March 2023

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of March are averaging    44degs.(37/52) or -3.5.

Month to date is    44.7[+2.3].       March should end at    44.6[+1.8].

Reached 52 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:     52-55, wind changeable w.,  p. sunny, 37 tomorrow AM.

42*(51%RH) at 7am.      45* at 9am.       48* at Noon.       53* at 3pm.       Reached 55* at 3:30pm.      50* at 4pm.      45* at 7pm.

[gravitylover]

20 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

 

Golf is awesome, I live between two courses lol

 

How is that possible, there's only one golf course in O'side? 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

How is that possible, there's only one golf course in O'side? 

No there's multiple golf courses in this area, yes there's only one in Oceanside, but there's another one next town over, in East Rockaway.

https://longislandgolf.com/bay park golf course.html

the one in Oceanside

https://www.thegolfclubatmiddlebay.com

another one lol (jk that's Oceanside, CA lol ;-)

https://playoceansidegolf.com

I'm halfway between the (first) two, it's a 15 min drive going from one to the other.

[wilsonvoid1]

hi guys i have a question, do i need my heat on tonight as some models are saying we go below freezing and i don't want my pipes freezing. i am in manhattan


.

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

hi guys i have a question, do i need my heat on tonight as some models are saying we go below freezing and i don't want my pipes freezing. i am in manhattan


.

How do you not have your heat on-- I keep it on until the temps are in the 80s.

 

[Brian5671]

35 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

hi guys i have a question, do i need my heat on tonight as some models are saying we go below freezing and i don't want my pipes freezing. i am in manhattan


.

[wilsonvoid1]

How do you not have your heat on-- I keep it on until the temps are in the 80s.
 

I have it on where the tenants are but places where the space is vacant I shut it off last time we had the freeze. still didn't answer my question are we going below freezing tonight?


.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

I have it on where the tenants are but places where the space is vacant I shut it off last time we had the freeze. still didn't answer my question are we going below freezing tonight?


.

Possibly, 31-32 so it'll be close.

I think NYC law states that the heat must be on when overnight temps are below 40 (set to 65 I think).

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 89 (1945)
NYC: 86 (1945)
LGA: 86 (1945)

 

Lows:

 

EWR: 23 (1959)
NYC: 10 (1923)
LGA: 25 (2022)

 

Historical:

1848: Niagara Falls eased to a trickle during the late afternoon and then became "silent" for 30 hours. Most people noticed the silence on the morning of the 30th. This is the only time in recorded history that both Falls stopped flowing. An ice jam at the neck of Lake Erie and the Niagara River entrance between Fort Erie, Ontario Canada, and Buffalo, NY, was caused by the wind, waves, and lake currents. People even ventured into the gorge, discovering relics like weapons from War of 1812.

 

1886 - Atlanta, GA, was drenched with a record 7.36 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The Weather Channel)

1920 - Clear Spring, MD, received 31 inches of snow in 24 hours to establish a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1921 - The temperature in Washington D.C. dropped from 82 degrees to 26 degrees thus ending an early spring. (David Ludlum)

1935 - A severe duststorm blanketed Amarillo, TX, for 84 hours. During one six hour period the visibility was near zero. (28th-31st) (The Weather Channel)

 

1942: A slow-moving low-pressure system brought 11.5 inches of snow to the nation's capital on March 29, 1942. It still stands as the highest March snowfall on record in Washington, D.C. on a single calendar day. Also, Baltimore, Maryland recorded an imposing total of 21.9 inches of snow on the same day. On the flip side, eight days later, the temperature in D.C. soared to 92 degrees on April 6, 1942, and it remains the highest temperature on record for April 6.
 

