March 2023

[donsutherland1]

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm wondering if we could get one last one Sunday night and Monday morning, that may be the last morning in the 30s and perhaps has a chance of getting to freezing.

 

If there's strong radiational cooling, perhaps. Right now, I think Monday morning will finish around 34°-35° at JFK.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Is there a way to find out what the biggest gap in lows between JFK, LGA and NYC has ever been? That 9 degree gap has to be one of the largest I've ever seen.  JFK was much closer to FRG.  It was actually colder this morning than it was the previous morning.  This goes to show how artificial the climate of NYC (and LGA) really is, while JFK and EWR have much more natural temperatures ranges.

NYC has had a strong UHI effect for the low temperatures since the late 1800s. Warmer lows than Newark but the highs were similar before the tree growth over the sensor.

 

 

Data for August 11, 1896 through August 11, 1896
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	81
NJ	NEWARK	COOP	78
NY	BRONX	COOP	78
NY	WORLD TRADE CENTER	WBAN	76
CT	NEW LONDON	COOP	75
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	74
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	73
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	73
CT	BRIDGEPORT	COOP	73
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	73

 

Data for August 11, 1896 through August 11, 1896
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	97
NJ	NEWARK	COOP	97
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	96
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	96
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	96
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	96
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	95
NY	BRONX	COOP	94

 

Data for August 14, 1908 through August 14, 1908
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	84
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	75
NJ	NEWARK	COOP	75
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	75
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	74
NY	CARMEL	COOP	74
NY	SALISBURY MILLS	COOP	73
NY	CUTCHOGUE	COOP	73
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	72

 

Data for August 14, 1908 through August 14, 1908
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	95
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	94
NY	MOUNT HOPE	COOP	93
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	93
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	93
CT	WATERBURY ANACONDA	COOP	92
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	92

 

Data for July 2, 1901 through July 2, 1901
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	82
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	80
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	80
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	79
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	79
NJ	NEWARK	COOP	78

 

Data for July 2, 1901 through July 2, 1901
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	105
NY	MOUNT HOPE	COOP	104
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	104
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	103
NJ	NEWARK	COOP	103
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	102
CT	WATERBURY ANACONDA	COOP	102
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	102
NY	SALISBURY MILLS	COOP	100
CT	NORWALK	COOP	100
CT	BRIDGEPORT	COOP	100
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	100
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	100

 

Data for July 1, 1901 through July 1, 1901
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	79
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	78
NJ	NEWARK	COOP	76
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	74
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	74
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	73
NY	CARMEL	COOP	73
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	73

 

 

Data for July 1, 1901 through July 1, 1901
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	104
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	102
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	102
NJ	NEWARK	COOP	102
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	102
NY	MOUNT HOPE	COOP	102
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	100

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC has had a strong UHI effect for the low temperatures since the late 1800s. Warmer lows than Newark but the highs were similar before the tree growth over the sensor.

 

 

Data for August 11, 1896 through August 11, 1896
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	81
NJ	NEWARK	COOP	78
NY	BRONX	COOP	78
NY	WORLD TRADE CENTER	WBAN	76
CT	NEW LONDON	COOP	75
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	74
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	73
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	73
CT	BRIDGEPORT	COOP	73
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	73

 

Data for August 11, 1896 through August 11, 1896
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	97
NJ	NEWARK	COOP	97
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	96
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	96
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	96
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	96
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	95
NY	BRONX	COOP	94

 

Data for August 14, 1908 through August 14, 1908
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	84
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	75
NJ	NEWARK	COOP	75
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	75
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	74
NY	CARMEL	COOP	74
NY	SALISBURY MILLS	COOP	73
NY	CUTCHOGUE	COOP	73
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	72

 

Data for August 14, 1908 through August 14, 1908
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	95
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	94
NY	MOUNT HOPE	COOP	93
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	93
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	93
CT	WATERBURY ANACONDA	COOP	92
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	92

 

Data for July 2, 1901 through July 2, 1901
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	82
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	80
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	80
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	79
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	79
NJ	NEWARK	COOP	78

 

Data for July 2, 1901 through July 2, 1901
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	105
NY	MOUNT HOPE	COOP	104
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	104
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	103
NJ	NEWARK	COOP	103
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	102
CT	WATERBURY ANACONDA	COOP	102
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	102
NY	SALISBURY MILLS	COOP	100
CT	NORWALK	COOP	100
CT	BRIDGEPORT	COOP	100
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	100
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	100

 

Data for July 1, 1901 through July 1, 1901
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	79
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	78
NJ	NEWARK	COOP	76
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	74
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	74
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	73
NY	CARMEL	COOP	73
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	73

 

 

Data for July 1, 1901 through July 1, 1901
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	104
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	102
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	102
NJ	NEWARK	COOP	102
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	102
NY	MOUNT HOPE	COOP	102
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	100

The other unusual thing about last night was the significant gap between JFK and EWR.  I wonder what made the low at JFK 4 degrees lower than EWR-- did cloud cover creep into EWR earlier?  What time were the low temps at JFK vs EWR (and NYC and LGA if you have their data too?)  Thanks, Chris!

