2/28/23 storm threat

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Meanwhile everything is caving towards the GFS on the next storm lol

Uh ? 

This is false

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uh ? 

This is false

Sort of but the ICON and GGEM made notable shifts north.  Its simply too far out at this point though

[wilsonvoid1]

this winter is getting interesting, appetizer today, dinner monday night and cake friday night?


.

[Stormlover74]

Ukie came back south and colder

[HeadInTheClouds]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uh ? 

This is false

Not really. All other models came north and show precip into metro area when before they were OTS. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Not really. All other models came north and show precip into metro area when before they were OTS. 

But in this case those are good trends..as long as gfs isn't leading the way

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

But in this case those are good trends..as long as gfs isn't leading the way

Yes, they are good trends. 

[SnowGoose69]

As forky said you don't want it to fizzle too much because you doubly can get screwed if it does...one you get less QPF but a weaker system causes more E-SE gradient.  Right now you start SE but the dvlpmt of the sfc low to the SE of us kinks the gradient and it gets CAD like and we go from 090 to 030-050 and hold low level cold air in.  A weaker approaching system basically wave trains the whole thing downstream and you'd be 34-35 with light snow. 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Central Park only needs 2.5" between now and April

I'd say 30-40% chance the record falls

I'm using JFK for the record too.  If they stay less than the 72-73 record that should count as the new record since JFK is in New York City too.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Yes part of it is surface temps due to ESE winds off the ocean. The temp in northern NYC and North Shore is around 33 at 5z Tue, at JFK it's 37. That could be all the difference. 

JFK could change over before Philly lol

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, ThatHurricane said:

Interesting gradient in NYC on the models - although in my experience from when I lived in NYC, that usually doesn't hold, and a changeover to rain around JFK is usually soon followed by a changeover to rain or at least sleet in Manhattan/Bronx

It is but there are some rare exceptions and those usually occur earlier in the season when the water is warmer (read:  December), an example is December 2005

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like they're leaning towards advisory for the immediate N suburbs and N from there. Based on today it should probably be one tier south to include the N shore and N parts of the city. There could be a pretty big difference between the south and north shores in this one because we have an ESE surface wind. The ocean is the coldest it gets all year but it still makes a difference in these marginal setups. 

Those usually occur earlier in the season when the water is warmer (read:  December), an example is December 2005.  In a way I'm rooting for this because JFK could hold the new lowest seasonal record for New York City if they stay under the 1972-73 number.  It would be so fitting for JFK to have that record and not Central Park.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm filing a disclaimer complaint with Upton if CPK/NYC gets 1 inch of sleet with this and then adds 1.5 or less elsewhere and we break the record lol....sleet normally counts as snow...well should I say OFFICIALLY does but in this case we should make an exception if it ruins the record 

You're still going by the Central Park number, I'm going to argue that if JFK gets the record that should count as the new record.

 

[wilsonvoid1]

wow euro pretty much held serve for monday night 3-5 and another 8-12 for fri-sat event very nice run hopefully we got this


.

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

wow euro pretty much held serve for monday night 3-5 and another 8-12 for fri-sat event very nice run hopefully we got this


.

Hopefully our luck is finally changing here near the end of winter. Could be a great week for us, but I'm cautiously optimistic. This winter has been so terrible that you expect things to fall apart, but we definitely have a much better chance this week. 

[Snowlover11]

toss the fri-sat storm i got a flight saturday morning, the one time im not wishing for snow

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

toss the fri-sat storm i got a flight saturday morning, the one time im not wishing for snow

toss the flight ;-)

 

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Hopefully our luck is finally changing here near the end of winter. Could be a great week for us, but I'm cautiously optimistic. This winter has been so terrible that you expect things to fall apart, but we definitely have a much better chance this week. 

I just hope the Euro regains some of its former glory.

The media as usual has no clue all they have for the end of the week is a chance of (rain) showers lol and temps in the 50s or even 60.

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm using JFK for the record too.  If they stay less than the 72-73 record that should count as the new record since JFK is in New York City too.

 

JFK is a terrible representation of NYC snowfall wise but I’m sure you already know that. The only positive to that is LaGuardia and JFK usually get storm totals correct. Central Park gets measurements low 80% of the time. 
 

LGA would be a better representative sight, JFK is the southern extreme of NYC.  It would be like using the northern Bronx as the representative sight as the opposite extreme. 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

JFK is a terrible representation of NYC snowfall wise but I’m sure you already know that. The only positive to that is LaGuardia and JFK usually get storm totals correct. Central Park gets measurements low 80% of the time. 
 

