sterno2510 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Why is islip 10-12 degrees colder than nyc right now Moisture starved cold front coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 A few inches would be amazing if it happens. It would feel like a hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Another possible outcome...hopefully not realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: A few inches would be amazing if it happens. It would feel like a hecs. A few inches would feel like a clipper. A hecs would be like what we had last january 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 28 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam is still quite warm. More over the city than west milford Nam is garbage. It had widespread 1-2" totals for Saturday. I saw flurries. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Nam is garbage. It had widespread 1-2" totals for Saturday. I saw flurries. Sure discount it then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: A few inches would be amazing if it happens. It would feel like a hecs. It's probably our only chance at anything. Models aren't enthusiastic about the 3/4 system. So yeah give me a couple inches and then this pathetic winter can shove it 3 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 I was looking at some of the soundings for the Mon night/Tues AM storm. I am not impressed with the amount of cold air that they are showing. Some even show a nose of warm air at the mid levels, which could lead to lower snow fall totals, as the precip melts when it goes thru it. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 NAM warm RGEM dry HRRR lovely guess we’ll be nowcasting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Sure discount it then RGEM just came in warmer for our area unfortunately. Hopefully HRRR will be correct with the colder solution, but this is an extremely close call obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: RGEM just came in warmer for our area unfortunately. Hopefully HRRR will be correct with the colder solution, but this is an extremely close call obviously. Unfortunately drier and warmer will probably go together in this case. The RGEM I see is dry and now reintroduces sleet into the metro area. My guess is the warmer models are not giving the metro area great banding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: RGEM just came in warmer for our area unfortunately. Hopefully HRRR will be correct with the colder solution, but this is an extremely close call obviously. It's always a close call here near the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just an observation I see a lot of posts recently that don’t include model imaging which does not help…. Comments with maps would be greatly appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's always a close call here near the coast You're right about that Ant. Let's hope for an HRRR victory for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Just an observation I see a lot of posts recently that don’t include model imaging which does not help…. Comments with maps would be greatly appreciated I used to post maps but then I run out of space Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I used to post maps but then I run out of space Ok no biggie but I know you didn’t post it but just saying RGEM is dry which it has been the drier of the all the models is not a helpful comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Ok no biggie but I know you didn’t post it but just saying RGEM is dry which it has been the drier of the all the models is not a helpful comment. Ok fair point https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022700&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=qpf_acc-imp&m=rdps https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022700&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=rdps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 The RGEM didn't look much different to me at all, minor differences that amount to noise. If we get shredded up precip, it's more likely there will be sleet or rain mixing in. The S shore and NJ south of I-78 were always going to be the toughest spots in this storm. No one should be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The RGEM didn't look much different to me at all, minor differences that amount to noise. If we get shredded up precip, it's more likely there will be sleet or rain mixing in. The S shore and NJ south of I-78 were always going to be the toughest spots in this storm. No one should be surprised. True it looks about the same as all along, I guess I was hoping it would trend a little wetter like the other models, it does also reintroduce sleet into parts of the city this run. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 GFS impressive NW of the city, tight gradient in the city. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022700&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Ok fair point https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022700&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=qpf_acc-imp&m=rdps https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022700&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=rdps Thank you appreciate that. Not surprising to see the rgem and NAM close with their depictions. We will see what happens but as @jm1220 said 78 south and close the coast seems to be where issues are at it’s greatest. My location be just fine even if the warmer/drier models verify but I’d like to see everyone get at least a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The RGEM didn't look much different to me at all, minor differences that amount to noise. If we get shredded up precip, it's more likely there will be sleet or rain mixing in. The S shore and NJ south of I-78 were always going to be the toughest spots in this storm. No one should be surprised. RGEM did get warmer for north-central NJ. It more than cut the snow amounts in half for Middlesex county (my area). It looks like the NAM now with my area being close to the edge of getting almost nothing. I know other models like HRRR and Euro look much better. Very tough call. I could get 4 inches or less than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 CMC looks warmer https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 I can see why upton went conservative, the trends are not great for the city and coast although some models are still cold so going to be nowcasting situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: CMC looks warmer https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Part of it's because there's less precip so less snow accumulating. Part of the nowcasting will be to see how the snow comes in. Less precip means the warm air has an easier time advancing. Also it might mean the coastal low gets going later which means the mid level warm air isn't shunted away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 The 0z HREF: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Not sure why I'm looking at the ukie but it cut way back. Basically nothing for nyc, south shore and ne nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nor sure why I'm looking at the ukie but it cut way back. Basically nothing for nyc, south shore and ne nj Pretty awful honestly, it's not a good model but it is a bit concerning multiple models are cutting back this close to the event. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Pretty awful honestly https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023022700&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= And it was the first to show snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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