1945 - Providence, RI, hit 90 degrees to establish a March record for the New England area. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms spawned tornadoes in Mississippi, and produced high winds and heavy rain in Louisiana. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 92 mph at Houma LA, and caused a million dollars damage in Terrebonne Parish. Avondale LA was deluged with 4.52 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley spawned a tornado which injured two persons at Bunkie LA, and produced high winds which down a large tree onto a trailer at Bastrop LA claiming the life of one child and injuring another. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced torrential rains in northeastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas. Longview TX reported 14.16 inches of rain. More than eleven inches of rain at Henderson TX caused a dam to give way, and people left stranded in trees had to be rescued by boat. Total damage in northeastern Texas was estimated at 10 to 16 million dollars. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana. Thunderstorms spawned seven tornadoes, including one which injured seven persons at Gray LA. Thunderstorms also produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph at Port O'Conner TX, and produced up to six inches of rain in Beauregard Parish LA. (Storm Data)

2007 - Eighteen year old Corey Williams is killed by a lightning bolt in Carbondale, IL, at the Community High School's first home track meet of the season.

 

2007: If thunder is heard, one should go to a lightning safe area. A high school athlete was struck and killed by lightning at a track meet in Carbondale, Illinois. A bolt or 2 had been seen miles away, and a distant rumble of thunder was heard before the deadly strike.

2011 - A record 766 inches of snowfall at Boreal Ski Resort and nearly 59 feet at Squaw Valley in California's Sierra Nevadas are just two areas where snowfall records have been broke.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

New York City is continuing to move closer to completing its least snowy season on record.

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City is continuing to move closer to completing its least snowy season on record.

I think we can call it a fait accompli at this point. 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I think we can call it a fait accompli at this point. 

Over 30” or under 15” has become the new normal on Long Island since 2000. I have no idea how to do a seasonal snowfall forecast ahead of time with such volatility. 

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
2022-2023	5.0	186
2021-2022	37.0	0
2020-2021	33.5	0
2019-2020	6.8	0
2018-2019	12.8	0
2017-2018	65.9	0
2016-2017	39.3	0
2015-2016	41.4	0
2014-2015	63.7	0
2013-2014	63.7	0
2012-2013	46.9	0
2011-2012	4.7	0
2010-2011	55.3	0
2009-2010	53.8	0
2008-2009	36.2	0
2007-2008	10.7	0
2006-2007	9.0	0
2005-2006	36.0	1
2004-2005	58.8	0
2003-2004	41.4	0
2002-2003	54.6	0
2001-2002	3.7	1
2000-2001	38.9	1
1999-2000	9.0	0

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 89 (1945)
NYC: 86 (1945)
LGA: 86 (1945)

 

Lows:

 

EWR: 23 (1959)
NYC: 10 (1923)
LGA: 25 (2022)

 

Historical:

1848: Niagara Falls eased to a trickle during the late afternoon and then became "silent" for 30 hours. Most people noticed the silence on the morning of the 30th. This is the only time in recorded history that both Falls stopped flowing. An ice jam at the neck of Lake Erie and the Niagara River entrance between Fort Erie, Ontario Canada, and Buffalo, NY, was caused by the wind, waves, and lake currents. People even ventured into the gorge, discovering relics like weapons from War of 1812.

 

1886 - Atlanta, GA, was drenched with a record 7.36 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The Weather Channel)

1920 - Clear Spring, MD, received 31 inches of snow in 24 hours to establish a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1921 - The temperature in Washington D.C. dropped from 82 degrees to 26 degrees thus ending an early spring. (David Ludlum)

1935 - A severe duststorm blanketed Amarillo, TX, for 84 hours. During one six hour period the visibility was near zero. (28th-31st) (The Weather Channel)

 

1942: A slow-moving low-pressure system brought 11.5 inches of snow to the nation's capital on March 29, 1942. It still stands as the highest March snowfall on record in Washington, D.C. on a single calendar day. Also, Baltimore, Maryland recorded an imposing total of 21.9 inches of snow on the same day. On the flip side, eight days later, the temperature in D.C. soared to 92 degrees on April 6, 1942, and it remains the highest temperature on record for April 6.
 