 

[LibertyBell]

I'm aghast at some of those records lol.....it's hard to get Bridgeport to hit 100 in the current era, let alone in 1901 lol.

And lows in the mid 80s in 1901 and 1908....how did people deal with this before electricity and air conditioners in crowded urban areas?

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Is there a way to find out what the biggest gap in lows between JFK, LGA and NYC has ever been? That 9 degree gap has to be one of the largest I've ever seen.  JFK was much closer to FRG.  It was actually colder this morning than it was the previous morning.  This goes to show how artificial the climate of NYC (and LGA) really is, while JFK and EWR have much more natural temperatures ranges.

I think 9° on a radiational cooling night between JFK-LGA-NYC is near the upper limit. But have no idea what the max difference is for those sites for radiational cooling. 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Is there a way to find out what the biggest gap in lows between JFK, LGA and NYC has ever been? That 9 degree gap has to be one of the largest I've ever seen.  JFK was much closer to FRG.  It was actually colder this morning than it was the previous morning.  This goes to show how artificial the climate of NYC (and LGA) really is, while JFK and EWR have much more natural temperatures ranges.

The largest gaps in low temperatures between JFK and Central Park are below:

[SnoSki14]

So I'm guessing we'll be seeing another tornado or two per slight risk from SPC. We managed one in Feb so we can definitely get some tomorrow.

[MJO812]

Euro with a snowstorm day 9

[lee59]

20s here last night

[SRRTA22]

@Rtd208 our first slight risk of the season! 5% tornado risk just south of NYC, with a 2% introduced for NYC. If we can clear out early, I can see an enhanced being introduced for areas in central NJ. Maybe even NYC itself. 

 

[SRRTA22]

18z HRRR has a supercell moving over the linden/carteret areas with a decent helicity swath

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The largest gaps in low temperatures between JFK and Central Park are below:

wow that's amazing Don!  2/11/1966 meets what I was looking for, which is the largest gap in the winter where one is close to freezing.  I believe that was just after a blizzard, as there was one around 2/11/1966?  I wonder if there was a lot of snowcover on the ground that morning?  Also do you have the largest gap where JFK was at or below freezing?  Thanks!

 

That low of 74 at NYC on 4/17/2002 is startling....I remember the heatwave that month very well but didn't remember the huge gap in night time lows.  Looks like another thing that heatwave had in common with the heatwave in April 1976!

I also remember the April 1991 period, as it was the earliest 90 degree day at NYC (until April 2010).  Both were amongst our hottest summers.

I see the amazing March 1998 heat is up there, surprised the heat in March 1990 isn't.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will likely start April off on a much warmer than normal note as showers give way to some sunshine. Another cold front could bring potentially damaging thunderstorms to the region late in the day. Highs will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s in the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

Overall, the first week of April will likely turn out warmer than normal. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will remain confined largely to western and central North America. Some of the guidance now brings the cooler air into the East for the second week of April, but considerable uncertainty exists. In terms of the month as a whole, it is somewhat more likely than not that April will wind up on the warm side of normal.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now extremely likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -4.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.227 today.

On March 29 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.574 (RMM). The March 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.030 (RMM).

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

wow that's amazing Don!  2/11/1966 meets what I was looking for, which is the largest gap in the winter where one is close to freezing.  I believe that was just after a blizzard, as there was one around 2/11/1966?  I wonder if there was a lot of snowcover on the ground that morning?  Also do you have the largest gap where JFK was at or below freezing?  Thanks!

 

That low of 74 at NYC on 4/17/2002 is startling....I remember the heatwave that month very well but didn't remember the huge gap in night time lows.  Looks like another thing that heatwave had in common with the heatwave in April 1976!

I also remember the April 1991 period, as it was the earliest 90 degree day at NYC (until April 2010).  Both were amongst our hottest summers.

I see the amazing March 1998 heat is up there, surprised the heat in March 1990 isn't.

 

 

There was no snowcover on February 11, 1966.

The largest difference when the temperature was 32° or below at JFK was 12°:

January 21, 2018: JFK: 30°; NYC: 42°

February 5, 2019: JFK: 32°; NYC: 44°

February 9, 2023: JFK: 30°; NYC: 42°

[Roger Smith]

My understanding was that the NYC weather station was not in Central Park until 1920 or thereabouts, and was somewhere a few blocks southeast of the park in a more urbanized setting. That may account for the large number of high minima in the period 1896 to 1908 in particular when the numbers look a bit out of step with the overall temperature trends. The urban heat island is caused by retention of daytime heat as well as release of heat from within buildings (more of a factor in winter) and vehicle traffic (not likely to be significant before 1920). Possibly these very warm summer nights that show up in that era have some relation to the urban setting (as opposed to the park) and even back then the density of buildings must have retained quite a lot of daytime heat after hot, sunny days. While a lot of temperature trends are similar for Toronto (downtown) and NYC, I don't see this spike of record high minima in the same period; the results are closer to matching record high maxima. But the location of the Toronto downtown station has always been in a sort of park-like setting (a university campus) and has not changed much within half a mile of the instruments, even as the city has grown. That does have some effect as these parks are just relative cool spots within the wider urban heat islands, and won't be anywhere near as cool as similar sites outside the metropolitan area. 

