2/28/23 storm threat

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Rgem still cold and snowy 

Still kind of dry but got a little wetter than the last run. 

[CIK62]

The CRITICAL THICKNESS conditions are never met during the time there is precipitation going on and that's that.

Maybe on the roof of 300'+ building in NYC something will be left Tuesday AM.

Any ratio involving 500mb is too high for snow to be left behind.     Snow ratio could be 3:1 in the City.

Right now all the CRs are being met---but alas there is no precipitation happening.      

The reason Models show any snow is that the 850mb T is low enough to generate it---it does not tell you if it can make it to the ground.

Of course in slam dunk storms the 10:1 ratio works fine and can  even be increased.

[EastonSN+]

10 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

As forky said you don't want it to fizzle too much because you doubly can get screwed if it does...one you get less QPF but a weaker system causes more E-SE gradient.  Right now you start SE but the dvlpmt of the sfc low to the SE of us kinks the gradient and it gets CAD like and we go from 090 to 030-050 and hold low level cold air in.  A weaker approaching system basically wave trains the whole thing downstream and you'd be 34-35 with light snow. 

Yeah CPK and LI will need higher rates to compensate for temps.

Westchester and Fairfield counties can get away with weaker sauce.

[Winterweatherlover]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t know why anyone is using 10:1 ratio snow maps for this event. They are wayyyy overdone and inaccurate. And let’s see what the other models do at 12z and 0z. Is it the NAM being the NAM or the start of a trend?

I could see 10:1 ratios north of NYC especially if it’s heavy enough. It should wet bulb down to 32 or even lower in some suburbs and it’s at night. 
 

Given what the RGEM just showed I’d say It’s NAM being the NAM. 

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It did shave off some off the southern edge but that mostly affects Philly to TTN 

Yeah. Other than temps it matters where the precip comes in from. Some of the models are further south with the initial heavier precip which is important.

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Still kind of dry but got a little wetter than the last run. 

You definitely want heavier rates with this given marginal temperatures. 

Rgem with a really nice thump. Very Euro like 

[Winterweatherlover]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah CPK and LI will need higher rates to compensate for temps.

Westchester and Fairfield counties can get away with weaker sauce.

Hard to see why it would be too dry given the temp contrasts north to south and placement of secondary formation being ideal for this region and the warm ocean waters. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

Hard to see why it would be too dry given the temp contrasts north to south and placement of secondary formation being ideal for this region and the warm ocean waters. 

Yeah, snow goose or one of the METS may be able to opine on lift/intensity and banding. 

[MJO812]

[EastonSN+]

Lol I think this is the first storm in my life I am paying more attention to CPK snowfall than my own backyard.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

You definitely want heavier rates with this given marginal temperatures. 

Rgem with a really nice thump. Very Euro like 

Whats odd is the temps aren't that different from the nam. Still showing 33-34 during the peak 

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah. Other than temps it matters where the precip comes in from. Some of the models are further south with the initial heavier precip which is important.

Honestly this probably matters more than anything. Anyone NYC on north should wetbulb to 32 if precip is heavy enough. If it’s light garbage it’ll be white rain all night for anyone south of I80 latitude. 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I do see your point. 

I think the only way to manage such a large area like NYC is to have an official measurement in all Burroughs and average in addition to each airports individual records.

Bronx has a large portion of NYCs population and it's never truly represented in the city's measurement.

 

Since we don't have airports in every borough I imagine we could use parks in each borough that don't have a large airport, which is everyone but Queens lol.  So 4 parks and 2 airports should cover it (since Queens has 2 airports.)  I nominate Prospect Park for Brooklyn, and then we just need to find a good park to use in The Bronx and in Staten Island.

 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Since we don't have airports in every borough I imagine we could use parks in each borough that don't have a large airport, which is everyone but Queens lol.  So 4 parks and 2 airports should cover it (since Queens has 2 airports.)  I nominate Prospect Park for Brooklyn, and then we just need to find a good park to use in The Bronx and in Staten Island.

 

Bronx zoo would be a good representation for bronx it’s right in the middle of borough basically.

 

Although will say the NW bronx is a little less urban  and probably has a climo more similar to southern Westchester than the very urban south bronx. 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

If this is one of those 8” on the north shore dusting on the south shore deals I’m quitting weather 

I dont think that is going to happen....it might be 5" on parts of the north shore and more like 2" on the south shore

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Bronx zoo would be a good representation for bronx it’s right in the middle of borough basically.

