March 2023

[HailMan06]

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

.RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR NORTHWESTERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Red Flag Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday.

* AFFECTED AREA...Sussex, Warren, Morris, Hunterdon, Somerset,

  Middlesex, Western Monmouth, Eastern Monmouth, Mercer, Salem,

  Gloucester, Camden, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean,

  Cumberland, Atlantic, Cape May, Atlantic Coastal Cape May,

  Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean and Southeastern Burlington.

* TIMING...Late morning through early evening Sunday.

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...25 to 30 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...In the mid 30s to low 40s.

Welcome to brushfire season.

[TriPol]

17 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 80 (2011)
NYC: 77 (2011)
LGA: 75 (2011)


Lows:

EWR: 10 (1981)
NYC: 7 (1916)
LGA: 13 (1967)

 

Historical:

1925 - The great Tri-State Tornado occurred, the most deadly tornado in U.S. history. The tornado claimed 695 lives (including 234 at Murphysboro IL and 148 at West Frankfort IL), and caused seventeen million dollars property damage. It cut a swath of destruction 219 miles long and as much as a mile wide from east central Missouri to southern Indiana between 1 PM and 4 PM. The tornado leveled a school in West Frankfort IL, and picked up sixteen students setting them down unharmed 150 yards away. Seven other tornadoes claimed an additional 97 lives that day. (David Ludlum)

1971 - High winds accompanied a low pressure system from the Rocky Mountains to the Great Lakes. Winds gusted to 100 mph at Hastings NE, and reached 115 mph at Hays KS. High winds caused two million dollars damage in Kansas. Fire burned 50,000 forest acres in eastern Oklahoma. (17th-19th) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A storm in the central U.S. produced up to 10 inches of snow in western Nebraska, and up to six inches of rain in eastern sections of the state. The heavy rains pushed the Elkhorn River out of its banks, submerging the streets of Inman under three feet of water. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Light rain and snow prevailed east of the Mississippi River. Fair weather prevailed west of the Mississippi. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A storm in the western U.S. produced heavy rain in California, with heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada Range. Venado CA was drenched with 5.40 inches of rain in 24 hours. A dozen cities in the eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date, including Baltimore MD with a reading of 82 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Heavy rain caused extensive flooding of rivers and streams in Georgia, with total damage running well into the millions. Flooding also claimed six lives. Nearly seven inches of rain caused 2.5 million dollars damage around Columbus, and up to nine inches of rain was reported over the northern Kinchafoonee Basin in Georgia. (Storm Data)

 

2013:  An area of low pressure moving across the region brought widespread accumulating snowfall along with powerful northwest winds to northeast South Dakota. Snowfall amounts from 1 to 4 inches along with sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to near 60 mph caused widespread blizzard conditions. Travel was disrupted or halted. Some businesses and schools were also closed. Some snowfall amounts included; 1 inch at Sisseton; 2 inches south of Bristol and at Bowdle; 3 inches near Big Stone City; and 4 inches at Summit. The highest wind gust was 58 mph at Aberdeen and near Summit. The snowfall began between 5 and 7 pm on the 17th and ended between 5 and 9 pm on the 18th.

Wasn't the 1925 Tri-State tornado just a tornado family instead of being one single tornado?

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     48degs.(39/58) or +2.5.

Month to date is    42.6[+1.7].       Should be    44.3[+2.0] by the 27th.

Reached 55 here yesterday.

Today:  40-43, wind w.-breezy, m.sunny, 34 tomorrow AM.

BN starting the 27th?

30*(41%RH) here at 7am{was 43 at midnight}     Still 30* at 10am.     33* at Noon.      35* at 2pm.    Reached 40* at 5:30pm.

36* at 8pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny, windy and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will reach the lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 41°

Newark: 44°

Philadelphia: 44°

Milder air will return tomorrow and remain in place through the remainder of the week. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 50.7°; 15-Year: 51.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 51.7°; 15-Year: 52.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.7°; 15-Year: 54.3

[bluewave]

Great west based block but the La Niña-like strong -PNA allowed allowed it to link up with the SE Ridge.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 77 (2012)
NYC: 76 (1918)
LGA: 72 (2012)

Lows:

EWR: 9 (1967)
NYC: 8 (1967)
LGA: 10 (1967)

 

Historical:

1907: The highest March temperature in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, was set when the temperature soared to 97 degrees. Dodge City, Kansas, also set a March record with 98 degrees. Denver, Colorado, set a daily record high of 81 degrees.