LGA would be a better representative sight, JFK is the southern extreme of NYC.  It would be like using the northern Bronx as the representative sight as the opposite extreme. 

But in the sense that we're going by the lowest snowfall total in the entirety of New York City, which consists of 5 boroughs.  If all three didn't have snowfall records going back to 72-73 I'd agree though, it's important to have records from the year with the lowest snowfall for all locations.

Tuesday may not even really matter if we get that big storm at the end of the week.

That's going to get a lot of people by surprise if it happens, since none of the media is talking about anything but rain showers and 60 degrees lol.

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

You're still going by the Central Park number, I'm going to argue that if JFK gets the record that should count as the new record.

 

You can argue all you want but you don't get to move the goalposts because it suits you. 

[snowman19]

The new RGEM is 2-4 area wide. Looks like this will be the 1st plowable snowfall in Sloatsburg since 3/12/22. Insane, almost an entire year without a plowable snow. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022606&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[SnoSki14]

Still think my area in Somerset will be lucky to get an inch. Consensus has the best snows north of I-78 with general 3-6" totals and locally higher amounts. 

On the plus side low level cold has been overperforming as of late and this could be a rare positive bust for those slightly further south.

Keep an eye on wet bulb temps and finally the fact that the storm comes at night helps too. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

You can argue all you want but you don't get to move the goalposts because it suits you. 

I didn't move anything, I've always viewed New York City as a region and not a point

Another example is the heat record being 107 at LGA not 106 from Central Park.

The point being New York City consists of 5 boroughs not one malfunctioning piece of equipment in a Park where no one lives.

I'm proud to say in my 40+ years of living in the region I've never been to Central Park and never plan on ever going there. I hate the place.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The new RGEM is 2-4 area wide. Looks like this will be the 1st plowable snowfall in Sloatsburg since 3/12/22. Insane, almost an entire year without a plowable snow. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022606&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

You must be so disappointed, so close to getting a perfect game and losing it in the ninth inning lol.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

6z models..nam and gfs..cold and snowy. The freezing line is even farther south and barely reaches southern n.y.c at its warmest.

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I didn't move anything, I've always viewed New York City as a region and not a point

Another example is the heat record being 107 at LGA not 106 from Central Park.

The point being New York City consists of 5 boroughs not one malfunctioning piece of equipment in a Park where no one lives.

I'm proud to say in my 40+ years of living in the region I've never been to Central Park and never plan on ever going there. I hate the place.

 

You hate a (great) place that you've never been? You do realize that CP is one of the great city parks in the world, right? I think that you need to go take a walk, maybe on a summer evening when the place is hopping with activity, maybe when there's a show at Summerstage and there's music in the air after you've spent some time at The Met or the Zoo. I think you're cheating yourself out of a prime experience that you can only get in a few cities around the world.

Anyway... This freezing fog this morning kinda sux, good thing it's finally settling out. 

[Allsnow]

06z euro colder 3-6 

[ILoveWinter]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I didn't move anything, I've always viewed New York City as a region and not a point

Another example is the heat record being 107 at LGA not 106 from Central Park.

The point being New York City consists of 5 boroughs not one malfunctioning piece of equipment in a Park where no one lives.

I'm proud to say in my 40+ years of living in the region I've never been to Central Park and never plan on ever going there. I hate the place.

 

Never been to Central Park?! That's nuts as it's truly one of the greatest urban parks in the world. Also, how can you hate it without ever having been there?

 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

You hate a (great) place that you've never been? You do realize that CP is one of the great city parks in the world, right? I think that you need to go take a walk, maybe on a summer evening when the place is hopping with activity, maybe when there's a show at Summerstage and there's music in the air after you've spent some time at The Met or the Zoo. I think you're cheating yourself out of a prime experience that you can only get in a few cities around the world.

Anyway... This freezing fog this morning kinda sux, good thing it's finally settling out. 

I'm much more partial to Prospect Park it's where I grew up.  I've always considered Manhattan and Central Park where the elitist of the elite hang out and I'm not into that kind of snobbery.  I also don't like the obsession over Central Park weather, New York City is a lot larger than just that one park and I feel the conditions over the entire city need to be taken into account when considering records....this discussion has been had on this forum ad infinitum, whether it's averaging of the park plus the two (or three airports if you also consider Newark) or taking the highest and lowest of all of them combined for the records.  I happen to support all of that since it gives a much fuller picture of the city than just one location which isn't even accurate in its measurements of snowfall, wind or temperature.  I've been to the Bronx Zoo and Prospect Park several times, just never Central Park.