March 2023

[Dark Star]

57 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Ha. What are your thoughts on this March 10th window? So far have not heard a MET argue against a good look yet (even DT is onboard now). Would like to get your thoughts.

Thanks for the confidence, but I am sour on Friday's precip.  I always defer to Forky, Mr. Sutherland, and Sacrus for the best insight.

[SnoSki14]

34 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Also, all three ensemble suites look nothing like the above MJO plot.

I can only surmise that the La Nina forcing is altering the above charts. 

You have to adjust the MJO to the March Nina to get a better idea. MJO begins to lose relevance by March as well

[SnowGoose69]

45 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

No blocking, atmosphere was very progressive...

I feel as if the PV is also constantly shrunken and less elongated in Canada the last few years even when it makes any presence.  As a result these highs scooting across end up being much further north and these SWFEs end up being New England events.  It’s as if you can shift the whole axis of what they were 20-30 years ago 100 miles north 

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Just shows you how the snow totals never really tell the story in a winter...03-04 was not overly cold at all from 12/1-1/5 or so but we had like 25 inches of snow...90-91 was another winter with decent snows around the area but we fluked into 2 SWFEs early with horrible patterns...it really just comes down to timing...this year as I am sure you are aware every damn time we had a high sliding across Canada we never could time a storm with it

Wait I thought 2003-04 was VERY cold, especially December and January when we had those snowstorms-- Heavy snow and temps in the single digits and January 2004 was historically cold!  In December we had snow with temps in the teens in early December that is unheardof!

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I feel as if the PV is also constantly shrunken and less elongated in Canada the last few years even when it makes any presence.  As a result these highs scooting across end up being much further north and these SWFEs end up being New England events.  It’s as if you can shift the whole axis of what they were 20-30 years ago 100 miles north 

Does that explain why we dont get bowling ball events (west to east storms) and as many clippers as we used to?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's what's happening with the Friday storm and we still lose. Persistence usually works out well. 

We got lucky last night like we got lucky in other bad years like 01/02 but overall persistence wins. After looking at the March weeklies I'm going with cold/dry (-2 departure) and under 3" of snow mostly from clipper like systems. 

we didn't really get lucky in 01-02 our total snowfall was under 4 inches lol

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wait I thought 2003-04 was VERY cold, especially December and January when we had those snowstorms-- Heavy snow and temps in the single digits and January 2004 was historically cold!  In December we had snow with temps in the teens in early December that is unheardof!

 

It was in mid to late January but February into mid March was very mild and December was near to slightly above I think.  As a matter of fact 03-04 was and I think still is only case where NYC had double digit snow in December and January and failed to see even an inch in February  

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Just shows you how the snow totals never really tell the story in a winter...03-04 was not overly cold at all from 12/1-1/5 or so but we had like 25 inches of snow...90-91 was another winter with decent snows around the area but we fluked into 2 SWFEs early with horrible patterns...it really just comes down to timing...this year as I am sure you are aware every damn time we had a high sliding across Canada we never could time a storm with it

wasn't February 1991 when we had the 30 hour surprise snowstorm with 8"?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wow GEFS caved to the EPS.

We have the pattern, I would wager against striking out again like December. Can't get hit by lightning twice in one year 

That December pattern was never going to work out, December is not a good month for this area for snow, March is better.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It was in mid to late January but February into mid March was very mild and December was near to slightly above I think.  As a matter of fact 03-04 was and I think still is only case where NYC had double digit snow in December and January and failed to see even an inch in February  

That actually reminds me a bit of 2010-11, was it also a La Nina?

We were so close to going below zero in January.

February 2015 beat it for cold and snow, but before then I think January 2004 was the coldest month here since January 1994.

 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Does that explain why we dont get bowling ball events (west to east storms) and as many clippers as we used to?

 

Probably not but there also seems to be a tendency for every damn storm to want to amp or phase out of the plains.  PSU in the MA forum mentioned this about the fact every darn trof now even with a good EPO wants to dig to Baja and the discussion evolved where many of us think perhaps the reason is some time of impact from the warm Atlantic SSTs and SE ridge being stronger allows greater amplification of a western trof, even in patterns that worked to produce a full latitude US trof in say 1988.  The crazy SE ridge has also seemingly resulted in lack of a 50/50 feature making the crazy full latitude ridge with a -NAO happen often recently 

[Volcanic Winter]

@psuhoffman has also been talking about the possibility of us being in a new -PDO period for a couple decades, and how the prior -PDO period in the middle of last century often featured a crappy Pac that was offset by Atlantic blocking that functionally produced snow in a pattern we would recognize as less than stellar today. I’ve read all his posts, he has some very interesting thoughts on the state of things. He’s suggested the last few years that blocking has begun to fail more frequently and if we’re truly going -PDO for a while (on average, I know it still does oscillate back and forth a bit), it could signal trouble. 

