2/28/23 storm threat

[Allsnow]

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem not backing down..actually got snowier

Same with icon 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Upton’s updated snow map.

 

Surprised no advisory here. Advisory criteria is 2” or greater in 24 hours and officially the N Shore/NYC is above that? 

[jm1220]

GFS looks unchanged, maybe a little colder. 

[MJO812]

Gfs looks good

[forkyfork]

i think 3-6 for all away from the usual coastal warm spots

[MJO812]

Just now, forkyfork said:

3-6 for all away from the usual coastal warm spots

1-3 here 

[Allsnow]

Nyc might get more then Boston from this…crazy turn of events 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs is definitely earlier than euro. Probably snowing by 5 or 6

[jm1220]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Nyc might get more then Boston from this…crazy turn of events 

All about where the sleet line makes it to, as usual. The dual pol radar'll be our best friend or worst enemy tomorrow night. NAM is more aggressive with the mid level warmth as usual but it can sometimes overdo it. If the coastal low takes over fairly early it should help mute the northward warm push. If we have shredded up precip the warm mid level air will have an easier time getting a foothold. And I do buy the big difference between south and north shore snow/frozen amounts here. Hopefully everyone gets a decent event and for most it'll multiply our seasonal snow total by several times or more so there's that. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

All about where the sleet line makes it to, as usual. The dual pol radar'll be our best friend or worst enemy tomorrow night. NAM is more aggressive with the mid level warmth as usual but it can sometimes overdo it. If the coastal low takes over fairly early it should help mute the northward warm push. If we have shredded up precip the warm mid level air will have an easier time getting a foothold. And I do buy the big difference between south and north shore snow/frozen amounts here. Hopefully everyone gets a decent event and for most it'll multiply our seasonal snow total by several times or more so there's that. 

Agree. Just give me 1-2 inches of snow and I’ll be happy. After that it’s time for spring imo. But I doubt Mother Nature corporates 

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

All about where the sleet line makes it to, as usual. The dual pol radar'll be our best friend or worst enemy tomorrow night. NAM is more aggressive with the mid level warmth as usual but it can sometimes overdo it. If the coastal low takes over fairly early it should help mute the northward warm push. If we have shredded up precip the warm mid level air will have an easier time getting a foothold. And I do buy the big difference between south and north shore snow/frozen amounts here. Hopefully everyone gets a decent event and for most it'll multiply our seasonal snow total by several times or more so there's that. 

The NAO is flexing. Likewise, I agree that the NAM tends to overdue mid level warmth. 

As far as a thump, h7 actually looks pretty primed over the metro area. It appears we are becoming the battle ground, which bodes well for higher end snow for the area. 

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Agree. Just give me 1-2 inches of snow and I’ll be happy. After that it’s time for spring imo. But I doubt Mother Nature corporates 

I'll gladly take snow through mid March. Late March, when it's time to start the vegetable garden, is when I'm done rooting for snow. 

Do you think 2 to 3 is a good possibility for our area tomorrow night? That's what I'm thinking right now. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

I'll gladly take snow through mid March. Late March, when it's time to start the vegetable garden, is when I'm done rooting for snow. 

Do you think 2 to 3 is a good possibility for our area? That's what I'm thinking right now. 

I like 1-3 for our area. Hopefully we get a few more hours of snow to get over 3. Your area will do better then mby 

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I like 1-3 for our area. Hopefully we get a few more hours of snow to get over 3. Your area will do better then mby 

Yeah there will likely be a sharp cutoff somewhere in Middlesex county. Hopefully you will not get much less since you're slightly south of my area. 

[sussexcountyobs]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

1-3 here 

Your thoughts on NW Jersey in northeast Sussex county 1200' elevation and above?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Your thoughts on NW Jersey in northeast Sussex county 1200' elevation and above?

