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2/28/23 storm threat


Rjay
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I was just outside in pajamas and t shirt putting stuff away in the shed. Sky is clear. I do not believe this will be anything at all here.

we're going to snow for sure now we have consensus on pretty much all models unless you're south of tom's river you're not getting any snow otherwise 2-4 to nyc, 3-6 nyc 4-8 hudson valley


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24 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:


we're going to snow for sure now we have consensus on pretty much all models unless you're south of tom's river you're not getting any snow otherwise 2-4 to nyc, 3-6 nyc 4-8 hudson valley


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Well I have someone in Brick who wanted to know. Sounds like they don't have anything to worry about.

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25 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:


we're going to snow for sure now we have consensus on pretty much all models unless you're south of tom's river you're not getting any snow otherwise 2-4 to nyc, 3-6 nyc 4-8 hudson valley


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Nothing is ever sure when it comes to snow. I have had heavy snow warnings canceled a number of times; seen blizzards canceled more than a few times,  and seen snowstorms refuse to move beyond a certain line despite warnings for heavy snow, leaving us with nothing at all. And those were all sure bets until the last minute. This here isn't even a "storm" as far as I can tell. Will be nice to get something out of it, but it sounds like even if we do, rain and warm temps will make quick work of it, so we better get out and enjoy it early if something happens.

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1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

HRRRNE_prec_ptype_027.png.52ebc2b6624d04c7be22d46647474f9c.png.8d4fc6e656a5efe1c157fca01420d776.pngHRRRNE_prec_ptype_032.png.9248b8a241a48f723f6618aa0ca7712c.png.5a09b27d8df4a7fb35298642dbd7403b.png

We could do quite well if we can keep the warm air away since we're closer to the developing coastal low to take advantage of some of the lift/frontogenesis that will develop close by, and not be hindered by the dry air further north. The south shore will be a really tough call since as you can see the rain gets close. We need to veer the winds ENE to keep the surface warming to a minimum which we need the coastal low for. Thankfully the primary low weakened from the mid 980s we were seeing a few days ago near Toronto to what you see there over Lake Erie. Not great but we can live with it if it's dying out and the coastal low takes over. 

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4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam is still quite warm. More over the city than west milford

Yep, still the warm goalpost. Part of it seems to be too that the dynamics don't get going like the HRRR has so we have the showery crap precip shield that would be prone to mixing with sleet. QPF is something like 0.5-0.6 on the Nam vs 0.8" on the HRRR. 

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