Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: I still have some concerns the front running system is going to mess this storm up to some degree...it may just take another 24-36 hours til the models begin seeing it I get the sense you think this may still be less amplified that currently depicted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Remember all those drool worthy runs in December. All we got was a big cutter and a couple frigid days for Christmas. Just because it doesn't workout doesn't mean it's not a good pattern. If we get the December pattern again in March and get a little luckier it could be real interesting. On the flip side a bad setup can also sometimes kind of work out like tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Remember all those drool worthy runs in December. All we got was a big cutter and a couple frigid days for Christmas. Mjo was never in 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: Just because it doesn't workout doesn't mean it's not a good pattern. If we get the December pattern again in March and get a little luckier it could be real interesting. On the flip side a bad setup can also sometimes kind of work out like tonight. That kind of pattern works out much more often in March than it does in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Canadian a little south for Friday, mainly sleet verbatim for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 The 0Z GEFS in week 2 just about completely caved to the colder EPS! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 hours ago, GaWx said: The 0Z GEFS in week 2 just about completely caved to the colder EPS! Yep it's about to get wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 What a fantastic look for March. Tanking EPO Rising PNA Negative NAO Dropping AO MJO in 8 at a high amplitude DT is now on board for an active March along with other meteorologists. GEFS and EPS are also on board 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What a fantastic look for March. Tanking EPO Rising PNA Negative NAO Dropping AO MJO in 8 at a high amplitude DT is now on board for an active March along with other meteorologists. GEFS and EPS are also on board That’s great news, but can we save the Friday storm in time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Will await the results, but Bastardi did project exceptional weather for March a little while back. His forecast was held up to ridicule, perhaps prematurely?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 22 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: That’s great news, but can we save the Friday storm in time? The good period gets going around the 10th. That being said, we can still get confluence and start as snow and maybe a couple inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Yep it's about to get wild There are no threats on the horizon after Friday and BN in March means highs in the 40s, not exactly wild. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: There are no threats on the horizon after Friday and BN in March means highs in the 40s, not exactly wild. What are you even looking at ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 37 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: That’s great news, but can we save the Friday storm in time? Hopefully we can salvage some snow in the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Wow GEFS caved to the EPS. We have the pattern, I would wager against striking out again like December. Can't get hit by lightning twice in one year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What are you even looking at ? The extent of BN anomalies is impressive however the coldest air remains west. This would be a good look for DJF when climo is favorable. By mid March averages are pushing 50. The cold will equal 40s for highs and barely below freezing lows. On sunny days we could still get to 50+ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 12 hours ago, MJO812 said: Mjo was never in 8 Amazingly we got snow out of this "cutter". 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: The extent of BN anomalies is impressive however the coldest air remains west. This would be a good look for DJF when climo is favorable. By mid March averages are pushing 50. The cold will equal 40s for highs and barely below freezing lows. On sunny days we could still get to 50+ You WANT this in a strong block otherwise you are suppressed and it's congratulations MA. Look at last night the RNA actually helped us. If the RNA was weaker we risk suppression. Take a look at the MA, this and the NE sub forums. Most METS are onboard with only posters arguing against. Most of the arguments are just from "persistence". Now, if you can convince me how the H5 look is likely to fail I am all ears. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 minute ago, Dark Star said: Amazingly we got snow out of this "cutter". This was one of the most impressive miller Bs I have lived through. I only received 5.1 inches, however mixing in buffalo to a low off the Delmarva and 1.8 at the park shows how intense the NAO was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Wow GEFS caved to the EPS. We have the pattern, I would wager against striking out again like December. Can't get hit by lightning twice in one year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: You WANT this in a strong block otherwise you are suppressed and it's congratulations MA. Look at last night the RNA actually helped us. If the RNA was weaker we risk suppression. Take a look at the MA, this and the NE sub forums. Most METS are onboard with only posters arguing against. Most of the arguments are just from "persistence". Now, if you can convince me how the H5 look is likely to fail I am all ears. Suppression depression. The only game in town is Friday. If that's a flop, looking likely, then it's BN & dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Just now, Dark Star said: Ha. What are your thoughts on this March 10th window? So far have not heard a MET argue against a good look yet (even DT is onboard now). Would like to get your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Suppression depression Correct! See, we WANT the RNA to pump the SER a little. If not, congrats MA. This year the RNA has created a historic winter for California, Arizona, Nevada etc. If we are all onboard the persistence train, then the RNA will help us rise the SER. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Correct! See, we WANT the RNA to pump the SER a little. If not, congrats MA. This year the RNA has created a historic winter for California, Arizona, Nevada etc. If we are all onboard the persistence train, then the RNA will help us rise the SER. That's what's happening with the Friday storm and we still lose. Persistence usually works out well. We got lucky last night like we got lucky in other bad years like 01/02 but overall persistence wins. After looking at the March weeklies I'm going with cold/dry (-2 departure) and under 3" of snow mostly from clipper like systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: That's what's happening with the Friday storm and we still lose. We are still in play for a coating to 2 inches before the flip. Also, the good period starts around the 10th when the RNA is not too powerful like the late week warmup. Take a look at H5 on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Wow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 18 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Amazingly we got snow out of this "cutter". Just shows you how the snow totals never really tell the story in a winter...03-04 was not overly cold at all from 12/1-1/5 or so but we had like 25 inches of snow...90-91 was another winter with decent snows around the area but we fluked into 2 SWFEs early with horrible patterns...it really just comes down to timing...this year as I am sure you are aware every damn time we had a high sliding across Canada we never could time a storm with it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Just shows you how the snow totals never really tell the story in a winter...03-04 was not overly cold at all from 12/1-1/5 or so but we had like 25 inches of snow...90-91 was another winter with decent snows around the area but we fluked into 2 SWFEs early with horrible patterns...it really just comes down to timing...this year as I am sure you are aware every damn time we had a high sliding across Canada we never could time a storm with it How do you interpret the phase 1 March MJO look? NE is warm while the SE is cold. Is that "south based" blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Just shows you how the snow totals never really tell the story in a winter...03-04 was not overly cold at all from 12/1-1/5 or so but we had like 25 inches of snow...90-91 was another winter with decent snows around the area but we fluked into 2 SWFEs early with horrible patterns...it really just comes down to timing...this year as I am sure you are aware every damn time we had a high sliding across Canada we never could time a storm with it No blocking, atmosphere was very progressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: How do you interpret the phase 1 March MJO look? NE is warm while the SE is cold. Is that "south based" blocking? Also, all three ensemble suites look nothing like the above MJO plot. I can only surmise that the La Nina forcing is altering the above charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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