1945 - Providence, RI, hit 90 degrees to establish a March record for the New England area. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms spawned tornadoes in Mississippi, and produced high winds and heavy rain in Louisiana. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 92 mph at Houma LA, and caused a million dollars damage in Terrebonne Parish. Avondale LA was deluged with 4.52 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley spawned a tornado which injured two persons at Bunkie LA, and produced high winds which down a large tree onto a trailer at Bastrop LA claiming the life of one child and injuring another. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced torrential rains in northeastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas. Longview TX reported 14.16 inches of rain. More than eleven inches of rain at Henderson TX caused a dam to give way, and people left stranded in trees had to be rescued by boat. Total damage in northeastern Texas was estimated at 10 to 16 million dollars. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana. Thunderstorms spawned seven tornadoes, including one which injured seven persons at Gray LA. Thunderstorms also produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph at Port O'Conner TX, and produced up to six inches of rain in Beauregard Parish LA. (Storm Data)

2007 - Eighteen year old Corey Williams is killed by a lightning bolt in Carbondale, IL, at the Community High School's first home track meet of the season.

 

2007: If thunder is heard, one should go to a lightning safe area. A high school athlete was struck and killed by lightning at a track meet in Carbondale, Illinois. A bolt or 2 had been seen miles away, and a distant rumble of thunder was heard before the deadly strike.

2011 - A record 766 inches of snowfall at Boreal Ski Resort and nearly 59 feet at Squaw Valley in California's Sierra Nevadas are just two areas where snowfall records have been broke.

 

 

You can even get a bolt ouf of the blue-- and get struck by lightning in a completely clear sky

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 89 (1945)
NYC: 86 (1945)
LGA: 86 (1945)

 

Lows:

 

EWR: 23 (1959)
NYC: 10 (1923)
LGA: 25 (2022)

 

Historical:

1848: Niagara Falls eased to a trickle during the late afternoon and then became "silent" for 30 hours. Most people noticed the silence on the morning of the 30th. This is the only time in recorded history that both Falls stopped flowing. An ice jam at the neck of Lake Erie and the Niagara River entrance between Fort Erie, Ontario Canada, and Buffalo, NY, was caused by the wind, waves, and lake currents. People even ventured into the gorge, discovering relics like weapons from War of 1812.

 

1886 - Atlanta, GA, was drenched with a record 7.36 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The Weather Channel)

1920 - Clear Spring, MD, received 31 inches of snow in 24 hours to establish a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1921 - The temperature in Washington D.C. dropped from 82 degrees to 26 degrees thus ending an early spring. (David Ludlum)

1935 - A severe duststorm blanketed Amarillo, TX, for 84 hours. During one six hour period the visibility was near zero. (28th-31st) (The Weather Channel)

 

1942: A slow-moving low-pressure system brought 11.5 inches of snow to the nation's capital on March 29, 1942. It still stands as the highest March snowfall on record in Washington, D.C. on a single calendar day. Also, Baltimore, Maryland recorded an imposing total of 21.9 inches of snow on the same day. On the flip side, eight days later, the temperature in D.C. soared to 92 degrees on April 6, 1942, and it remains the highest temperature on record for April 6.
 

1945 - Providence, RI, hit 90 degrees to establish a March record for the New England area. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms spawned tornadoes in Mississippi, and produced high winds and heavy rain in Louisiana. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 92 mph at Houma LA, and caused a million dollars damage in Terrebonne Parish. Avondale LA was deluged with 4.52 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley spawned a tornado which injured two persons at Bunkie LA, and produced high winds which down a large tree onto a trailer at Bastrop LA claiming the life of one child and injuring another. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced torrential rains in northeastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas. Longview TX reported 14.16 inches of rain. More than eleven inches of rain at Henderson TX caused a dam to give way, and people left stranded in trees had to be rescued by boat. Total damage in northeastern Texas was estimated at 10 to 16 million dollars. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana. Thunderstorms spawned seven tornadoes, including one which injured seven persons at Gray LA. Thunderstorms also produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph at Port O'Conner TX, and produced up to six inches of rain in Beauregard Parish LA. (Storm Data)

2007 - Eighteen year old Corey Williams is killed by a lightning bolt in Carbondale, IL, at the Community High School's first home track meet of the season.

