North and West Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Right I dont go by the artificial DJF boundary either but by the entire season. I do think 01-02 was a more historic winter than 72-73 though because it was warmer. Agreed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Even if they see 0 today they probably see something with the storm in 5 days...I think at this stage even staying top 5 will be tough to pull off, even 4 inches between both storms nearly takes them out of that if the March 1992 analog works out we'll get a couple more around the middle of the month and right around the equinox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, jm1220 said: NYC finished with 5” or so in 97-98 not 0.4”. The all time record is 2.8” in 1972-73 which would still be in danger if NAM is right. Yup they meant to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Right I dont go by the artificial DJF boundary either but by the entire season. I do think 01-02 was a more historic winter than 72-73 though because it was warmer. Yes 01-02 set the standard for horrible winters that this one still beats as of Feb 27th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 22 hours ago, LibertyBell said: It's good to get all the extremes in. I used to use White Plains to gage Northern Bronx and Northern Nassau County weather and that's probably not that accurate. Bronx Zoo is really good, now we just need something for Staten Island lol Yeah, White Plains isn't very good for the Bx or even for some of urban southern Westchester either. HPN isn't actually in the city of White Plains but a wooded area straddling the CT border. The low temps can be a bit colder than downtown White Plains. An offical site at the Zoo would be nice, or NYBG. Bx Zoo does have a PWS (maybe 2). They use it for the zip line/treetop adventure area they have now, and weather conditions are important for operations. From what I've seen it seems pretty accurate. It's very similar to LGA, which is 4 -5 miles due south anyway. Slightly cooler at night sometimes but not significantly so, which makes sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I just looked at the NAM and I don’t even know what to think of it. It’s been such a lousy model but sometimes it’s right in these scenarios. Latest HRRR looks good. Does flip however a solid thump before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Borrowed from our NE Friends (technically my forum) 10 to 1 so shave a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Damn so HRRR dried out a bit. 3-4” for the island. In this winter we take and run. Expecting 2-3” of slop out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 I am so excited to this!! My son was jumping up and down. Hopefully we both get tomorrow off to head out to ski! Looks like 6-8 for me right now from guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Borrowed from our NE Friends (technically my forum) 10 to 1 so shave a bit. The Euro might be too cold in a situation like this with strong WAA. Hopefully I’m wrong. It’s pretty likely at this juncture that at least NYC, LI and maybe close to I-80 get scalped for a while. Hopefully it doesn’t shave too much off but the NAM would probably be mostly sleet on the north shore and sleet to rain on the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Damn so HRRR dried out a bit. 3-4” for the island. In this winter we take and run. Expecting 2-3” of slop out here. If it totally covers the grass I’d call that something of a win. When we see these warm layers start showing up in a SWFE they 95% of the time happen. And at least sleet lasts longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The Euro might be too cold in a situation like this with strong WAA. Hopefully I’m wrong. It’s pretty likely at this juncture that at least NYC, LI and maybe close to I-80 get scalped for a while. Hopefully it doesn’t shave too much off but the NAM would probably be mostly sleet on the north shore and sleet to rain on the south shore. I don't think any model does not have a thump of snow before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tristateweatherFB Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 We need this hrrr to show it this evening. Hrrr range is too early. I been talking behind the scenes about how I don’t lie the look of Sref and nam. The nam usually does well in this set up. Need it the nam to come to the south. Since the Sref got worse for snow lovers I would expect to see the nam to be the same or worse in the next few minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 12z nam coming In colder 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: I don't think any model does not have a thump of snow before the changeover. The Ukmet lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: I don't think any model does not have a thump of snow before the changeover. Hopefully you’re right and it would also help keep the warm air at bay for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 The NAM is 1-3 on the front end for the metro. It does have sleet to Orange County and rain to Westchester. It could be right but also the RGEM has been so steady and colder that I’m not taking the NAM too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Nam improved...mostly it got wetter but slightly colder 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: The Ukmet lol Meh that was one run and I don't trust it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tristateweatherFB Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said: We need this hrrr to show it this evening. Hrrr range is too early. I been talking behind the scenes about how I don’t lie the look of Sref and nam. The nam usually does well in this set up. Need it the nam to come to the south. Since the Sref got worse for snow lovers I would expect to see the nam to be the same or worse in the next few minutes. Nam looking better which to me is a great great sign for nyc and li ppl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam improved...mostly it got wetter but slightly colder Yea I think expect 1-3 inches for the City. Anything more would be a pleasant surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Yea I think expect 1-3 inches for the City. Anything more would be a pleasant surprise. At least it didn’t go the other direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Wow NAM much much better for the entire island. Doubles amounts. Concensus now in the 3-4” amounts for most of the island. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Nams finally get a clue…you really can’t use that model outside 24 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: At least it didn’t go the other direction. I don’t see this being a last minute disaster scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 GEFS look much warmerThis isn’t “much warmer” and it’s the best look we’ve had all season outside of December’s -NAO -AO +PNA regime (which was still a fail) It’s cold enough and workable for snow. There is a very major difference here versus what we’ve been dealing with. Notice the southeast ridge is non existent? Can thank the feature out in the pacific for that. It causes just enough of a reaction in the SW that the SER ends up getting squashed entirely, allowing the boundary to finally settle further south. This should be the best window of the season with an active STJ, suppressed SER, an eroding Niña, and a legit -NAO. .Feature X is what I’m referring to. Causes Y, which then squashes the SER (Z) IF this look pans out, we could get that long awaited KU 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nams finally get a clue…you really can’t use that model outside 24 hours Yes, it was actually better a decade ago when you could use it at 48 hours with reasonable confidence. Remember how great it did with January 2016? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, psv88 said: Wow NAM much much better for the entire island. Doubles amounts. Concensus now in the 3-4” amounts for most of the island. Has more of a front end burst which helps a good amount. It still warms up the mid levels overnight and flips us to sleet. But after a few inches falls already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Has more of a front end burst which helps a good amount. It still warms up the mid levels overnight and flips us to sleet. But after a few inches falls already. That's our best hope. We can't have it come in light or spotty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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