RU848789 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 42 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looks like they're leaning towards advisory for the immediate N suburbs and N from there. Based on today it should probably be one tier south to include the N shore and N parts of the city. There could be a pretty big difference between the south and north shores in this one because we have an ESE surface wind. The ocean is the coldest it gets all year but it still makes a difference in these marginal setups. Same in the City: one of those storms that could put down 2" at JFK, 4" at LGA/CPK and 6" in Riverdale. Same in my neck of the woods, where we could see 2" in Edison, 4" in Summit and 6" in Parsippany. At this point, I'll take 2" and then rain, just to see some snow for a few hours, but I won't turn down 4-6" either, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 41 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Same in the City: one of those storms that could put down 2" at JFK, 4" at LGA/CPK and 6" in Riverdale. Same in my neck of the woods, where we could see 2" in Edison, 4" in Summit and 6" in Parsippany. At this point, I'll take 2" and then rain, just to see some snow for a few hours, but I won't turn down 4-6" either, lol. I don't think it's going to be cold enough or juicy enough to get 6 inches in Riverdale (And I'm only focused on that because I live right near Riverdale) but I do agree with the overall point that there could be some noticeable differences across the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Looks like the bronx might be the place to be if you want decent accumulations over 3 inches in the city. colder models always make me happy esp inside 3 days. Its looking better every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: NWS still not buying more than a few inches south of 80 and has 1" or less south of 78, but they did move a little snowier vs. this morning (when they had no snow south of 78) and they do tend to not like making big jumps with model jumps, which kind of makes sense... Seems a bit more realistic than the first map. Hard to believe that places like Southern Westchester might be getting their first WWA advisory all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, USCG RS said: NYC plays it cards right and we might actually see an average season. In theory, we could see an above average snowfall after this dismal winter. That would take 29.4 inches more of snow from this point forward. That would be a top 5 period going forward through April. I doubt it but I’d love it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: That would take 29.4 inches more of snow from this point forward. That would be a top 5 period going forward through April. I doubt it but I’d love it. It would be the equalizer in this crazy winter. The cold air might even stay in to mid spring,wherever the cold and warm meet ..alot of precip will fall..i wouldnt discount anything after watching snow fall in southern california,and still snowing in some parts . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 So the EPS has 100% chance of 1". GFS is 50%. 1" of what? Skew T shows when there is precipitation the freezing level rises to 300 feet above the surface anyway. High water content and it will disappear w/o the slightest urging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: It would be the equalizer in this crazy winter. The cold air might even stay in to mid spring,wherever the cold and warm meet ..alot of precip will fall..i wouldnt discount anything after watching snow fall in southern california,and still snowing in some parts . It's hard to predict 25+ inches of snow during a time period where NYC historically has never had a 12+ storm. Would need to see many different snow events in March for this to happen. Nothing is impossible but the odds are unlikely. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: It's hard to predict 25+ inches of snow during a time period where NYC historically has never had a 12+ storm. Would need to see many different snow events in March for this to happen. Nothing is impossible but the odds are unlikely. No kidding but you never know. The volatility will be there,just need the right mix. Also a delayed winter might mean a change in our planets atmosphere with a connection to our core and magnetic fields associated with it. Basically our planet is going thru a lot of changes that also affect our weather,not including man made climate change..i will say if it ever snows in june then we've all had it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 hours ago, psv88 said: Should I take the snowblower out of the box? Maybe if I start-or attempt to start- mine, it would make your snowblower stir in its' cardboard cave ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 4 hours ago, psv88 said: Should I take the snowblower out of the box? Haven't you done enough damage already just by buying the damned thing? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Euro looks to have held serve but got a bit drier Edit its a bit wetter than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 18z euro colder again this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Euro looks to have held serve but got a bit drier It’s wetter and colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s wetter and colder Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 4 hours ago, psv88 said: Should I take the snowblower out of the box? Don't you dare lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Euro maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Nam coming in colder again. Thump 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 NAM starts with snow north of 195 in NJ (except for right on the shore), and sleet in philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nam coming in colder again. Thump NAM (using Kuchera) gives NYC 1.5". Almost nothing for us here in Middlesex county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 NAM at 63 hrs (rain-snow line has moved to Putnam county by this time). Totals will be lower due to mixing/low ratios near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: NAM (using Kuchera) gives NYC 1.5". Almost nothing for us here in Middlesex county. Sleet/snow…still trending. I get your hesitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: NAM (using Kuchera) gives NYC 1.5". Almost nothing for us here in Middlesex county. Yeah it got worse for those south of 78 but better just north of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, ThatHurricane said: NAM at 63 hrs (rain-snow line has moved to Putnam county by this time). Totals will be lower due to mixing/low ratios near the coast Looks maybe very slightly colder than 18z. Very big north shore/south shore difference. I get 4" (using 10-1, in reality it's probably 3"), the barrier islands maybe an inch. Which I can believe-ESE winds are no good any time of the year for snow there but especially when we have such a marginal airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 NAM looks good from northern parts of NYC on north. Sharp cutoff in southern NYC. Think it’s still playing catch-up anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looks maybe very slightly colder than 18z. Very big north shore/south shore difference. I get 4", the barrier islands maybe an inch. Which I can believe-ESE winds are no good any time of the year for snow there but especially when we have such a marginal airmass. Same in the city, it has 4” north bronx and less than 1” for jfk. (I'm going by Kuchera maps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 FWIW, the 0z HRRR which goes out to 48hrs looks pretty cold and there's snow down to Philly-Reading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 I wouldn't be overanalyzing what the shitty Nam shows, especially in it's longer range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Interesting gradient in NYC on the models - although in my experience from when I lived in NYC, that usually doesn't hold, and a changeover to rain around JFK is usually soon followed by a changeover to rain or at least sleet in Manhattan/Bronx 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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