Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is decent. 6 days to hold. Lol.

Worked great last Wednesday.

[Torch Tiger]

so this is the next 20-30"+'er?

 

[Great Snow 1717]

7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

so this is the next 20-30"+'er?

 

of course it is!

[SnoSki14]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Look what happened with tomorrow's storm. The block will force this south .

This one's pretty cut and dry.

Stronger 50/50 equals storm (miller B transfer) while a weaker one equals cutter.

The current trend is towards a weaker 50/50

Additionally given the amount of phasing likely you would need a very strong 50/50. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Look what happened with tomorrow's storm. The block will force this south .

So you are thinking Feb 2010? Too bad we can't see those threads that were on Esstern shame they all got deleted....

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

So you are thinking Feb 2010? Too bad we can't see those threads that were on Esstern shame they all got deleted....

No

[George001]

Gfs has a low in Chicago

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Gfs has a low in Chicago

Southern Illinois to central Ohio to south of Long Island. Only about 300 miles south of Chicago. 

[brooklynwx99]

GFS is a step in the right direction though. lower heights in SE Canada and a weaker vort 

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS is a step in the right direction though. lower heights in SE Canada and a weaker vort 

While ok, the main player is further S and W.  That could offset any lower heights over us.

[George001]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

While ok, the main player is further S and W.  That could offset any lower heights over us.

Yeah, like the Pope mentioned early the shortwave gains latitude. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Yeah, like the Pope mentioned early the shortwave gains latitude. 

All you can do is sit back and watch it play out.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS is a step in the right direction though. lower heights in SE Canada and a weaker vort 

It really can't get more N than Cleveland ~ with what's going on above Lake Superior to W of Nova Scotia.  It can't... That's impenetrable as it is modeled.  If the models someway somehow veer the mid level circulation mode to the SW, than it could... until that happens, it cannot physically get N that approximate latitude. 

Which the 18z GFS is coming around to admitting that... but, it's also pressed really against that latitude... Which tells me, the correction vector is pointed more S-E.  

This run still depicts a major QPF event however, ...only stemmed by the fact that this is somehow a progressive system, despite having at least transitive exertion by the -NAO domain, as is in part evidenced by this...  

 

Granted, transitive means indirect and not directly opposing...so therein is wiggle room but jesus - it tries to evac this thing in like 10 hours. I wouldn't be shocked if future runs demo at least some deceleration ... we'll see on that speculation.  But until that "barrier" jet gets modeled to not be there...this can only go just about due east from this location you see there.  And the consequence of tunneling through the transitive ridge from NE S is with a lot of falling shit from the sky

[Go Kart Mozart]

The parting-shot norlun is still there.  I'm psyched for that.

[Chris12WX]

Did Chicago move? (but I get the point). 

December 2020 originally cut to Minneapolis, ran into a brick wall at the border and gave us a good storm. As long as the primary doesn't cross the border for poutine, then it can work.

[SouthCoastMA]

18z EPS was more amped vs 12z

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

18z EPS was more amped vs 12z

What a huge 24 hour trend north by the EURO

May be the furthest northern now.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

What a huge 24 hour trend north by the EURO

May be the furthest northern now.

Interesting how euro can lead the way with 2/28 while gfs dragged behind, then a complete flip several days later. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Interesting how euro can lead the way with 2/28 while gfs dragged behind, then a complete flip several days later. 

Boned of different directions for me

[SnoSki14]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Boned of different directions for me

I can't wait for this winter to die a fiery death along with the Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Interesting how euro can lead the way with 2/28 while gfs dragged behind, then a complete flip several days later. 

GFS led the way in medium range with both systems. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Interesting how euro can lead the way with 2/28 while gfs dragged behind, then a complete flip several days later. 

This thing is still far off.  A couple days ago Tuesday’s storm was a monster, and an AEMATT jackpot, and. now it’s congrats Western CT with a much more subdued system. This will probably get way toned down too…whatever the outcome. 

[tunafish]

Didn't realize we were at verification time with either system.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Didn't realize we were at verification time with either system.

you would think we'd learn after the medium range debacle for the Monday storm

doesn't look as good today, but I would not be surprised to see confluence increase again with the blocking finally in place. either way, even with the crappier solutions, a front-end thump is still possible, similar to what the 12z ECMWF OP showed earlier

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Boned of different directions for me

I’m taking a massive step back after this last event. Just kind of sitting on the outside observing, one foot out the door.

 

I hope someone cashes in, but this feels very similar to a story we’ve seen a lot this winter. 
 

The euro trends in the last 24 hours say a lot. We’ve had a lot of KU type looks that have turned into FU looks fast this year 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m taking a massive step back after this last event. Just kind of sitting on the outside observing, one foot out the door.

 

I hope someone cashes in, but this feels very similar to a story we’ve seen a lot this winter. 
 

The euro trends in the last 24 hours say a lot. We’ve had a lot of KU type looks that have turned into FU looks fast this year 

See you at 12z.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This thing is still far off.  A couple days ago Tuesday’s storm was a monster, and an AEMATT jackpot, and. now it’s congrats Western CT with a much more subdued system. This will probably get way toned down too…whatever the outcome. 

I don’t think we can say 3/4 will behave like 2/28 though. Possible, sure. I’m not verifying anything either, just an observation of model behavior in the D5 range. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

See you at 12z.

He’ll be up and lurking at the 0z runs.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Z icon is SE, TBlizz back in the game. Strong confluence, whiffs SNE.