2/28/23 storm threat

[SnoSki14]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:42 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Not sure why I'm looking at the ukie but it cut way back. Basically nothing for nyc, south shore and ne nj

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Yeah looking like a non event now south of 78. Oh well at least it's almost spring 

[jm1220]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:42 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Nor sure why I'm looking at the ukie but it cut way back. Basically nothing for nyc, south shore and ne nj

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I'm not too concerned about it at this stage and it also cut back on precip in general which probably made it a warmer outcome. 

If the Euro cuts back a significant amount I'll be concerned but the other models seem to be holding steady. If this bumps back north at the end, no one should be surprised because almost every SWFE does that and it'll mean a lot for many of us since most of this subforum has no margin for error. I'm hopeful for a good event here but am totally prepared if at the last second it fails like the others. Just add that to the kicks to the teeth from this "winter". 

[psv88]

Welp, I’m sorry I put together the snowblower. My bad 

[Winterweatherlover]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:45 AM, Stormlover74 said:

And it was the first to show snow lol

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It's a terrible model lately, similar to NAM it shows very different things run to run. However I believe the HRRR, GFS, and Euro are currently the only models that look decent for NYC/Coast.   

 

I looked again and RGEM is ok too. 

 

I'm defining decent as 2+ inches.   

 

[Stormlover74]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:50 AM, Winterweatherlover said:

It's a terrible model lately, similar to NAM it shows very different things run to run. However I believe the HRRR, GFS, and Euro are currently the only models that look decent for NYC/Coast.   

 

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Canadians are still decent they just cut back

Also have the href

[Winterweatherlover]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:51 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Canadians are still decent they just cut back

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The HRRR usually did pretty well with winter storms last year inside of 18 hours so that's probably the model I'd go with once we hit tomorrow and of course paying attention to the most important stuff like temperature, dewpoint, and radar.

[winterwx21]

UKMET is a crazy model that I don't put much stock in, but NAM and RGEM are dangerously close to giving us almost nothing here. Definitely nervous being so close to the edge. Could get 4 inches or just a slushy coating. I'm anxiously waiting for the Euro, hoping it holds its colder solution to give me more confidence that there's a decent chance that we'll get a few inches here. 

[jm1220]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:55 AM, Winterweatherlover said:

The HRRR usually did pretty well with winter storms last year inside of 18 hours so that's probably the model I'd go with once we hit tomorrow and of course paying attention to the most important stuff like temperature, dewpoint, and radar.

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We're close to nowcast time but I'd say we have until 12z tomorrow before we can breathe the "last second SWFE north bump isn't happening" sigh of relief. We're not at the range where HRRR and RAP are particularly useful. Hopefully the NAM is just a touch too warm at the mid levels, but it will almost certainly be more correct than other models. As far as I saw the other models basically held serve so far.

[brooklynwx99]

the UKMET is awful with thermals. I wouldn't pay too much attention to its accumulation forecasts in marginal situations. I'd expect 1 - 3" in the city

[HeadInTheClouds]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:44 AM, Winterweatherlover said:

Pretty awful honestly, it's not a good model but it is a bit concerning multiple models are cutting back this close to the event. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

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The Ukie is another joke of a model. 

[Stormlover74]

  On 2/27/2023 at 5:02 AM, jm1220 said:

We're close to nowcast time but I'd say we have until 12z tomorrow before we can breathe the "last second SWFE north bump isn't happening" sigh of relief. We're not at the range where HRRR and RAP are particularly useful. Hopefully the NAM is just a touch too warm at the mid levels, but it will almost certainly be more correct than other models. As far as I saw the other models basically held serve so far.

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Euro looks good

[RU848789]

The night before the snowfall that could provide ten times as much snow vs. what we've had this entire winter through almost the end of February and there's nobody posting on the Euro.  Might have to give you folks a timeout, lol.  Anyway, not going to do analysis, other than to say the output is very similar to 18Z, which is good, as other models have pulled back a bit on snowfall vs. 18Z (not hugely, but moreso on the southern fringes, i.e., where I live).  

