Allsnow Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Nyc with more then Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Holy crap...I forgot all about these topics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: Euro keeps trending stronger with block and high exactly what we needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Biggest event of the year incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, tdp146 said: Some folks getting mood flakes today. So far all I’ve got is mood salt that the town put on the street. Son is at the Bronx zoo and saw flakes, daughter is at a pet expo in PA near Harris and it's snowing there. Nothing here; sun peeking out. Pretty typical even in big events to get somewhat shafted over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nyc with more then Boston Wow, sucks for them. I said “golden unless there’s a major change in the evolution”, looks like the major change is happening. The storm just kinda dies out as it keeps going east into the confluence because the shortwave peters out, and there’s no phasing/interaction to deepen a coastal low. But hey, good for us then. We have less than 1” for most in this sub forum. I wouldn’t expect anything major near the coast but a nice 2-4” or 3-6” type plowable event would be a godsend this winter. “Golden” has shifted to interior CT and Hudson Valley lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Hr 66 mod Snow all of metro. Sleet down to phl Once you start seeing frozen precip down to Philly and Southern NJ its a good sign for at least something for us. I'm still not buying the Euro's all snow solution but I also am growing confident that uptons map blanking the city entirely will be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Doesn't look like quite all snow for NYC on the Euro but pretty close at least for northern parts. Would be interested to see Kuchera maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Once you start seeing frozen precip down to Philly and Southern NJ its a good sign for at least something for us. I'm still not buying the Euro's all snow solution but I also am growing confident that uptons map blanking the city entirely will be wrong. The euros as alone as the gfs on this one. Right now somewhere in between seems likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The euros as alone as the gfs on this one. Right now somewhere in between seems likely Agree the Euro and American models will mess with your head lol, I trust the Canadian models most. However they are showing sleet close to Philly and not blanking the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The euros as alone as the gfs on this one. Right now somewhere in between seems likely Yeah I'm not counting on getting a few inches of snow right now just because the Euro looks good. Other models don't look as good, and it's hard for me to be very optimistic about an event when we don't have much cold air in place before the storm. This could easily end up being more sleet too. But at least we can say the Euro keeps hope alive and we have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Doesn't look like quite all snow for NYC on the Euro but pretty close at least for northern parts. Would be interested to see Kuchera maps. The 10:1 map has about 4 inches for NYC, so I would guess the Kuchera would be somewhere between 2 and 3 inches. It's not as if this Euro run is showing that much snow for NYC, but it's certainly better than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah I'm not counting on getting a few inches of snow right now just because the Euro looks good. Other models don't look as good, and it's hard for me to be very optimistic about an event when we don't have much cold air in place before the storm. This could easily end up being more sleet too. But at least we can say the Euro keeps hope alive and we have a chance. Euro really squeezes the block and high more than the other models. I don’t like how the ukmet went away from it. I expect more sleet here then anything 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Doesn't look like quite all snow for NYC on the Euro but pretty close at least for northern parts. Would be interested to see Kuchera maps. Majority is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Does anyone have the EURO Kutchera? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro really squeezes the block and high more than the other models. I don’t like how the ukmet went away from it. I expect more sleet here then anything Yep, the way it gets NYC so cold for the event is that the S/W dampens out and gets chewed up between the block and SE ridge. A stronger S/W and therefore more precip would mean a further north/warm outcome because there would be more WAA. So if somehow we do get mostly snow there's a hard ceiling on what we can expect. Our ceiling is probably a 2-4, 3-5" type event. And other models disagree and have it warmer so we'll have to see where it trends over the next day. You're right that sleetfest is probably the most likely outcome right now near the city. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 22 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yep, the way it gets NYC so cold for the event is that the S/W dampens out and gets chewed up between the block and SE ridge. A stronger S/W and therefore more precip would mean a further north/warm outcome because there would be more WAA. So if somehow we do get mostly snow there's a hard ceiling on what we can expect. Our ceiling is probably a 2-4, 3-5" type event. And other models disagree and have it warmer so we'll have to see where it trends over the next day. You're right that sleetfest is probably the most likely outcome right now near the city. It is starting to get exhausting tracking a storm with a ceiling of 3-5 inches but in this winter that would be 3 to 5 times most peoples totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 24 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yep, the way it gets NYC so cold for the event is that the S/W dampens out and gets chewed up between the block and SE ridge. A stronger S/W and therefore more precip would mean a further north/warm outcome because there would be more WAA. So if somehow we do get mostly snow there's a hard ceiling on what we can expect. Our ceiling is probably a 2-4, 3-5" type event. And other models disagree and have it warmer so we'll have to see where it trends over the next day. You're right that sleetfest is probably the most likely outcome right now near the city. Agree. I think the north shore might be in for something other than sleet? Lots of dry air funneling down from sne which is killing their snow chances but helping us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Eps mean 100% for more then. Inch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: I'm filing a disclaimer complaint with Upton if CPK/NYC gets 1 inch of sleet with this and then adds 1.5 or less elsewhere and we break the record lol....sleet normally counts as snow...well should I say OFFICIALLY does but in this case we should make an exception if it ruins the record I'll countersue, lol. I love sleet and think we should multiply what falls by 3 to get to about 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 26 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: It is starting to get exhausting tracking a storm with a ceiling of 3-5 inches but in this winter that would be 3 to 5 times most peoples totals. Try 10x. 4” would be 10x Central Park’s total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Should I take the snowblower out of the box? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 25 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Agree. I think the north shore might be in for something other than sleet? Lots of dry air funneling down from sne which is killing their snow chances but helping us We’ll see. I’m in a better place than most of the city and definitely south shore but it’s not worth a ton. If the WAA isn’t too intense maybe we can stay snow. Stronger WAA means more precip but also more sleet/rain. I’ll gladly take a few inches if it means we can stay snow. Rather that than heavy precip that flips to rain like everything else. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: The euros as alone as the gfs on this one. Right now somewhere in between seems likely This may be the usual head fake south we see on these events at this range then immediately they go north again inside 48. The problem here though is the S/W is getting crappier and the blocking is becoming stronger. Its possible this is a legit change and probably why I'd be wary of hoping the next system does not end up like the ICON has being over North Carolina 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 wow if this verifies the anti snow troll posters will be upset... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 31 minutes ago, psv88 said: Should I take the snowblower out of the box? No you will jinx yourself. Wait til it snows then wrestle with it and try to get it working. And then it probably won't work.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 34 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Try 10x. 4” would be 10x Central Park’s total. I'd rather nothing at all than sleet, but its somewhat better than freezing rain. It will at least look like winter out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, weatherpruf said: I'd rather nothing at all than sleet, but its somewhat better than freezing rain. It will at least look like winter out. I’ll take anything, seriously. Sleet is annoying but at least it lasts a while. I just don’t want the sleet/snow for 30 minutes to a washout it was looking like and could still end up if the GFS/NAM end up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Whatever falls will melt immediately next week anyway. Temps back to the 40s and 50s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: Whatever falls will melt immediately next week anyway. Temps back to the 40s and 50s Yes but expected in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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