 

Although will say the NW bronx is a little less urban  and probably has a climo more similar to southern Westchester than the very urban south bronx. 

It's good to get all the extremes in.  I used to use White Plains to gage Northern Bronx and Northern Nassau County weather and that's probably not that accurate.

Bronx Zoo is really good, now we just need something for Staten Island lol

 

[weatherpruf]

37 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's during the day. Storm comes at night 

Wondering why they kept repeating this...heard it at least a half dozen times with no mention of snow at all, any time. No mention of sleet either. 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

It's good to get all the extremes in.  I used to use White Plains to gage Northern Bronx and Northern Nassau County weather and that's probably not that accurate.

 

I live right at bronx/westchester border and can tell you the climo here is not the same as HPN but definitely closer to HPN than LGA so you’re thinking isn’t way off. 

[SnowGoose69]

19 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I could see 10:1 ratios north of NYC especially if it’s heavy enough. It should wet bulb down to 32 or even lower in some suburbs and it’s at night. 
 

Given what the RGEM just showed I’d say It’s NAM being the NAM. 

The NAM has really been bad this winter...really the RGEM/CMC has probably been the best model overall...at this range though both will generally not correctly see mid level warmth...you really have to be inside 30 hours before you have any good idea.  I am not sure I see this is a system though with a monstrous area of WAA/sleet because its dampening to a degree as it approaches.  I think you're more likely to just have a narrow 10-20 mile area of SNPL or PL somewhere in the transition zone

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I live right at bronx/westchester border and can tell you the climo here is not the same as HPN but definitely closer to HPN than LGA so you’re thinking isn’t way off. 

Thanks, I was thinking of Bridgeport too, but they undermeasure snow so White Plains seems to be better.

 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM has really been bad this winter...really the RGEM/CMC has probably been the best model overall...at this range though both will generally not correctly see mid level warmth...you really have to be inside 30 hours before you have any good idea.  I am not sure I see this is a system though with a monstrous area of WAA/sleet because its dampening to a degree as it approaches.  I think you're more likely to just have a narrow 10-20 mile area of SNPL or PL somewhere in the transition zone

The nam mostly sucks but does find the sneaky warm layers so it shouldn't be completely discounted. Rgem has been good but we haven't had this type of setup this winter 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Wondering why they kept repeating this...heard it at least a half dozen times with no mention of snow at all, any time. No mention of sleet either. 

Probably just rain for you in Woodbridge 

[Allsnow]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

The nam mostly sucks but does find the sneaky warm layers so it shouldn't be completely discounted. Rgem has been good but we haven't had this type of setup this winter 

The nam had 2-4 for us about 12 hours before Saturday non event 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Allsnow said:

The nam had 2-4 for us about 12 hours before Saturday non event 

It’s an awful awful model lately but can sniff mid level warming at least in the past it was good for that. 

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, I was thinking of Bridgeport too, but they undermeasure snow so White Plains seems to be better.

 

THANKS!!

Bridgeport is pathetic. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The nam had 2-4 for us about 12 hours before Saturday non event 

Right. That where it sucks. When other models have nothing and nam shows snow. When it's a borderline temp situation it's a different story

[hooralph]

Central Park is masterpiece of urban planning. Olmstead is a hero to me. If you go there on a summer day "elitist" is the last thing that will come to mind. It still meets the aim he had in creating urban parks - to create egalitarian spaces open to everyone. Go up to Great Hill on a summer day when you'll see big families having BBQ's and grad students wine picnics on the lawn and families having birthday parties.

The CPK reporting station is as far from pavement as you can get in Manhattan and probably as representative of the median conditions across the 5 boroughs as you can get.

And in the winter.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Right. That where it sucks. When other models have nothing and nam shows snow. When it's a borderline temp situation it's a different story

Yea assuming the NAM is still good at that. We haven’t had a storm like this yet this winter to know. 

[ForestHillWx]

I-78 looks the battle zone. I’m 10 miles northwest.
 

Gotta smell the rain to thump the snow. So who knows. 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Yea assuming the NAM is still good at that. We haven’t had a storm like this yet this winter to know. 

I'm definitely hoping it's wrong. It could also swing back colder at 18z