 

2007: If thunder is heard, one should go to a lightning safe area. A high school athlete was struck and killed by lightning at a track meet in Carbondale, Illinois. A bolt or 2 had been seen miles away, and a distant rumble of thunder was heard before the deadly strike.

2011 - A record 766 inches of snowfall at Boreal Ski Resort and nearly 59 feet at Squaw Valley in California's Sierra Nevadas are just two areas where snowfall records have been broke.

 

 

1942: A slow-moving low-pressure system brought 11.5 inches of snow to the nation's capital on March 29, 1942. It still stands as the highest March snowfall on record in Washington, D.C. on a single calendar day. Also, Baltimore, Maryland recorded an imposing total of 21.9 inches of snow on the same day. On the flip side, eight days later, the temperature in D.C. soared to 92 degrees on April 6, 1942, and it remains the highest temperature on record for April 6.

 

wow how much did we get in this imposing storm?

 

[SACRUS]

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1942: A slow-moving low-pressure system brought 11.5 inches of snow to the nation's capital on March 29, 1942. It still stands as the highest March snowfall on record in Washington, D.C. on a single calendar day. Also, Baltimore, Maryland recorded an imposing total of 21.9 inches of snow on the same day. On the flip side, eight days later, the temperature in D.C. soared to 92 degrees on April 6, 1942, and it remains the highest temperature on record for April 6.

 

wow how much did we get in this imposing storm?

 

0.4 at NYC

https://www.facebook.com/NWSWPC/videos/palm-sunday-snowstorm-of-march-29-1942-and-subsequent-heat-wave/670750142991905/

 

March 29-30, 1942: The Palm Sunday Snowstorm dumped the state’s heaviest March snow on record in Maryland. The storm began as rain but changed over to a wet heavy snow. The snow stuck to power lines, trees and shrubs damaging them under its weight. Many of the fruit trees had begun to blossom. Over 20 inches fell over northern Anne Arundel, Howard, Southern and western Baltimore County, Carroll County, eastern and northern Frederick County, and north-central Washington County. Maximum amounts reported were 31 inches at Clear Springs (just 12 days earlier the temperature had reached 79�F here), 32 inches at Westminister, 30 to 36 inches at State Sanatorium (Frederick County) and 36 inches at Edgemont (Washington County). Baltimore City received its greatest snow in 20 years with 22 inches measured. Hagerstown and Westminister reported 22 inches in 24 hours. Frederick had 17 inches in 24 hours. Washington, DC received a total of 11.5 inches of snow.

[SRRTA22]

Maybe our first 80 degree readings around April 6th? 

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

0.4 at NYC

https://www.facebook.com/NWSWPC/videos/palm-sunday-snowstorm-of-march-29-1942-and-subsequent-heat-wave/670750142991905/

 

March 29-30, 1942: The Palm Sunday Snowstorm dumped the state’s heaviest March snow on record in Maryland. The storm began as rain but changed over to a wet heavy snow. The snow stuck to power lines, trees and shrubs damaging them under its weight. Many of the fruit trees had begun to blossom. Over 20 inches fell over northern Anne Arundel, Howard, Southern and western Baltimore County, Carroll County, eastern and northern Frederick County, and north-central Washington County. Maximum amounts reported were 31 inches at Clear Springs (just 12 days earlier the temperature had reached 79�F here), 32 inches at Westminister, 30 to 36 inches at State Sanatorium (Frederick County) and 36 inches at Edgemont (Washington County). Baltimore City received its greatest snow in 20 years with 22 inches measured. Hagerstown and Westminister reported 22 inches in 24 hours. Frederick had 17 inches in 24 hours. Washington, DC received a total of 11.5 inches of snow.

wow thats pitiful, rain changing to heavy snow in Baltimore and we only got 0.4?  Suppressed?