Another factor to keep in mind would be sea breeze effects at JFK, a weak sea breeze might not penetrate the urban area as far inland as Central Park or even more southern portions of Manhattan (or Brooklyn-Queens) but it could easily get to the JFK location. 

A third point would be the random variability of temperatures in different locations during weather patterns with light winds. I found during some research as a student that you could find differences of 2-4 degrees within a few hundred feet in similar settings using calibrated instruments. It was simply a case of the air not mixing very efficiently, and in some cases the differentials could be quite large even closer together. The bottom line is there is no perfect location to capture the climate of any given region which would include a large city. Rainfall and snowfall variations of course are even more significant. 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

There was no snowcover on February 11, 1966.

The largest difference when the temperature was 32° or below at JFK was 12°:

January 21, 2018: JFK: 30°; NYC: 42°

February 5, 2019: JFK: 32°; NYC: 44°

February 9, 2023: JFK: 30°; NYC: 42°

wow these are all recent!

I wonder if UHI has increased in the last 10 years or so?

The spring and summer records can be due to JFK being near the ocean, but the ones above seem to be because of UHI.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

My understanding was that the NYC weather station was not in Central Park until 1920 or thereabouts, and was somewhere a few blocks southeast of the park in a more urbanized setting. That may account for the large number of high minima in the period 1896 to 1908 in particular when the numbers look a bit out of step with the overall temperature trends. The urban heat island is caused by retention of daytime heat as well as release of heat from within buildings (more of a factor in winter) and vehicle traffic (not likely to be significant before 1920). Possibly these very warm summer nights that show up in that era have some relation to the urban setting (as opposed to the park) and even back then the density of buildings must have retained quite a lot of daytime heat after hot, sunny days. While a lot of temperature trends are similar for Toronto (downtown) and NYC, I don't see this spike of record high minima in the same period; the results are closer to matching record high maxima. But the location of the Toronto downtown station has always been in a sort of park-like setting (a university campus) and has not changed much within half a mile of the instruments, even as the city has grown. That does have some effect as these parks are just relative cool spots within the wider urban heat islands, and won't be anywhere near as cool as similar sites outside the metropolitan area. 

Another factor to keep in mind would be sea breeze effects at JFK, a weak sea breeze might not penetrate the urban area as far inland as Central Park or even more southern portions of Manhattan (or Brooklyn-Queens) but it could easily get to the JFK location. 

A third point would be the random variability of temperatures in different locations during weather patterns with light winds. I found during some research as a student that you could find differences of 2-4 degrees within a few hundred feet in similar settings using calibrated instruments. It was simply a case of the air not mixing very efficiently, and in some cases the differentials could be quite large even closer together. The bottom line is there is no perfect location to capture the climate of any given region which would include a large city. Rainfall and snowfall variations of course are even more significant. 

That's why I'm specifically looking for temperatures in the mid 30s or lower for JFK because that would rule out the sea breeze effect.

I wonder if the recent build up of more skyscrapers over the past decade and a half or so has something to do with more heat retention?  There are a lot more tall skyscrapers now.

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow these are all recent!

I wonder if UHI has increased in the last 10 years or so?

The spring and summer records can be due to JFK being near the ocean, but the ones above seem to be because of UHI.

 

The UHI footprint is mature. The land is warming faster than the ocean. Thus such recent differences may not be too surprising.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The UHI footprint is mature. The land is warming faster than the ocean. Thus such recent differences may not be too surprising.

I'm also wondering if construction of these new skyscrapers is serving to trap in heat.

I don't like NYC's new skyline and new skyscrapers for a wide variety of reasons.

[rclab]

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm also wondering if construction of these new skyscrapers is serving to trap in heat.

I don't like NYC's new skyline and new skyscrapers for a wide variety of reasons.

Good afternoon Liberty. From my rooftop, I noticed Brooklyn has it own 1,000’ middle finger. Stay well, as always ….

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm also wondering if construction of these new skyscrapers is serving to trap in heat.

I don't like NYC's new skyline and new skyscrapers for a wide variety of reasons.

I suspect that the new construction has some microscale impacts.

[LibertyBell]

53 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good afternoon Liberty. From my rooftop, I noticed Brooklyn has it own 1,000’ middle finger. Stay well, as always ….

Yes I sadly noticed Brooklyn is getting its own skyline

 

[wdrag]

For what it's worth, I always follow up, good or bad on sense of what may happen.

 

Posted p1 March whenever this thread started.  

Will March average within a degree of normal at CP... possibly less than the actual January 2023 average.  Also, can March reach the 5" average for snowfall at CP? Prevailing impressions from the snow drought distraught are probably not. 

 

As it turns out... March was another dud for the winter.

Mean temp:  Jan 43.5.  Feb 41.1.  March 44.6. (PLUS 1.8F)

Have a super summer.