A few inches is likely

[donsutherland1]

100% of EPS members continue to show 1" or more snow for New York City. The 20z National Blend of Models ranges from 1.2" at JFK Airport to 2.4" at Central Park.

[Doorman]

https://digital.weather.gov/

[weatherpruf]

42 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I'll gladly take snow through mid March. Late March, when it's time to start the vegetable garden, is when I'm done rooting for snow. 

Do you think 2 to 3 is a good possibility for our area tomorrow night? That's what I'm thinking right now. 

Same. Just got my first batch of zuke seeds in; couldn't find the self pollinating types in the store this year. If i use anything but, I get very few zukes. But I won't plant them til late May. Broccoli can go in much earlier. Don't bother with cabbage anymore. Too cheap in the store. 

[weatherpruf]

40 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah there will likely be a sharp cutoff somewhere in Middlesex county. Hopefully you will not get much less since you're slightly south of my area. 

The cutoff will be around Woodbridge. Always is, whether the storm is north or south.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

i think 3-6 for all away from the usual coastal warm spots

I agree. Maybe isolated 6+ NW of I287. 

[winterwx21]

13 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Same. Just got my first batch of zuke seeds in; couldn't find the self pollinating types in the store this year. If i use anything but, I get very few zukes. But I won't plant them til late May. Broccoli can go in much earlier. Don't bother with cabbage anymore. Too cheap in the store. 

I usually plant the cold-sensitive stuff like tomatoes in early May. I've never had a problem with frost damaging plants in early May, but no question it's best to wait until May. I'd never plant that stuff in April. I look forward to planting cold-tolerant stuff like broccoli and lettuce in late March. Looking forward to gardening season, but hoping we have some snow to enjoy before then. Hopefully tomorrow night will work out, and maybe we can pull off another event or two in early to mid March. 

[sussexcountyobs]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

A few inches is likely

Thanks. Hoping for at least 4.5 to bring our pathetic season total to 20 inches.

[WestBabylonWeather]

I hope the rain snow line doesn’t get too far above fire island 

[Allsnow]

57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

100% of EPS members continue to show 1" or more snow for New York City. The 20z National Blend of Models ranges from 1.2" at JFK Airport to 2.4" at Central Park.

Money 

[jm1220]

28 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I hope the rain snow line doesn’t get too far above fire island 

Where you are might be dicey especially if you're south of Sunrise Highway. That's like tier 1 of the area to get screwed. Tier 2 is there to the LIE, Tier 3 is north of the LIE and favored in winter events as much as anyone can be on LI. 

We want the coastal low to develop as soon as possible and veer the wind to more ENE so the ocean influence is lessened. And for the snow to come in like a wall. Showery crap will allow the air to warm. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Where you are might be dicey especially if you're south of Sunrise Highway. That's like tier 1 of the area to get screwed. Tier 2 is there to the LIE, Tier 3 is north of the LIE and favored in winter events as much as anyone can be on LI. 

We want the coastal low to develop as soon as possible and veer the wind to more ENE so the ocean influence is lessened. And for the snow to come in like a wall. Showery crap will allow the air to warm. 

I’m north of sunrise just off southern state parkway 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Down to 34 in my backyard 

[Jaguars]

All about where the sleet line makes it to, as usual. The dual pol radar'll be our best friend or worst enemy tomorrow night. NAM is more aggressive with the mid level warmth as usual but it can sometimes overdo it. If the coastal low takes over fairly early it should help mute the northward warm push. If we have shredded up precip the warm mid level air will have an easier time getting a foothold. And I do buy the big difference between south and north shore snow/frozen amounts here. Hopefully everyone gets a decent event and for most it'll multiply our seasonal snow total by several times or more so there's that. 

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[Jaguars]

I think the precip shield staying tight will be key for the city and LI. If anyone besides the NAM was showing the warming / fragmented precip I’d be concerned about mixing up to the coast. But at this point I’d be surprised if anyone White Plains northward mixes.


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