2/28/23 storm threat

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It could be 55 and it wouldn't matter. All comes down to wet bulb temps 

that will matter in term of surface temps though, snow will not stick to warm ground unless it comes down really hard

 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

that will matter in term of surface temps though, snow will not stick to warm ground unless it comes down really hard

 

If it’s moderate or better it will accumulate. Temps will wetbulb down and it will be dark. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, jm1220 said:

If it’s moderate or better it will accumulate. Temps will wetbulb down and it will be dark. 

I'm not at the beach obviously, but I'm 2 miles north of there.  Does it look good for here?

[mikem81]

I still think the metro best bet is this initial slug...

 

[NJwx85]

This was the 18z HRRR.

Falls in line with my thinking.

Cut off on under 6" amounts should be on a general line from Paterson to Paramus to White Plains. 3-5" still looks good for places just West of NYC and the North shore of LI. Lesser amounts for the South shore, Central NJ, Southern Westchester and areas North of the Bear Mount bridge in the Hudson Valley, except for the higher elevations in Ulster/Sullivan. South of the Sunrise Highway could see very little. 

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm not at the beach obviously, but I'm 2 miles north of there.  Does it look good for here?

Hopefully. Depends on how heavy the snow comes in and can stay, and how much the warm easterly winds warm up the surface. Usual caveats being on the south shore. If we see large breaks in the snow, that’s where the mid level warmth will also have an easier time getting in. 

[Tatamy]

I think the place to be for this event will in NY north of the Cuomo bridge and into CT.  I am looking at the 18z NAM and I think the amounts shown on the snowfall depth chart would be the ones to go with.  Anyone who is looking at 10:1 clown maps for snow fall amounts is going to be disappointed.  I just looked at a bunch of traffic cams out in western PA and every where I looked precip was not reaching the ground or was light rain (including elevated locations).  Wet bulbing will promote the changeover north of the city but elsewhere it will be mainly white rain (or a mix) and struggle to accumulate.

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I think the place to be for this event will in NY north of the Cuomo bridge and into CT.  I am looking at the 18z NAM and I think the amounts shown on the snowfall depth chart would be the ones to go with.  Anyone who is looking at 10:1 clown maps for snow fall amounts is going to be disappointed.  I just looked at a bunch of traffic cams out in western PA and every where I looked precip was not reaching the ground or was light rain (including elevated locations).  Wet bulbing will promote the changeover north of the city but elsewhere it will be mainly white rain and struggle to accumulate.

I have a different take. This storm is more favorable setup for this area than western PA. Plus daytime vs nighttime. This is not a white rain event unless precip is light. 

[Albedoman]

wow, a real winner coming tonight cannot wait.  When I wake up on Tuesday morning  I expect to be shoveling away these two inches of a whopping heavy wet snow sleet slush ball event. More like just pushing off the crap off the driveway.

 

However my true expectations when I wake up-- is what the hell happened to all the mixed crap that fell last night?-- its already gone.  This winter season, no snowfall on the ground  lasts more than 8 hours in the LV this year.  Might as well be spring as my crocuses and daffodils are in full bloom, my pussy willow tree has completely budded out and the tulips are coming up.

 

My synopsis of this HECS event outcome----Might as well put this winter back right back into the air fryer.  However, please just make sure it is not a Cosori air fryer- I do want to see another recall of this winter season. LMAO 

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I have a different take. This storm is more favorable setup for this area than western PA. Plus daytime vs nighttime. This is not a white rain event unless precip is light. 

Good luck!

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I think the place to be for this event will in NY north of the Cuomo bridge and into CT.  I am looking at the 18z NAM and I think the amounts shown on the snowfall depth chart would be the ones to go with.  Anyone who is looking at 10:1 clown maps for snow fall amounts is going to be disappointed.  I just looked at a bunch of traffic cams out in western PA and every where I looked precip was not reaching the ground or was light rain (including elevated locations).  Wet bulbing will promote the changeover north of the city but elsewhere it will be mainly white rain (or a mix) and struggle to accumulate.

Your area will be a good test case. If the ABE area goes to sleet fast or can't accumulate, NYC and LI won't either most likely. NAM is concerning but hopefully a bit too warm.

[Brasiluvsnow]

26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This was the 18z HRRR.

Falls in line with my thinking.

Cut off on under 6" amounts should be on a general line from Paterson to Paramus to White Plains. 3-5" still looks good for places just West of NYC and the North shore of LI. Lesser amounts for the South shore, Central NJ, Southern Westchester and areas North of the Bear Mount bridge in the Hudson Valley, except for the higher elevations in Ulster/Sullivan. South of the Sunrise Highway could see very little. 