Not suggesting he’s 100% right, and he isn’t either. But he’s a very interesting and informative poster. His series of charts on the 1960’s showing the patterns that produced snow was very enlightening. Lots of -PNA but also -NAO blocking. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

PSU has also been talking about the possibility of us being in a new -PDO period for a couple decades, and how the prior -PDO period in the middle of last century often featured a crappy Pac that was offset by Atlantic blocking that functionally produced snow in a pattern we would recognize as less than stellar today. I’ve read all his posts, he has some very interesting thoughts on the state of things. He’s suggested the last few years that blocking has begun to fail more frequently and if we’re truly going -PDO for a while (on average, I know it still does oscillate back and forth a bit), it could signal trouble. 

Not suggesting he’s 100% right, and he isn’t either. But he’s a very interesting and informative poster. His series of charts on the 1960’s showing the patterns that produced snow was very enlightening. Lots of -PNA but also -NAO blocking. 

This is correct, the -PDO was forecast back in the 00s when we went through our big snowfall period.

The last time this happened was in the 50s.  Back then March was our snowiest month too and there was an uptick in tropical activity along the east coast especially.

It happens in 30 year cycles if I remember correctly. 

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Probably not but there also seems to be a tendency for every damn storm to want to amp or phase out of the plains.  PSU in the MA forum mentioned this about the fact every darn trof now even with a good EPO wants to dig to Baja and the discussion evolved where many of us think perhaps the reason is some time of impact from the warm Atlantic SSTs and SE ridge being stronger allows greater amplification of a western trof, even in patterns that worked to produce a full latitude US trof in say 1988.  The crazy SE ridge has also seemingly resulted in lack of a 50/50 feature making the crazy full latitude ridge with a -NAO happen often recently 

Yes and this same thing in the summer sends the most anomalous heat into new england and southern canada and why we see TC tracking farther north closer to the coast too.

 

[North and West]

Suppression depression. The only game in town is Friday. If that's a flop, looking likely, then it's BN & dry. 

Good - I want my yard and my kids’ baseball fields drying out.


.

[SnowGoose69]

11 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

PSU has also been talking about the possibility of us being in a new -PDO period for a couple decades, and how the prior -PDO period in the middle of last century often featured a crappy Pac that was offset by Atlantic blocking that functionally produced snow in a pattern we would recognize as less than stellar today. I’ve read all his posts, he has some very interesting thoughts on the state of things. He’s suggested the last few years that blocking has begun to fail more frequently and if we’re truly going -PDO for a while (on average, I know it still does oscillate back and forth a bit), it could signal trouble. 

Not suggesting he’s 100% right, and he isn’t either. But he’s a very interesting and informative poster. His series of charts on the 1960’s showing the patterns that produced snow was very enlightening. Lots of -PNA but also -NAO blocking. 

I wonder though if the inevitable flip to a cold AMO in the next few years, even if it’s a bastardized or muted cold AMO might help the Atlantic issue somewhat 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I wonder though if the inevitable flip to a cold AMO in the next few years, even if it’s a bastardized or muted cold AMO might help the Atlantic issue somewhat 

doesn't that lead to cold and dry a la the 80s?

[Volcanic Winter]

23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I wonder though if the inevitable flip to a cold AMO in the next few years, even if it’s a bastardized or muted cold AMO might help the Atlantic issue somewhat 

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abc5810
 

I know what I’m reading today.
 

From the AMO wiki page, a section mentioned this 2021 paper theorizing past AMO flips have been instigated by volcanic forcing. 
 

Edit: Sigh. As long as I can access the article, I’ll have to do some digging. This type of science should never be paywalled IMO. 

[SnowGoose69]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

doesn't that lead to cold and dry a la the 80s?

It can but the 80s was more bad luck than anything.  But as a whole it will result in less storminess and usually less tropical activity 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It can but the 80s was more bad luck than anything.  But as a whole it will result in less storminess and usually less tropical activity 

plus -PNA I think, those were some really good years on the west coast

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abc5810
 

I know what I’m reading today.
 

From the AMO wiki page, a section mentioned this 2021 paper theorizing past AMO flips have been instigated by volcanic forcing. 
 

Edit: Sigh. As long as I can access the article, I’ll have to do some digging. This type of science should never be paywalled IMO. 

you do love your volcanoes dont you lol

 

[Volcanic Winter]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

you do love your volcanoes dont you lol

 

Just wait until the next VEI 6 explosive dacitic to rhyolitic eruption on land that isn’t buried deep in the pacific (though thankfully HTHH was in terms of human impact, for sure), you’ll understand why in the era of modern photography. The images of Pinatubo’s main mega blast were obscured by the incoming typhoon and the hasty evacuation of the military base there. It would blow your mind the scale and raw power. The photos that do exist of Pinatubo’s climactic blast are already insane. Do note that the majority of common images of that event are from its precursory plinian eruptions or “throat clearing” episodes. The main event caused a gigantic cascading pyroclastic flow underneath a monstrous eruptive column. And Pinatubo was only a borderline or otherwise “small” 6 (yet it still caused a true volcanic winter as it was highly, extremely sulfurous). 
 

