donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Most of NNJ and the Hudson valley will be closed. NW NJ and areas north of White Plains—maybe even White Plains—will likely be closed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: NW NJ and areas north of White Plains—maybe even White Plains—will likely be closed. I can see Westchester schools closing or at least delayed even south of White Plains if some of the short range models are right. 7 am may be very rough travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 25 minutes ago, Jaguars said: Weird looking presentation on radar, looks like it has tentacles. . 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: NW NJ and areas north of White Plains—maybe even White Plains—will likely be closed. Most of Rockland will be closed and places like Ramsey and Mahwah will be closed as well. That are is part of NE NJ. The cutoff is around Paramus on Rt 17 in these events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Best Guess ISP 1.5 inches JFK 1.5 inches LGA 2.5 inches EWR 3.5 inches CPK 3 inches HPN 6 inches SWF 7 inches 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Best Guess ISP 1.5 inches JFK 1.5 inches LGA 2.5 inches EWR 3.5 inches CPK 3 inches HPN 6 inches SWF 7 inches This actually looks on target Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Most of Rockland will be closed and places like Ramsey and Mahwah will be closed as well. That are is part of NE NJ. The cutoff is around Paramus on Rt 17 in these events. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 I don't have kids in school here in Vernon anymore, so I don't get text alerts. But I would bet they have probably cancelled already. Especially since they have the snow days to burn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 HRRR starts as rain, given current temps seems realistic. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023022718&fh=7&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Dewpoints though suggest fast wet bulbing https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2023022718&fh=7&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: HRRR starts as rain, given current temps seems realistic. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023022718&fh=7&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Dewpoints though suggest fast wet bulbing https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2023022718&fh=7&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Clouds finally rolling in after hitting 45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Seems like this will all come down to banding. One band from the initial WAA around 7-10pm and another potential band from the coastal forming around midnight to 5am. I would not worry about current temps. Focus on dew points... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: HRRR starts as rain, given current temps seems realistic. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023022718&fh=7&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Dewpoints though suggest fast wet bulbing https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2023022718&fh=7&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= We should start dropping off soon with the sun going down and with any kind of decent precip rate we’ll wetbulb down. Real question is if coastal areas can get down to near freezing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: Seems like this will all come down to banding. One band from the initial WAA around 7-10pm and another potential band from the coastal forming around midnight to 5am. I would not worry about current temps. Focus on dew points... I noticed that too on the HRRR seems to be a bit of a lull around 11 pm and I can already imagine everyone on here freaking out at that time and then steady snow from 12-5 am (seems to stay snow longer than some of the other models). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023022718&fh=19&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Cold and Juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Best Guess ISP 1.5 inches JFK 1.5 inches LGA 2.5 inches EWR 3.5 inches CPK 3 inches HPN 6 inches SWF 7 inches MMU? (Obligatory How Much For Philly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Clouds finally rolling in after hitting 45 It's 48 here right now. Warmer than forecast as usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 42 here with dim sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 HRRR still looks good away from the immediate beaches. Hopefully by now that’s meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We should start dropping off soon with the sun going down and with any kind of decent precip rate we’ll wetbulb down. Real question is if coastal areas can get down to near freezing too. Not sure if it has to get to freezing, 33 and heavy snow will accumulate fine at night. Obviously 31-32 would make a big difference especially if not that heavy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Radar looks much better than what the HRRR currently depicts near SE Penn https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0Q-1-24-100-usa-rad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sterno2510 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Small changes in New Brunswick - with dew point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: HRRR still looks good away from the immediate beaches. Hopefully by now that’s meaningful. I mean it definitely could be worse, i've seen more borderline forecasts. This is pretty clearly mostly snow event for most of the metro north of a line from New Brunswick to the immediate LI beaches. How much it accumulates, how heavy it is, and I guess how soon does the sleet mix in are the main questions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 20 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Seems like this will all come down to banding. One band from the initial WAA around 7-10pm and another potential band from the coastal forming around midnight to 5am. I would not worry about current temps. Focus on dew points... Please no banding comments. Every storm, someone says it will come down to banding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 21 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It's 48 here right now. Warmer than forecast as usual. It could be 55 and it wouldn't matter. All comes down to wet bulb temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: It could be 55 and it wouldn't matter. All comes down to wet bulb temps No question about that. We have the low dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said: I can see Westchester schools closing or at least delayed even south of White Plains if some of the short range models are right. 7 am may be very rough travel. Could happen, especially if the changeover doesn't occur near midnight or the snow is on the heavier side of the guidance (e.g., 12z GFS amounts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Please no banding comments. Every storm, someone says it will come down to banding. I’m good with “ no banding “ comments or “ Kuchera “ maps but wet bulb temps are a must any other rules before we get started ? Current New City Temp 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Please no banding comments. Every storm, someone says it will come down to banding.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Dewpoint dropping. 41/18 here, wetbulb is 29.8. Wetbulbs are below freezing all the way to the beaches on the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 36 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I mean it definitely could be worse, i've seen more borderline forecasts. This is pretty clearly mostly snow event for most of the metro north of a line from New Brunswick to the immediate LI beaches. How much it accumulates, how heavy it is, and I guess how soon does the sleet mix in are the main questions. well I'm 2 miles north of the beach so I'm safe lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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