Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[brooklynwx99]

25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Z icon is SE, TBlizz back in the game. Strong confluence, whiffs SNE. 

actually became a lot stronger with the confluence. the GFS probably won't care though and end up cutting to Chicago lmao

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

actually became a lot stronger with the confluence. the GFS probably won't care though and end up cutting to Chicago lmao

Gfs a little better fwiw. I’d like to see the euro follow. 

[wx2fish]

Gem is still suppressed. Goal posts are pretty wide still. 

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Gem is still suppressed. Goal posts are pretty wide still. 

Wide is an understatement.  It's like throwing a hot dog down a hallway with the guidance lately...or this season 

[dryslot]

3/2 has a bearing on 3/4 of where it will track.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Frustrating day but this remains wide open. Gut says precip type issue coast with MJO phase 7 WAR. Expressed that in new March blog today.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Interesting trend. The s/w north of the lakes has trended away from phasing into the our low and instead begins phasing into the backside of 50/50, strengthening confluence. 
 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/dd83b566-0aa5-4cfa-84a1-639f35934f4c

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I can’t post TT trend gifs atm but here it is 4 runs ago:

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Run it forward to tonight and:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Euro is about 1' west of I 95.

[wxsniss]

0z Euro finds the sweet spot... slowly deamplifies as it shunts east, but a nice hit for much of NE, a tick south of 12z run

[The 4 Seasons]

Good 00Z runs overall.

Euros in a pretty good spot for most, GFS well north (but came south a bit), GEM farthest south and barely a scrape job.

Best to use ensembles at this time lead but thats where the ops are at. 

[weathafella]

I'll take the EPS and run.

[ineedsnow]

6z ICON shifted north big hit

[Whineminster]

It's a beaut clark.  We take. 

[mahk_webstah]

Wpc looks great for all of New England Friday. Uniformly over an inch of liquid equivalent from New York City up to the Canadian border and past Portland snow Probz also quite high for all of New England. Looks like maybe our best region wide snowstorm of the season at least so far.

[CoastalWx]

Still worried about Ptype vs suppression, but 00z runs workable. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still worried about Ptype vs suppression, but 00z runs workable. 

Glad the north trended stopped. Good sign there. Still gotta get this inside 4 days though for more confidence. 

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Glad the north trended stopped. Good sign there. Still gotta get this inside 4 days 1.5 days though for more confidence. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

 

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Glad the north trended stopped. Good sign there. Still gotta get this on the ground though for more confidence. 

 

[CoastalWx]

Well EPS ticked warmer. Looks like a lot of sleet around here.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well EPS ticked warmer. Looks like a lot of sleet around here.

That stinks. Here on the south shore was already on the line.

Starting the 10th both the EPS and GEFS crush the SE ridge may be a good 10 day period.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That stinks. Here on the south shore was already on the line.

Starting the 10th both the EPS and GEFS crush the SE ridge may be a good 10 day period.

This looks like a kitchen sink event for WCT, for now, but that’s fine. Snowpack season starts tomorrow lol. 
 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Good 00Z runs overall.

Euros in a pretty good spot for most, GFS well north (but came south a bit), GEM farthest south and barely a scrape job.

Best to use ensembles at this time lead but thats where the ops are at. 

For what it's worth ...

- the 00z GGEM is a subtle S/weak outlier compared to it's GEPs mean, but the whole mean seems - to me - as though it has too much negative interference.   Not sure why that is...or if that assessment turns out correct.

- the 00z EPS is a classic Miller B, but the low doesn't deepen so well post that commitment. Hmm prooobably owing to the attenuation of the total mechanical manifold of the system, which is a nod to GGEM but it may also be more correct if the GGEM does indeed prove just too heavy handed there.

- the GEFs are doing the same thing, but the entire space is massively so much more powerful than either of the two above... it has to conserve that and ends up sufficiently strong enough to imply a major event (despite a weaker post commited Miller B take over) anyway.  That's differential aspect has been consistent now for days on this event... Interesting.  

Just a fun note on that.. the blend of the 00z and 06z is quintessential. It's fast moving ... taking a Miller B from S Jersey to somewhere between Cape Cod and the BM in just 6 hours, but, ...the region's already been in decent front side overrunning for 6-9 hrs at that point.  It's like a fast moving large system ...so it's still taking time to evolve thru by virtue of vastness.  It just moves an Arklatex low ( meaning pwat rich) along a perfect climo trajectory. Damn, why does that have to be 120 hours, right?

 

[WinterWolf]

32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This looks like a kitchen sink event for WCT, for now, but that’s fine. Snowpack season starts tomorrow lol. 
 

Ya this thing isn’t even remotely figured out.  Ya got Spanks still worrying about tonight’s/tomorrow system lol. 

[jbenedet]

[jbenedet]

This one is going to look familiar in terms of the seasonal persistence gradient. 

I don't think you start to feel comfortable with odds of significant wintry precip until to go from PWM, to DAW, to MA/VT border.

 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Confluence is present but it's battling the SE ridge. 

I think your initial call will be correct unless the confluence really ramps up over the next few days. 

[jbenedet]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Confluence is present but it's battling the SE ridge. 

I think your initial call will be correct unless the confluence really ramps up over the next few days. 

The UL blocking is favorable, but it's not collocated with deep cold. That's what makes this blocking setup much less impressive than the setup for Tues. This also means that you can get favorable surface track, "outside of the warm sector", but ptype issues remain, bc there's a lack of cold to tap.

Southern Canada has been warming since early last week; albeit from a very cold state.

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The UL blocking is favorable, but it's not collocated with deep cold. That's what makes this blocking setup much less impressive than the setup for Tues. This also means that you can get favorable surface track, "outside of the warm sector", but ptype issues remain, bc there's a lack of cold to tap.

Southern Canada has been warming since early last week; albeit from a very cold state.

Okay, but.. for winter enthusiasts,  I think it's cold enough - serviceable. 

The anomaly products are less constraining on the outlook for me, when the scalar assessments of the 2-meter ambient temperature, and the 850 thermal layout over the course of the total synoptic awareness/evolution...is/are deeply cold enough. 

I mean, these synoptic parameters could certainly change in the modeling moving forward... we'll see.