good heading to the locker room till next year.

[dryslot]

I like it this one for at least an MECS with some upside, Just need to keep expectations in check once again, This one looks to be heading into the seasonal trend of de amplification strength wise after some zoinked runs.

[Torch Tiger]

gfs is a disaster for SNE and N ME (too far N). Not much wiggle room north unfortunately, but wish it'd cut more

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah..that trailing S/W has been looming ... the way it interferes is in question.  It seems it is helping to tip the flow more SW and that carries the 3rd/4th lead more NW... ultimately creating the mangle aggregate clung to IP zr fest.  

I dunno... the orbital view to me hasn't changed. I don't see this getting N of Cleveland really... It's like the GFS has been trying to find ways to squeeze along that axis ever more densely every run. 

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM is a pretty huge hit for SNE...does tickle the sleet line about up to the pike but there's a pretty robust front ender prior to that down south of there.

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM was really suppressed at 00z, so it's not a surprise it came north to be more in line with other guidance.

[jbenedet]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:20 PM, dryslot said:

I like it this one for at least an MECS with some upside, Just need to keep expectations in check once again, This one looks to be heading into the seasonal trend of de amplification strength wise after some zoinked runs.

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Out west to the plains it's trending stronger. 

I think the problem is damage is done on that front, sending the 540 thickness where many are "out of the game". Confluence is there but with background warmth.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:28 PM, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM was really suppressed at 00z, so it's not a surprise it came north to be more in line with other guidance.

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yup... we're struggling to find a consensus here - but there is some sense of really getting an event. Heh...gotta start somewhere.  But that's the take away so far...

we'll see where things go.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:20 PM, dryslot said:

I like it this one for at least an MECS with some upside, Just need to keep expectations in check once again, This one looks to be heading into the seasonal trend of de amplification strength wise after some zoinked runs.

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1 footish is the ceiling here IMO...its not a HECS. I don't like the attenuation and primary struggles. Not complaining...just how I see it.