1935 - Suffocating dust storms occurred frequently in southeastern Colorado between the 12th and the 25th of the month. Six people died, and many livestock starved or suffocated. Up to six feet of dust covered the ground. Schools were closed, and many rural homes were deserted by tenants. (The Weather Channel)

1948: An estimated F4 tornado moved through Fosterburg, Bunker Hill, and Gillespie, Illinois, killing 33 people and injuring 449 others. 2,000 buildings in Bunker Hill were damaged or destroyed. The total damage was $3.6 million.

1950 - Timberline Lodge reported 246 inches of snow on the ground, a record for the state of Oregon. (The Weather Channel)

1956 - The second heavy snowstorm in just three days hit Boston. Nearby Blue Hill received 19.5 inches contributing to their snowiest March of record. (David Ludlum)

1968:During a severe weather event, hail up to 1.75 inches in diameter fell 2 miles south of Brookings. Also, hail 1.00 inch in diameter fell 3 miles northeast of Sioux Falls.

 

1987 - A storm in the western U.S. produced rain and snow from the northern and central Pacific coast to the northern and central Rockies. Heavier snowfall totals included 13 inches at Clear Creek UT, 12 inches at Snow Camp CA and Glacier Park MT, and 10 inches at Kayenta AZ. Wind gusts reached 54 mph at Winslow AZ. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Seven cities in California and Nevada reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 80s and lower 90s. Los Angeles CA reported a record high of 89 degrees. Five cities in south central Texas reported record lows, including El Paso, with a reading of 22 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Six cities reported new record low temperatures for the date as cold arctic air settled into the Upper Midwest for Palm Sunday, including Marquette MI with a reading of 11 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Rather wintry weather in the eastern U.S. replaced the 80 degree weather of the previous week. Freezing temperatures were reported in northern sections of the Gulf Coast States, and snow began to whiten the Northern and Central Appalachians. Up to eight inches of snow was reported in western Virginia. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2003 - Denver digs out from the second-biggest snowstorm in the city's history. Almost two and a half feet of wet snow over 36 hours shuts down the city. The month ends as Denver's snowiest March on record.

2003: One of the worst blizzards since records began in 1872, struck the Denver metro area and Colorado's Front Range started with a vengeance. Denver International Airport was closed, stranding about 4,000 travelers. The weight of the snow caused a 40-foot gash in a portion of the roof, forcing the evacuation of that section of the main terminal building. Winds gusting to 40 mph produced drifts six feet high in places around the city. Snowfall in foothills was even more impressive. The heavy wet snow caused numerous roofs of homes and businesses to collapse. The estimated cost of property damage alone, not including large commercial buildings, was $93 million, making it the most costly snowstorm on record for the area. In Denver alone, at least 258 structures were damaged. Up to 135,000 people lost power during the storm, and it took several days for power to be restored. Mayor Wellington Webb of Denver said, "This is the storm of the century, a backbreaker, a record-breaker, a roof breaker." Avalanches in the mountains and foothills closed many roads, including Interstate 70, stranding hundreds of skiers and travelers. The Eldora Ski area 270 skiers were stranded when an avalanche closed the main access road. After the storm, a military helicopter had to deliver food to the resort until the road could be cleared. Two people died in Aurora from heart attacks after shoveling the heavy wet snow. The National Guard sent 40 soldiers and 20 heavy-duty vehicles to rescue stranded travelers along a section of I-70. The storm made March 2003 the snowiest March on record, the fourth snowiest month on record, and the fifth wettest March on record. The total of 22.9 inches is the most significant 24-hour total in March. The storm also broke 19 consecutive months of below-average precipitation for Denver.  The 31.8 inches of snow was recorded at the former Stapleton Airport in Denver for its second-greatest snowstorm on record (the greatest was 37.5 inches on 12/4-12/5/1913) with up to three feet in other areas in and around the city and more than seven feet in the foothills. Higher amounts included: Fritz Peak: 87.5 inches, Rollinsville: 87.5 inches, Canin Creek: 83 inches, Near Bergen Park: 74 inches, Northwest of Evergreen: 73 inches, Cola Creek Canyon: 72 inches, Georgetown: 70 inches, Jamestown: 63 inches, Near Blackhawk: 60 inches, Eldora Ski Area: 55 inches, Ken Caryl Ranch: 46.6 inches, Aurora: 40 inches, Centennial: 38 inches, Buckley AFB: 37 inches, Southwest Denver: 35 inches, Louisville: 34 inches, Arvada: 32 inches, Broomfield: 31 inches, Westminster: 31 inches and Boulder: 22.5 inches. This storm was the result of a very moist intense slow-moving Pacific system that tracked across the four corners and into southeastern Colorado, which allowed a deep easterly upslope to form among the front-range.