(Whatever that time stamp is this is known to be from June 15th, the day of the climactic blast)

Not to stray too far off topic, but I always connect back to how Pinatubo caused a significant volcanic cooling episode, as has happened numerous times throughout history. Interesting how that article links this to shifts in the AMO and other oceanic patterns, if only I’ll be able to read it, lol. I would wonder how HTHH may fit into that, however anomalous it was it certainly was of the size necessary for global scale impacts. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Models are showing a transfer for Fri/Sat but it’s way later than todays storm was. Might be enough to save NE but not us. 

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Just wait until the next VEI 6 explosive dacitic to rhyolitic eruption on land that isn’t buried deep in the pacific (though thankfully HTHH was in terms of human impact, for sure), you’ll understand why in the era of modern photography. The images of Pinatubo’s main mega blast were obscured by the incoming typhoon and the hasty evacuation of the military base there. It would blow your mind the scale and raw power. The photos that do exist of Pinatubo’s climactic blast are already insane. Do note that the majority of common images of that event are from its precursory plinian eruptions or “throat clearing” episodes. The main event caused a gigantic cascading pyroclastic flow underneath a monstrous eruptive column. And Pinatubo was only a borderline or otherwise “small” 6 (yet it still caused a true volcanic winter as it was highly, extremely sulfurous). 
 

(Whatever that time stamp is this is known to be from June 15th, the day of the climactic blast)

Not to stray too far off topic, but I always connect back to how Pinatubo caused a significant volcanic cooling episode, as has happened numerous times throughout history. Interesting how that article links this to shifts in the AMO and other oceanic patterns, if only I’ll be able to read it, lol. I would wonder how HTHH may fit into that, however anomalous it was it certainly was of the size necessary for global scale impacts. 

It's worth noting that it didn't give us an extremely snowy winter though (unless 93-94 counts for a delayed impact, as some claim.)

El Chichon was another one in 1982, which was claimed to have been a reason for the February 1983 HECS although as we have seen, very strong ninos can have those huge snowstorms even if it's the only one that winter.

The biggest impact I have seen from volcanoes are amazingly dark total lunar eclipses. The one in December 1982 literally looked like a black hole hanging in the sky at 4:30 am.  And that was after the July 1982 total lunar eclipse which was one of the brightest of all time, the moon was a bright orange at 3:30 am!

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I feel as if the PV is also constantly shrunken and less elongated in Canada the last few years even when it makes any presence.  As a result these highs scooting across end up being much further north and these SWFEs end up being New England events.  It’s as if you can shift the whole axis of what they were 20-30 years ago 100 miles north 

Correct. Both the December storm and this Friday are partially a result of a shrunken PV

It takes more things to go right for us to score. 

[Volcanic Winter]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's worth noting that it didn't give us an extremely snowy winter though (unless 93-94 counts for a delayed impact, as some claim.)

El Chichon was another one in 1982, which was claimed to have been a reason for the February 1983 HECS although as we have seen, very strong ninos can have those huge snowstorms even if it's the only one that winter.

The biggest impact I have seen from volcanoes are amazingly dark total lunar eclipses. The one in December 1982 literally looked like a black hole hanging in the sky at 4:30 am.  And that was after the July 1982 total lunar eclipse which was one of the brightest of all time, the moon was a bright orange at 3:30 am!

 

Yup, the impact of a volcanic winter may not be felt equally among all regions at the same time, and one year of Pinatubo’s cooling episode was somewhat offset by ENSO conditions or so I’ve read for much of NA. Would have to refresh on that. Still, caused a significant global drop in average temperature (see here: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/1510/global-effects-of-mount-pinatubo). Just difficult to link to individual, regional weather events. It’s more of a broad diffuse influence on global circulation patterns as best I understand that may express more or less strongly in different regions at different times. Still an interesting phenomenon that can have some profound effects, not unlike a SSW but for a much longer duration (usually 2-3 years, but larger eruptions than Pinatubo that have some constructive additional forcing have been theorized to last for a decade or longer. Subject of research wrt the LIA whereas volcanism was believed to be a large component due to a very large clustering of large explosive events). 

[vegan_edible]

1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Models are showing a transfer for Fri/Sat but it’s way later than todays storm was. Might be enough to save NE but not us. 

hope we can pull something on this one. doubt it but itd be nice to see a little more snow this week

[Winterweatherlover]

29 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

hope we can pull something on this one. doubt it but itd be nice to see a little more snow this week

I think this one is a lost cause other than maybe a front end inch. Hopefully the 3-10-3/20 period delivers. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Hate to say it but nice win for the gfs with the late week storm. Seems Snowman19 is right that is the GFS is amped in the long medium range it's usually not a good sign for snow.  

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I think this one is a lost cause other than maybe a front end inch. Hopefully the 3-10-3/20 period delivers. 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I think this one is a lost cause other than maybe a front end inch. Hopefully the 3-10-3/20 period delivers. 

Yeah the 12z Euro is a big rainstorm. Maybe a little front end snow to the north and west. Even if we get a little bit of front end snow-sleet with this one, it would quickly get washed away by a lot of rain (unlike last night's event). So Friday doesn't look interesting at all. 

Looks as if it's gonna be awhile before we have something interesting to track. As you said, hopefully the expected colder pattern coming in for the 2nd week of March will deliver for us.