jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: RGEM Temps 7 pm https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022715&fh=9&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 10 pm https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=15&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 1 am https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= It’s maybe a little better for the immediate coast since winds veer more easterly then ENE into the event but if the snow breaks up, could be dealing with 35-36 and trying to restart the snow/accumulate which will be very hard. Eventually warm mid level air probably will make it in which means it goes to sleet or more likely rain. That’s why these maps showing the N to S shore accumulation contrast make sense. On the N shore and just inland temps are near freezing or a little above which makes accumulating a lot easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, nycwinter said: a new mayor can change the rules you're not kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It’s maybe a little better for the immediate coast since winds veer more easterly then ENE into the event but if the snow breaks up, could be dealing with 35-36 and trying to restart the snow/accumulate which will be very hard. Eventually warm mid level air probably will make it in which means it goes to sleet or more likely rain. That’s why these maps showing the N to S shore accumulation contrast make sense. On the N shore and just inland temps are near freezing or a little above which makes accumulating a lot easier. I specifically posted RGEM because it has slight warm bias but usually pretty good with temps. Factoring in wet bulb my guess would be 32-33 North Shore/Northern NYC and 33-35 South Shore/Southern NYC during height of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: I specifically posted RGEM because it has slight warm bias but usually pretty good with temps. Factoring in wet bulb my guess would be 32-33 North Shore/Northern NYC and 33-35 South Shore/Southern NYC during height of precip. Look at dew points.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Look at dew points.... Dewpoints 7 pm https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=12&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 10 pm https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=15&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 1 am https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 clouds starting to roll in so hopefully temps have reached peaks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 38/20 with a wetbulb of 29 in Suffolk. Expecting 3” of slop 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 32 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It’s maybe a little better for the immediate coast since winds veer more easterly then ENE into the event but if the snow breaks up, could be dealing with 35-36 and trying to restart the snow/accumulate which will be very hard. Eventually warm mid level air probably will make it in which means it goes to sleet or more likely rain. That’s why these maps showing the N to S shore accumulation contrast make sense. On the N shore and just inland temps are near freezing or a little above which makes accumulating a lot easier. wouldn't ENE be better than easterly? NE wind would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 26 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Look at dew points.... lower than 37 its snow, 36 and lower it can snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 HREF essentially a carbon copy from 0z-4-6” for most of the city and LI, 2-4” extreme S shore, 6”+ for most north of the city. A little surprised. Hope it’s right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 15 minutes ago, psv88 said: 38/20 with a wetbulb of 29 in Suffolk. Expecting 3” of slop Probably none on the driveway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Would not know a storm was coming by the weather right now in Soho. Chilly but brilliant sun. One of the nicest days in a while honestly.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 15 minutes ago, jm1220 said: HREF essentially a carbon copy from 0z-4-6” for most of the city and LI, 2-4” extreme S shore, 6”+ for most north of the city. A little surprised. Hope it’s right. Hope it’s right. Would be amazing to get 6 inches here, might even last until Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 17 minutes ago, jm1220 said: HREF essentially a carbon copy from 0z-4-6” for most of the city and LI, 2-4” extreme S shore, 6”+ for most north of the city. A little surprised. Hope it’s right. Honestly - I would not be surprised if WSW are pushed further south this evening or overnight (as the storm begins). There is a significant amount of energy with this system and High Res models continue to show rather strong h7 dynamics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: i always assume 10:1 and adjust based on temp profiles and where the lift is I started paying attention the Total Positive Snow Depth Change maps, you have any thoughts on those besides snow maps suck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Honestly - I would not be surprised if WSW are pushed further south this evening or overnight (as the storm begins). There is a significant amount of energy with this system and High Res models continue to show rather strong h7 dynamics. Starting to get November 2018 vibes a little with amounts increasing more and more as event approaches but also vary this could still bust low too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Honestly - I would not be surprised if WSW are pushed further south this evening or overnight (as the storm begins). There is a significant amount of energy with this system and High Res models continue to show rather strong h7 dynamics. So far I’m glad the 12z models got a little more encouraging but it’s a nowcast situation with this IMO. Hopefully we don’t see the sleet line racing north tonight. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, David-LI said: New York schools closing tomorrow? Any chance of that? 8 inches of snow forecasted is generally when they start calling school in the City. Not happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Euro got warmer but is still printing out alot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Euro got warmer but is still printing out alot of snow Yes more mixing but actually increased snow totals for most areas compared to 0Z https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro got warmer but is still printing out alot of snow Nice thump of snow on the Euro. Everything appears to be on track for tonight, but we'll be nowcasting as jm1220 said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Nice thump of snow on the Euro. Everything appears to be on track for tonight, but we'll be nowcasting as jm1220 said. Nothing much has really changed except maybe higher confidence in >2 inches of snow from CPK northward due to increased moisture. The borderline areas are still borderline but I think the more thumpy it comes in the more it will benefit everybody . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Yes more mixing but actually increased snow totals for most areas compared to 0Z https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Euro once again too cold in a SWFE 2 days out but hopefully the front end thump idea happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Currently 44 and sunny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 May not start until around 9 pm looking at some of the more recent models which would help in terms of cooling after sundown before moisture arrives. This seems to be one of those events where everything is sort of aligning in the right way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 No real change on Euro for most, just model noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Weird looking presentation on radar, looks like it has tentacles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Euro once again too cold in a SWFE 2 days out but hopefully the front end thump idea happens. Probably a burst of heavy snow 9 pm-1 am or so, then on and off sleet when light vs snow when heavier until morning north shore/Northern NYC and on and off sleet and light rain south shore/southern NYC. Probably everyone in the metro flips to light rain/drizzle tomorrow morning before ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 27 minutes ago, mannynyc said: 8 inches of snow forecasted is generally when they start calling school in the City. Not happening here. Yup, and you'd need that amount on pavement not grassy surfaces. Just about 0% chance unless it suddenly gets 5 degrees colder. Since it's remote learning they may lower the bar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: Maybe some closings in the Bronx? Roads could be very nasty at 7 am. Perhaps. Doubtful in Manhattan, Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now