Allsnow Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Nam colder and further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3k nam Even colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nam colder and further south Still warm but we have time plus it's the nam 48 hours out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Still warm but we have time plus it's the nam 48 hours out Around an inch for us now. The trend was clearly towards the euro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 The NAM shows how the higher intensities lead to snow over lighter precip and drizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 18z RGEM looks as if it would be about 2 inches for NYC even though it's mostly snow. It's mainly light snow. This event seems to be trending colder and weaker. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, winterwx21 said: 18z RGEM looks as if it would be about 2 inches for NYC even though it's mostly snow. It's mainly light snow. This event seems to be trending colder and weaker. Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Good Yeah definitely. Even though it has less upside, a weaker event gives us a better chance of seeing a little accumulating snow. In this pathetic winter, 2 inches would seem like a great event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 18z RGEM looks as if it would be about 2 inches for NYC even though it's mostly snow. It's mainly light snow. This event seems to be trending colder and weaker. Euro seems to be the only model showing both cold and decent qpf. I’d def take the RGEM solution though probably the best we are going to get with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Euro seems to be the only model showing both cold and decent qpf. I’d def take the RGEM solution though probably the best we are going to get with this. RGEM would be 3-5" if the city can stay all snow. Maybe 2-4" because ratios might be under 10-1. This winter it might as well be 24". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: I have a different take. I think HPN might be in a very good spot with this one. I think areas just north of the city could do very well with the front end. It depends how far north the pellets make it but usually being just north of sleet is good for heavy snow in this type of WAA setup. NWS cut HPN down to 2-4 from 3-5. I agree with that assessment. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 NWS still not buying more than a few inches south of 80 and has 1" or less south of 78, but they did move a little snowier vs. this morning (when they had no snow south of 78) and they do tend to not like making big jumps with model jumps, which kind of makes sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, RU848789 said: NWS still not buying more than a few inches south of 80 and has 1" or less south of 78, but they did move a little snowier vs. this morning (when they had no snow south of 78) and they do tend to not like making big jumps with model jumps, which kind of makes sense... Looks like they're leaning towards advisory for the immediate N suburbs and N from there. Based on today it should probably be one tier south to include the N shore and N parts of the city. There could be a pretty big difference between the south and north shores in this one because we have an ESE surface wind. The ocean is the coldest it gets all year but it still makes a difference in these marginal setups. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: 3k nam Even colder Considerably so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Gfs colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Gfs colder nice for our area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Wacky map for sure. Nothing for Allentown. 6+ Morristown but I guess makes sense with the cold pushing down from the NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Yeah definitely colder on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Wacky map for sure. Nothing for Allentown. 6+ Morristown Go by soundings. If you’re using Pivotal you can click on your town at a specific hour and see the sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah definitely colder on the GFS Yeah things are trending towards the Euro. It's almost hard to believe that we might get accumulating snow this winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah things are trending towards the Euro. It's almost hard to believe that we might get accumulating snow this winter. Yup. Our 3 week winter starts today. With what ensembles are showing plus mjo phase 8 I would say 15- 20" for the park when all is said and done 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah things are trending towards the Euro. It's almost hard to believe that we might get accumulating snow this winter. NYC plays it cards right and we might actually see an average season. In theory, we could see an above average snowfall after this dismal winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, binbisso said: Yup. Our 3 week winter starts today. With what ensembles are showing plus mjo phase 8 I would say 15- 20" for the park when all is said and done From your lips to God's ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I wonder if this storm which is trending colder affects the next storm . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I wonder if this storm which is trending colder affects the next storm . Probably for another thread but 18z gfs coming in noticeably colder with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 17 minutes ago, USCG RS said: NYC plays it cards right and we might actually see an average season. In theory, we could see an above average snowfall after this dismal winter. Let's not count our chickens yet. We're still very much borderline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I think gfs too juicy with this showing 5-8 inches most suburbs. If it’s cold it’s gonna be drier. Although I guess I could also see how colder would lead to possibly higher ratios north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Let's not count our chickens yet. We're still very much borderline I said NYC still got to play those cards... Maybe NYC is Kenny Rogers this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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