lee59 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 WWA for all of Long Island and the city. Ct. shore north WSWarning. 29.7 degrees here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 WWA from just east of the Hudson to the Ct. border from Newburg north. Either side of that line is WSWarning. Does not make much sense to me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 WSW up, but only because we are part of Morris County. 27 degrees now with sun. Looking forward to tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Don't see a huge change in the 6z models except on the southern edges where the meso models may be cutting back a bit. NAM still looks pretty lousy in general south of the favored areas in CT/upstate, hope it's too warm. GFS looked good. The southern edge south of I-78 and south shore is going to be the toughest spot where it could easily be some slush to rain if it ends up a little warmer. Almost nowcast time, I'd say we have until 12z runs to see what trends we have. The last second north bump is always a threat here and even my area/northern NYC has to look out for that. If you've been bickering and/or calling premature bust and wondering where your post went, I deleted it. Take that crap to banter or better yet don't post it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah looking like a non event now south of 78. Oh well at least it's almost spring Almost! Courtesy of the MA forum. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Almost! Courtesy of the MA forum. Mid month looks prime March is going to be cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 About this storm for areas with borderline temps - it will come down to intensity. If less intensity will be tough with the temps. If it comes in like a wall it will overcome temps. Going with 1 to 3 for CPK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Almost! Courtesy of the MA forum. GEFS look much warmer 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Yeah we're gonna need one of those rare cases where the 3km NAM severely busts inside of 18 hours which I feel about 1 of every 5 of these sort of events it does...it had 2 events last winter where it respectively showed a torch and a freezer and it was totally wrong both times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: GEFS look much warmer Still below average and cold enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Also, when you see sleet on a model it does not always mean no accumulation. It could mean 75% snow 25% sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah we're gonna need one of those rare cases where the 3km NAM severely busts inside of 18 hours which I feel about 1 of every 5 of these sort of events it does...it had 2 events last winter where it respectively showed a torch and a freezer and it was totally wrong both times Yeah hopefully its warm but I'm not optimistic when it usually sniffs out these mid level warm layers better. It flips essentially all of the city and LI to sleet pretty quickly with the warm tongue at 800mb. There may actually be more snow at the end as the coastal low takes over if it's right. Futility record would still very much be in play if it's right although maybe 1" or so would fall as sleet. If we see the sleet line surging north at us later tonight we'll know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 I am just blown away by how insanely cold the Euro soundings are for LGA...even with a 1C error which is standard to assume even today with models with SW-W flow aloft in a WAA event it would still be all snow but I feel the last few years the Euro blows these events almost all the time...the only one it nailed was 11/2018 and that made sense since it was a classic S-N mover with the high over Maine 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Also, when you see sleet on a model it does not always mean no accumulation. It could mean 75% snow 25% sleet. It has a nasty warm layer around 800mb overnight. It's worse than the other models but it'll likely be the closest to correct. NYC and my area at least would definitely be sleet on that and the south shore and East Brunswick area etc would probably just be rain. You're likely good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: It has a nasty warm layer around 800mb overnight. It's worse than the other models but it'll likely be the closest to correct. NYC and my area at least would definitely be sleet on that and the south shore and East Brunswick area etc would probably just be rain. You're likely good. For CPK it still depends on the intensity of the thump before the change. That initial band will make or break the forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yeah hopefully its warm but I'm not optimistic when it usually sniffs out these mid level warm layers better. It flips essentially all of the city and LI to sleet pretty quickly with the warm tongue at 800mb. There may actually be more snow at the end as the coastal low takes over if it's right. Futility record would still very much be in play if it's right although maybe 1" or so would fall as sleet. If we see the sleet line surging north at us later tonight we'll know. The NAM however is probably majorly busting on the start time which could impact things...I highly doubt its not snowing by 01Z and it may even be earlier than that...the NAM does not have the slow bias it once did but it still does tend to be 1-2 hours too slow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I am just blown away