 

[donsutherland1]

Earlier today, the temperature fell to -13° in Bismarck. That surpassed the daily record of -7° from 1964 and was also Bismarck's coldest temperature so late in the season. The previous latest -13° temperature occurred on March 26, 1964 and 1996. Records go back to 1875. Record cold covered the Northern Plains. While most of that air will never reach the northeastern U.S., a small piece of the air mass will race eastward and graze the region.

Overnight, some showers of rain and possibly wet snow will affect the area as a strong cold front roars through the region. The frontal passage could bring some briefly heavy snow squalls across central and Upstate New York and central and northern New England. In its wake, tomorrow will be blustery and unseasonably cool despite a return to abundant sunshine. The cold will be short-lived. It will rapidly turn milder as the week comes to a close.

Saturday will likely start the month off on a much warmer than normal note as showers give way to some sunshine. Another cold front could bring showers and thundershowers to the region late in the day. There is some chance that there could be a squall line with strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms. Highs will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s in the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

Overall, the first week of April now appears to be in line to average warmer than normal. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will likely remain in western and central North America. Some of the guidance now brings the cooler air into the East for the second week of April, but considerable uncertainty exists.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now extremely likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -10.77 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.029 today.

On March 27 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.041 (RMM). The March 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.333 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.6° (1.8° above normal normal).

 

[gravitylover]

Boy they're getting whacked on the other end of the state right now. The mesonet station a quarter mile from my kid's apt in Brockport is down 25° since 5pm,they went from filtered sun to t-storms with heavy rain and 50mph wind to 20s with heavy snow and 20+ winds. Good stuff. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

That cold front means business. I wouldnt be shocked to see rain to snow even here in the city,not to mention the winds associated with the frontal passage itself. Could be a wild couple of hours later on tonight. The last gasp of old man winter!!

[donsutherland1]

Latest NBM and MOS forecasts for NYC's low temperature tomorrow morning:

Often following the passage of strong cold fronts, the MOS does somewhat better than the NBM.

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

That cold front means business. I wouldnt be shocked to see rain to snow even here in the city,not to mention the winds associated with the frontal passage itself. Could be a wild couple of hours later on tonight. The last gasp of old man winter!!

I am currently seeing snow falling along I80 (heavy in places) for many miles to the north and west of State College.  If you are up there in elevation across NE PA, NW NJ, and in places especially from Orange Cty north and west I think you have a real shot to wake up to some snow on the ground (HRRR is on board).  This Arctic front certainly does mean business.

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

I am currently seeing snow falling along I80 (heavy in places) for many miles to the north and west of State College.  If you are up there in elevation across NE PA, NW NJ, and in places especially from Orange Cty north and west I think you have a real shot to wake up to some snow on the ground (HRRR is on board).  This Arctic front certainly does mean business.

Heavy snow showers/ squalls currently moving across northern and northeastern PA and into the western Catskills.

[psv88]

Upper 80s here in Sarasota. Beautiful 

[gravitylover]

It's snowing now Is this the last flakes of the season... ? 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

6 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

Maybe our first 80 degree readings around April 6th? 

Not impossible. Will depend on cloudcover and how southerly vs. westerly the winds.

WX/PT

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Heavy snow showers/ squalls currently moving across northern and northeastern PA and into the western Catskills.

might be the last snow for the season in the Poconos too!

[sussexcountyobs]

Woke up to 3/4" of snow on everything but paved surfaces. 23°

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny, blustery and unseasonably cold. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 46°

Newark: 49°

Philadelphia: 48°

Tomorrow will turn milder but showers will likely arrive. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 54.9°; 15-Year: 55.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 55.8°; 15-Year: 56.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.0°; 15-Year: 58.7°

[MJO812]

31 degrees here