When is the HRRR in its wheelhouse ( is it 12 or 18 hours prior to event ) are we within its comfort zone yet ? 

[Winterweatherlover]

13 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Good luck!

I mean I’ve seen this setup honestly go either way but right now lean it’ll be positive for NYC Metro. Good timing, good precip burst. Surface temps and mid level warming somewhat concerning but low dewpoints should wetbulb most to at least 33-34. 

 

If NAM depth chart is right would be a pretty major bust. 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

When is the HRRR in its wheelhouse ( is it 12 or 18 hours prior to event ) are we within its comfort zone yet ? 

It does not have a wheelhouse. Its generally too cold and snowy

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It does not have a wheelhouse. Its generally too cold and snowy

Did pretty well last winter close to events. Haven’t checked it this winter, no need to. 

[CIK62]

COBB SNOW METHOD TOTAL FOR  klga{GFS}  IS  0" AND MAYBE 0.5" FOR kewr(Not Shown)      I think this is what you will see on the ground when precipitation ends.        A wasted 0.75" to 1.00" liquid.

230227/2300Z  11  12012KT  38.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
230228/0000Z  12  13012KT  37.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01   45|  0| 55
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
230228/0100Z  13  12011KT  34.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.090    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10   67|  0| 33
230228/0200Z  14  11009KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.078    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17   73|  0| 27
230228/0300Z  15  11010KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28   67|  0| 33
230228/0400Z  16  10013KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.121    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40   79|  0| 21
230228/0500Z  17  10014KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.46   79|  0| 21
230228/0600Z  18  10013KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.57   82|  0| 18
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
230228/0700Z  19  09011KT  33.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69   64|  0| 36
230228/0800Z  20  08013KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75   62|  0| 38
230228/0900Z  21  08012KT  33.2F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81    0|  0|100
230228/1000Z  22  07012KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.85   60|  0| 40
230228/1100Z  23  07012KT  33.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.86    0|  0|100
230228/1200Z  24  07011KT  33.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.86    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
230228/1300Z  25  07009KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.86    0|  0|100
230228/1400Z  26  06008KT  33.7F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.87    0|  0|100
230228/1500Z  27  07008KT  33.9F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.88    0|  0|100
230228/1600Z  28  06007KT  34.2F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.89    0|  0|100
230228/1700Z  29  04006KT  34.6F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.90    0|  0|100
230228/1800Z  30  02005KT  34.6F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.90    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
230228/1900Z  31  36005KT  34.2F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91    0|  0|100
230228/2000Z  32  34005KT  33.7F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.92    0|  0|100
230228/2100Z  33  33004KT  33.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.92    0| 

[EastonSN+]

[winterwx21]

18z RGEM very nice. Big hit for northern NJ.

[the_other_guy]

since you were predicting school closures: Hastings is already on a 2 hour delay.

I think many of you making the predictions don’t have kids and were using 20 years ago as your guide hahaha

 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

18z RGEM very nice. Huge hit for northern NJ.

Wetter but seems like a sharp cutoff for some of the borderline areas.  

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Wetter but seems like a sharp cutoff for some of the borderline areas.  

Yeah but much further south than the other models. Like coastal Monmouth which is expecting nothing anyway

[MANDA]

Latest WPC Heavy Snow and Icing discussion.

I am thinking along the lines of 4" to MAYBE as much as 6" for my location if we can get into most favorable lift after mid-night and before dawn.  That will be a now casting situation.  Meanwhile expect to see the first flakes between 6pm - 7pm.  Air mass is dry so will take a bit for initial radar echos to reach the ground.

[mikem81]

40/20 split here in western Nassau. right between north and south shore. Could see 2 or 6. Keeping an eye on temps between now and 7pm. Would like to see it down to 36 or so before precip..

[binbisso]

Looks like precip will get here quicker than guidance 

[vegan_edible]

when do you think snow will be expected to start falling in the white plains area? radar says 7 but that seems quick

[allgame830]

38/20 here…. So a wet bulb of 29? 

[lee59]

39 degrees here, wind ESE about 10mph.

[Snowlover11]

9 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Looks like precip will get here quicker than guidance 

always does but expect some dry air at first.

[Snowlover11]

9 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

when do you think snow will be expected to start falling in the white plains area? radar says 7 but that seems quick

7-8pm

[mikem81]

Almost all models converging on heaviest axis of precip going right through the NYC metro area and areas just to the west with highest precip amounts