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2/28/23 storm threat


Rjay
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Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

Honestly imo thats not great forecasting, focus on the models that you trust most, not every single model. 

It's probably some ensemble forecast. And no that's not great forecasting. I still remember the debacle that happened when Channel 4 showed 26" of snow from the NAM in Central Park right before Nemo 2/8/13. People freaked out for the 11" it ended up being-significant but not crippling. 

My guesses for totals:

Central Park 2.5"

JFK 1.5"

LGA: 3"

Long Beach: 1"

EWR: 3"

New Brunswick: 1.5"

Morristown: 5.5"

Middletown NY: 7"

Newburgh: 5.5"

Danbury: 6.5"

New Haven: 6"

Huntington (IMBY): 4"

Islip: 3.5"

RIverhead: 3"

Places I have 3-4" on LI and Newark etc might easily be only 2" or less if we see sleet crashing in, breaks in the precip etc. Tough call. 

 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Sleet line on dual-pol looks to be just S of Reading/Pottstown PA. Hopefully Allentown gets pounded pretty good, that's the test case for me for what NYC/most of LI can expect. 

Maybe but most of NYC/LI actually is a little higher latitude than Allentown and this event should be very latitude dependent. 

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27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Sleet line on dual-pol looks to be just S of Reading/Pottstown PA. Hopefully Allentown gets pounded pretty good, that's the test case for me for what NYC/most of LI can expect. 

I'm not so sure about that.  We're closer to the cold air source than ABE. It does seem like some sleet mix is inevitable at times, especially during lighter precip. Also, developing coastal may help more here than at ABE  Fingers crossed.

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