by how insanely cold the Euro soundings are for LGA...even with a 1C error which is standard to assume even today with models with SW-W flow aloft in a WAA event it would still be all snow but I feel the last few years the Euro blows these events almost all the time...the only one it nailed was 11/2018 and that made sense since it was a classic S-N mover with the high over Maine What are your thoughts for CPK accumulation wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: For CPK it still depends on the intensity of the thump before the change. That initial band will make or break the forecast. Yeah if we get a shredded up initial burst, the sleet line will race north and we'll accumulate less anyway. If it comes in like a wall it will fight back the warm air for a while and accumulate faster. I'm never ever optimistic about SWFEs here as you can tell, but we do get the ones that can snow here every few years or so. It's been about 4 years since the 11/2018 good bust... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, lee59 said: WWA for all of Long Island and the city. Ct. shore north WSWarning. 29.7 degrees here. They started very conservative and now almost seem bullish with totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 27 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I am just blown away by how insanely cold the Euro soundings are for LGA...even with a 1C error which is standard to assume even today with models with SW-W flow aloft in a WAA event it would still be all snow but I feel the last few years the Euro blows these events almost all the time...the only one it nailed was 11/2018 and that made sense since it was a classic S-N mover with the high over Maine I am almost sure sleet will mix in at some point at LGA and likely even well north of LGA. Hopefully it can dump before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: They started very conservative and now almost seem bullish with totals. Some meso guidance is fairly bullish...the 00z HREF mean which was very good last winter but IMO has not been as good across the Midwest/Lakes/NE this winter has a mean of 5 at LGA and 3 at JFK with maxes of 7 and 6 respectively but a 25 mile shift would be 2/1 and 3/2 respectively. I was still surprised to see how aggressive that mean was though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 NWS has 3 to 5 for CPK while TWC has less than 1 inch. They did just state on TV they will likely go above the 0.4 of 97/98. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: NWS has 3 to 5 for CPK while TWC has less than 1 inch. They did just state on TV they will likely go above the 0.4 of 97/98. Even if they see 0 today they probably see something with the storm in 5 days...I think at this stage even staying top 5 will be tough to pull off, even 4 inches between both storms nearly takes them out of that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: NWS has 3 to 5 for CPK while TWC has less than 1 inch. They did just state on TV they will likely go above the 0.4 of 97/98. The only way CPK is less than an inch is it becomes a complete bust either in terms of sleet fest or very dry and white rain. Either is still possible but unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: NWS has 3 to 5 for CPK while TWC has less than 1 inch. They did just state on TV they will likely go above the 0.4 of 97/98. NYC finished with 5” or so in 97-98 not 0.4”. The all time record is 2.8” in 1972-73 which would still be in danger if NAM is right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 51 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: About this storm for areas with borderline temps - it will come down to intensity. If less intensity will be tough with the temps. If it comes in like a wall it will overcome temps. Going with 1 to 3 for CPK. night time will help 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: NWS has 3 to 5 for CPK while TWC has less than 1 inch. They did just state on TV they will likely go above the 0.4 of 97/98. 97/98 finished wirh 5.5 though, the DJF is an artificial boundary created by humans, we should go with the overall season numbers It's why 01-02 was the historically bad winter here not 97-98 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: NYC finished with 5” or so in 97-98 not 0.4”. The all time record is 2.8” in 1972-73 which would still be in danger if NAM is right. I just looked at the NAM and I don’t even know what to think of it. It’s been such a lousy model but sometimes it’s right in these scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 39 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yeah if we get a shredded up initial burst, the sleet line will race north and we'll accumulate less anyway. If it comes in like a wall it will fight back the warm air for a while and accumulate faster. I'm never ever optimistic about SWFEs here as you can tell, but we do get the ones that can snow here every few years or so. It's been about 4 years since the 11/2018 good bust... Would this be more like 11/2018 or 2/2008? Both were good busts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: NYC finished with 5” or so in 97-98 not 0.4”. The all time record is 2.8” in 1972-73 which would still be in danger if NAM is right. Right I dont go by the artificial DJF boundary either but by the entire season. I do think 01-02 was a more historic winter than 72-73 though because it was warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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