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2/28/23 storm threat


Rjay
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5 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think some folks on LI who may be expecting 3-5" may get disappointed. It's just not cold enough and there's not enough vertical velocity with most of it being offshore or to our north and west. The s-se wind doesn't help either. This air can only cool so much and in order to pile up you need maximum intensity which I don't think is going to last long enough or steadily enough.

WX/PT

That heavier area of precip in W PA will I think make or break it here. If that can stay heavier and be in the form of snow we can make it to 4 or 5", if it's sleet or lightens up we get 2 or 3". And the barrier islands/south shore may not get cold enough to really accumulate at all. Whatever we end up getting, better late than never. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

That heavier area of precip in W PA will I think make or break it here. If that can stay heavier and be in the form of snow we can make it to 4 or 5", if it's sleet or lightens up we get 2 or 3". And the barrier islands/south shore may not get cold enough to really accumulate at all. Whatever we end up getting, better late than never. 

Gonna be big differences north shore vs south shore but that was always the case. North shore should get 3-5 inches easily especially if you are already 33. 

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1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Gonna be big differences north shore vs south shore but that was always the case. North shore should get 3-5 inches easily especially if you are already 33. 

Yeah. I’m in brightwaters and it’s 37 and raining. Over before it started for south shore 

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Was light snow here in Metuchen from 6-8 pm with little accumulation and temps in the 36-37F range, but in the last 20-30 minutes, snow rate has picked up (moderate snow now) and we've now doubled our seasonal snowfall of 1/4", as we have a 1/4" on the ground now lol.  Snow is accumulating on colder surfaces (not pavement yet, but soon, I think) with temps down to 35F.  Woohoo!  Would love to make my pre-storm prediction of 2.5" for my house (or more obviously).  

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1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Gonna be big differences north shore vs south shore but that was always the case. North shore should get 3-5 inches easily especially if you are already 33. 

The wild card for the south shore is the coastal low hopefully turning winds around to ENE which is a less warm direction (though still not great) and the warm air aloft and surface being stopped. Models other than the NAM don't really get enough warm air north of Sunrise Highway for sleet to be a big deal. 

Not sure about "easily" but I'll take whatever I can get in this worst winter ever (which if I get 4-5" won't be worst ever but still in the bottom 5 lol). 

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