 

[winterwx21]

  On 2/27/2023 at 6:02 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Euro looks good

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Yeah it was good to see it hold. I'll stick with a 2 to 3 inch prediction for our area. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

  On 2/27/2023 at 6:10 AM, RU848789 said:

The night before the snowfall that could provide ten times as much snow vs. what we've had this entire winter through almost the end of February and there's nobody posting on the Euro.  Might have to give you folks a timeout, lol.  Anyway, not going to do analysis, other than to say the output is very similar to 18Z, which is good, as other models have pulled back a bit on snowfall vs. 18Z (not hugely, but moreso on the southern fringes, i.e., where I live).  

 

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You speak the truth but in all fairness I think that people are so beaten down by this winter that they wont believe anything (even if the morning models hold serve) until they see it outside their windows 

[KeithB]

  On 2/27/2023 at 6:16 AM, Brasiluvsnow said:

You speak the truth but in all fairness I think that people are so beaten down by this winter that they wont believe anything (even if the morning models hold serve) until they see it outside their windows 

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And even when the snow is on the ground they still might not believe it. It'll feel like a dream the way this winter is going. 

[SRRTA22]

@MJO812cheers to the first snowfall  

 

[MJO812]

  On 2/27/2023 at 8:27 AM, SRRTA22 said:

@MJO812cheers to the first snowfall 

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I will take pics 

[psv88]

WWA for northern LI

[Snowlover11]

WSW for 5-8”

[Bxstormwatcher360]

6z nam and gfs looks pretty gd for my neck of the woods. We stay below freezing here in the bx and it looks mostly if not all frozen..2-4 is my call but i wont be surprized to see 5 in some spots esp near the northern bx/westchester county border..

[jaquanweb]

looks like they upped the totals a bit

[weatherpruf]

Really effin close too. I was just in New Haven yesterday. They're looking at 6-8. It's barely 2 hours north. Heck Morristown is looking at 4-6. What a slap in the face. Always too far south or too far north.

[weatherpruf]

  On 2/27/2023 at 8:30 AM, MJO812 said:

I will take pics 

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What are you expecting there old friend? We're looking at maybe 1-2 here if that. Really borderline for this event.

[North and West]

  On 2/27/2023 at 4:50 AM, Winterweatherlover said:

It's a terrible model lately, similar to NAM it shows very different things run to run. However I believe the HRRR, GFS, and Euro are currently the only models that look decent for NYC/Coast.   
 
I looked again and RGEM is ok too. 
 
I'm defining decent as 2+ inches.   
 

.

[MJO812]

  On 2/27/2023 at 11:08 AM, weatherpruf said:

What are you expecting there old friend? We're looking at maybe 1-2 here if that. Really borderline for this event.

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Upton has 2-4 for us but I think 1-3.

[North and West]

  On 2/27/2023 at 11:06 AM, weatherpruf said:

Really effin close too. I was just in New Haven yesterday. They're looking at 6-8. It's barely 2 hours north. Heck Morristown is looking at 4-6. What a slap in the face. Always too far south or too far north.

Morristown?



.

[Rtd208]

  On 2/27/2023 at 11:13 AM, MJO812 said:

He should just enjoy this event since we haven't seen any snow this year.

Seeing snow fall is like seeing the Mets win a playoff game.

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There is definitely bust potential on both the upside and downside especially for those who are closer to the southern edge of the snow line IMO. Nowcasting will be important as we approach evening.

[North and West]

  On 2/27/2023 at 11:13 AM, MJO812 said:

He should just enjoy this event since we haven't seen any snow this year.
Seeing snow fall is like seeing the Mets win a playoff game.

too soon, re: Mets.


.

[MJO812]

  On 2/27/2023 at 11:14 AM, Rtd208 said:

There is definitely bust potential on both the upside and downside especially for those who are closer to the southern edge of the snow line IMO. Nowcasting will be important as we approach evening.

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Maybe a Nov 2018 redux?

[Rtd208]

  On 2/27/2023 at 11:19 AM, MJO812 said:

Maybe a Nov 2018 redux?

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I am going to go out on a limb here but I think places closer to the southern edge are going to do better then currently forecast. I am sticking with 2-4" for my area in Middlesex County primarily north of the Driscoll Bridge. We don't even have a WWA here yet meanwhile Somerset Co. to my west does, Union Co. to my north does and Staten Island to my east does. Makes no sense IMO.