Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: wow gfs Epic run just NW of the city. Very likely overdone. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=39&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Strong warm air advection arrives between 03-06z with high pressure moving over extreme NNE. The high is leaving, but the timing is near perfect for overrunning. Temperatures hang around the freezing mark for the I-80 corridor and then crash after 12z into the mid 20's. If the GFS profiles end up correct then those widespread 6"+ amounts are certainly possible. Heaviest snow looks to fall between 6z and 12z, then gradually taper after that. We will all benefit from this mostly falling at night and coming in rather intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, David-LI said: New York schools closing tomorrow? Any chance of that? Very unlikely for NYC. Perhaps in some of the suburbs there will be delayed openings and maybe some closures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, David-LI said: New York schools closing tomorrow? Any chance of that? Surprised anyone is asking this after the long track record of never closing NYC public schools. In any event, they will never close schools in the city for an advisory level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, donsutherland1 said: Very unlikely for NYC. Perhaps in some of the suburbs there will be delayed openings and maybe some closures. Maybe some closings in the Bronx? Roads could be very nasty at 7 am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, donsutherland1 said: Very unlikely for NYC. Perhaps in some of the suburbs there will be delayed openings and maybe some closures. Most of NNJ and the Hudson valley will be closed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Epic run just NW of the city. Very likely overdone. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=39&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 8 to 10 is probably the ceiling if it stays all snow. I think someone see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Probably not important at this range but CMC is terrible for the city. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Probably not important at this range but CMC is terrible for the city. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Yeah there isn't much use looking at the CMC at this range since we have the RGEM. It was great to see the RGEM a little wetter and colder on the 12z run. It gets 3 to 4 inches down to my area and for NYC, which I think is a very good sign for this event. Everything seems on track for an advisory level event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Surprised anyone is asking this after the long track record of never closing NYC public schools. In any event, they will never close schools in the city for an advisory level event. the city no longer has snow days this school season.. in the event a school is closed due to snow remote learning kicks in.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Hopefully this works out and portends a shift in our fortunes for March. No guarantees, but having some level of potential again is refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, nycwinter said: the city no longer has snow days this school season.. in the event a school is closed due to snow remote learning kicks in.. Yep, was about to respond mentioning this. My kid was quite upset when she found out about this last year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: BEST VIEWING TIME for NYC (snow falling and accumulating) ............ For NYC this looks like a self-cleaning storm and nothing will be left. Say 10pm-5am Tuesday night. Really. The Freezing Level barely goes below 300' and quickly scoots up to 1,000'+ Tuesday. Seems a shame that an event like this, that will likely be all melted by storm's end, will end our bid for the least snowiest winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, nycwinter said: the city no longer has snow days this school season.. in the event a school is closed due to snow remote learning kicks in.. It’s not just this school season, it’s all going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Anyone have a start time looks to me as if it might start earlier than 7pm and possibly rush hour,,, thoughts ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Anyone have a start time looks to me as if it might start earlier than 7pm and possibly rush hour,,, thoughts ? Hrrr Says between 7 and 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 what do i have to do to get people to stop looking at kuchera maps? 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 11 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Seems a shame that an event like this, that will likely be all melted by storm's end, will end our bid for the least snowiest winter... Its kind of both a pro and a con that it's happening at night. Night time should definitely help with accumulation at this time of the year but also most of us will miss out on seeing it snow and it'll be mostly gone by tomorrow afternoon (maybe tomorrow morning along the immediate coast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, forkyfork said: what do i have to do to get people to stop looking at kuchera maps? What's the rationale, why are they not a good tool to look at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: what do i have to do to get people to stop looking at kuchera maps? 10 to 1 is better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, forkyfork said: what do i have to do to get people to stop looking at kuchera maps? Have you tried saying "please " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: 10 to 1 is better? duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 i always assume 10:1 and adjust based on temp profiles and where the lift is 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, allgame830 said: It’s not just this school season, it’s all going forward. a new mayor can change the rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: What's the rationale, why are they not a good tool to look at? 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: 10 to 1 is better? Yeah we know ratios are gonna be worse than 10:1 for this event, so the Kuchera maps (which take ratios into account) that are showing less snow make sense. 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 10 to 1 is better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, winterwx21 said: Yeah we know ratios are gonna be worse than 10:1 for this event, so the Kuchera maps (which take ratios into account) that are showing less snow make sense. I thought they also take sleet into account Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Fwiw the ukie came back on board 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 they are WORTHLESS. thanks for coming to my ted talk 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 RGEM Temps 7 pm https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022715&fh=9&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 10 pm https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=15&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 1 am https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now