nycemt123 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 So now I don't know what to do... I'm supposed to work Monday. I'm going to be driving from Rockland county to north jersey, from there to queens, Brooklyn & Linden NJ then back up to Rockland County.My car does not have 4wheel drive. Am I in for hell of a day tomorrow? Please advise Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, nycemt123 said: So now I don't know what to do... I'm supposed to work Monday. I'm going to be driving from Rockland county to north jersey, from there to queens, Brooklyn & Linden NJ then back up to Rockland County. My car does not have 4wheel drive. Am I in for hell of a day tomorrow? Please advise Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk It’s not supposed to start until late afternoon so not sure what time you would be back up in Rockland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, nycemt123 said: So now I don't know what to do... I'm supposed to work Monday. I'm going to be driving from Rockland county to north jersey, from there to queens, Brooklyn & Linden NJ then back up to Rockland County. My car does not have 4wheel drive. Am I in for hell of a day tomorrow? Please advise Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk It doesn't start til after 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Gfs pretty impressive for NYC and points north and west. I’m still kind of confused by why different models are showing such different qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 GFS 12z looks pretty good to me at least I-78 on north. RGEM didn't really change as others said. So as far as I can see we're still on track around NYC. We definitely do still have to be careful though and not lock anything in since there's still time for a 50 or so mile N bump that would make it a lousy rain/sleet event south of the Hudson Valley/CT. There really isn't much room for error for most of the subforum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Gfs pretty impressive for NYC and points north and west. I’m still kind of confused by why different models are showing such different qpf. How much QPF…. Map please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Gfs pretty impressive for NYC and points north and west. I’m still kind of confused by why different models are showing such different qpf. Anything with WAA/overrunning mechanisms models will be all over the place...there will probably be a location somewhere that gets absolutely dumped on with a mesoscale band and if you look at the models its likely to be right at the beginning in the first 3 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 It doesn't start til after 7Ok that should be fine then. Thanks!Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: How much QPF…. Map please Unfortunately I can’t post a map right now maybe someone else can but I think you’re in central Westchester where kuchera map is 7-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Gfs colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 It’s not supposed to start until late afternoon so not sure what time you would be back up in Rockland. I'll probably be back in Rockland by 4ish. I think I'll be ok I'm just getting nervous because I drove in the 2018 week-before-thanksgiving fiasco. Took 7.5 hours from Montefiore hospital to home in Monsey/Ramapo/Spring Valley. That was traumatic lolSent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Nice gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: Gfs colder Likely overdone but verbatim warning level snow event from northern NYC on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, allgame830 said: How much QPF…. Map please Most seems in the .5 to .75 range. Nice thump where it's all snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Too low near the coast imo but can also understand why upton is being conservative and not model hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 15z RAP looks very nice but is probably too cold. Has 5" all the way down to PHL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Big don has spoken and their should be no more doubt…nyc gets over a inch 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 12z Cmc is 1-3 for the city and coast, looks like lighter precip and some mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 44 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I'm definitely hoping it's wrong. It could also swing back colder at 18z Even though NAM is a horrible model, it's understandable that its warm solution is causing us to be a little skeptical after everything we've been through this winter. Our luck has been so bad that it wouldn't be shocking if NAM ends up being right for a change for this one. That said, I think it's definitely more likely that we'll get an advisory level event from this. Too many other models are on board. RGEM looks pretty good (2 to 3 inches for our area). Euro and HRRR are nice and cold. I'd go with 2 to 4 for our area right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: THANKS!! Bridgeport is pathetic. I really wish they'd start measuring snow at New Haven again, I think it would be useful for both the north shore of Suffolk County and for eastern CT. Because we all know Groton is a snowhole too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Even though NAM is a horrible model, it's understandable that its warm solution is causing us to be a little skeptical after everything we've been through this winter. Our luck has been so bad that it wouldn't be shocking if NAM ends up being right for a change for this one. That said, I think it's definitely more likely that we'll get an advisory level event from this. Too many other models are on board. RGEM looks pretty good (2 to 3 inches for our area). Euro and HRRR are nice and cold. I'd go with 2 to 4 for our area right now. We'll see. NWS isn't biting yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: We'll see. NWS isn't biting yet Yea looking at their map I don’t even think anywhere in the city or north shore LI is getting an advisory yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Ukie held serve but trended a bit drier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, hooralph said: Central Park is masterpiece of urban planning. Olmstead is a hero to me. If you go there on a summer day "elitist" is the last thing that will come to mind. It still meets the aim he had in creating urban parks - to create egalitarian spaces open to everyone. Go up to Great Hill on a summer day when you'll see big families having BBQ's and grad students wine picnics on the lawn and families having birthday parties. The CPK reporting station is as far from pavement as you can get in Manhattan and probably as representative of the median conditions across the 5 boroughs as you can get. And in the winter. it's bad for measuring temperatures in the summer though as it doesn't meet the required distance to be away from foliage and especially trees and it's also really bad with measuring winds. I agree with the other things you said, it's a very pretty park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Even though NAM is a horrible model, it's understandable that its warm solution is causing us to be a little skeptical after everything we've been through this winter. Our luck has been so bad that it wouldn't be shocking if NAM ends up being right for a change for this one. That said, I think it's definitely more likely that we'll get an advisory level event from this. Too many other models are on board. RGEM looks pretty good (2 to 3 inches for our area). Euro and HRRR are nice and cold. I'd go with 2 to 4 for our area right now. The HRRR always misses mid level warmth beyond 12-18 or so. My concern here is the ESE flow, the fact the event comes in at 6pm vs 6am so you get all that solar heating through the clouds. You may be 42/22 at JFK when this begins easily and start as RASN before wet bulbing and going all snow. I think we need a really good shot at moderate snow in the first 2-3 hours otherwise it'll end up with 1-2 at best near the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The HRRR always misses mid level warmth beyond 12-18 or so. My concern here is the ESE flow, the fact the event comes in at 6pm vs 6am so you get all that solar heating through the clouds. You may be 42/22 at JFK when this begins easily and start as RASN before wet bulbing and going all snow. I think we need a really good shot at moderate snow in the first 2-3 hours otherwise it'll end up with 1-2 at best near the coast. I think at this point if JFK gets 1-2 inches it'd be a success. Upton has them getting a half an inch. These forecasts are so hard though because you never know if its going to go February 2008/November 2018 on us or it's going to end up a sleetfest changing to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I think at this point if JFK gets 1-2 inches it'd be a success. Upton has them getting a half an inch. These forecasts are so hard though because you never know if its going to go February 2008/November 2018 on us or it's going to end up a sleetfest changing to rain. National blend of models has JFK with 1.2" and Central Park with 2.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: National blend of models has JFK with 1.2" and Central Park with 2.1" Sounds reasonable. You have to pay to access that right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Sounds reasonable. You have to pay to access that right? I think so, Don posted the numbers in the February thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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