Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, ThatHurricane said: Interesting gradient in NYC on the models - although in my experience from when I lived in NYC, that usually doesn't hold, and a changeover to rain around JFK is usually soon followed by a changeover to rain or at least sleet in Manhattan/Bronx It depends on the type of storm and if it's a gradient vs warm air coming in. I do agree I can't think of a time upper Manhattan/Bronx were mainly snow while JFK got almost nothing. Also the maps seem to be showing snow down to JFK but I'm guessing temps are an issue in terms of accumulations? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 0Z RGEM looks good, looks like mostly snow but still kind of dry. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022600&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022600&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: 0Z RGEM looks great! https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022600&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023022600&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Yep got colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: It depends on the type of storm and if it's a gradient vs warm air coming in. I do agree I can't think of a time upper Manhattan/Bronx were mainly snow while JFK got almost nothing. Also the maps seem to be showing snow down to JFK but I'm guessing temps are an issue in terms of accumulations? Yes part of it is surface temps due to ESE winds off the ocean. The temp in northern NYC and North Shore is around 33 at 5z Tue, at JFK it's 37. That could be all the difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 holy shit holy shit holy shit snow we might see snow with no grass poking through im not even trying to down play it im genuinely stoked on this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yep got colder Not bad. 2 to 3 inches for NYC on the RGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Such a close call for our area. We probably won't have a good idea until right before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023022600&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Not bad. 2 to 3 inches for NYC on the RGEM. Certainly got a little colder but also dry compared to other models. Has even some accumulation down to Philly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Such a close call for our area. We probably won't have a good idea until right before the event. Yeah reminds me of those typical Driscoll Bridge changeover events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Certainly got a little colder but also dry compared to other models. Has even some accumulation down to Philly. Yea I wonder why it's drier, is that a bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 This could end up being a great week of winter for you guys! Would you have preferred futility or most of you excited for the chances? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: This could end up being a great week of winter for you guys! Would you have preferred futility or most of you excited for the chances? Tempered excitement 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Nam & Rgem can be pretty amped at this range so seeing them trend colder is a good sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Tempered excitement Exactly, rug could still get pulled and this trends back north at the last minute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Exactly, rug could still get pulled and this trends back north at the last minute. I think, for a change this year, we're seeing some blocking involved to limit how much more north this can go. Tricky, because at the same time, these have ended up tracking farther north at go-time than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Exactly, rug could still get pulled and this trends back north at the last minute. That's always the risk but once the Euro catches onto a trend (stronger blocking/confluence) this close-in it usually doesn't go back. And models are moving towards the Euro not against it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: That's always the risk but once the Euro catches onto a trend (stronger blocking/confluence) this close-in it usually doesn't go back. And models are moving towards the Euro not against it It's hard to see this trending significantly with the Euro and Canadian models both locked in on colder solutions this close to the event. However the scary part is even a small north shift could have big implications for southern parts of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 32 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: This could end up being a great week of winter for you guys! Would you have preferred futility or most of you excited for the chances? Futility is a lousy aspiration. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Gfs completes the cave, 4.2 inches for NYC. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Icon 2 inch line down to middlesex county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Gfs completes the cave, 4.2 inches for NYC. In general it looked about the same to me as last run. Looks like a good front end burst then we see how far north the sleet line for north shore/rain for south shore makes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 53 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Such a close call for our area. We probably won't have a good idea until right before the event. I wouldn't hold my breath. 2-3 inches in a marginal set up for us usually means bupkiss. 60 years experience here. Sleet always arrives more quickly then expected and spreads further than expected. If there is any ESE wind then anyone who is within driving distance from the coast isn't seeing much. Hoping to see a miracle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Cmc colder and brings accumulating snow further south but also drier overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Icon 2 inch line down to middlesex county I have always regarded 1-3 inch predictions as basically nothing, which is usually the case in these setups for our area unless it is really cold. At this point I will believe it when I see it. Some years you get lucky a lot, other years everything fails to come together. No secret where we are this year..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 GGEM is colder than 12z but also a little drier. Accums get down to the northern Philly suburbs. Also less of a front end thump like look so eventually it does get warm enough for the city to change to rain or non-snow. Light precip lingers into Tue morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3z RAP that goes out to 51hr looks very cold. Colder than any model I've seen-even Philly has a couple inches on the 10-1 map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 if this gets too weak we'll wind up with white rain 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 truly unchartered waters this winter as we actually have something to track and do model comparisons on,,,,feel as though I just saw a Bigfoot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Meanwhile everything is caving towards the GFS on the next storm lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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