 

2006: Heavy snow of 7 to as much as 20 inches fell on the afternoon of the 18th until around noon on the 20th. The South Dakota Department of Public Safety issued a travel advisory for any travel but especially for the State Basketball Tournament travelers. Interstate-90 was closed on Sunday into Monday morning, with many people stranded. Many cars and trucks were stuck on the roads. Many schools and meetings were postponed or canceled. Snowfall amounts included 8 inches at Blunt, Onida, and Lake Sharpe, 9 inches at Mission Ridge, 10 inches at Pierre, 11 inches at Fort Pierre and near Stephan, 12 inches at Eagle Butte, 14 inches northwest of Presho, 16 inches at Murdo, and 20 inches near Iona.

[bluewave]

Recent 5 year snowfall less than half the previous 5 year totals. NYC dropped from 42.8” to 16.3”. Islip was even more dramatic dropping from 54.8” to 19.0”. 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0.0	1.3	2.6	4.2	6.6	2.2	T	16.8
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	M	2.3
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8
2018-2019	0.0	6.4	T	1.1	2.6	10.4	0.0	20.5

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0.0	0.0	4.1	16.7	12.2	8.2	1.1	42.3
2017-2018	0.0	T	7.7	11.2	4.9	11.6	5.5	40.9
2016-2017	0.0	T	3.2	7.9	9.4	9.7	0.0	30.2
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	27.9	4.0	0.9	T	32.8
2014-2015	0.0	0.2	1.0	16.9	13.6	18.6	0.0	50.3
2013-2014	0.0	T	8.6	19.7	29.0	0.1	T	57.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	T	0.9	2.5	7.3	6.9	1.5	T	19.0
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	0.4	T	3.0	1.6	M	5.0
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.3	31.8	3.3	1.6	0.0	37.0
2020-2021	T	0.0	7.5	1.1	24.9	T	T	33.5
2019-2020	0.0	0.1	4.2	2.5	0.0	T	T	6.8
2018-2019	0.0	4.3	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	T	12.8

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	T	0.1	3.5	23.2	13.4	13.5	1.0	54.8
2017-2018	0.0	T	6.0	22.0	1.4	31.9	4.6	65.9
2016-2017	T	T	3.2	14.0	14.7	7.4	T	39.3
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	24.8	13.2	3.2	0.2	41.4
2014-2015	0.0	T	0.4	30.2	13.4	19.7	0.0	63.7
2013-2014	0.0	0.3	8.1	25.2	24.5	5.4	0.2	63.7

 

[LibertyBell]

22 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Quebec City which has the same climo would be way better.

or Halifax which gets a ton of coastal storms.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 77 (2012)
NYC: 76 (1918)
LGA: 72 (2012)

Lows:

EWR: 9 (1967)
NYC: 8 (1967)
LGA: 10 (1967)

 

Historical:

1907: The highest March temperature in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, was set when the temperature soared to 97 degrees. Dodge City, Kansas, also set a March record with 98 degrees. Denver, Colorado, set a daily record high of 81 degrees.

1935 - Suffocating dust storms occurred frequently in southeastern Colorado between the 12th and the 25th of the month. Six people died, and many livestock starved or suffocated. Up to six feet of dust covered the ground. Schools were closed, and many rural homes were deserted by tenants. (The Weather Channel)

1948: An estimated F4 tornado moved through Fosterburg, Bunker Hill, and Gillespie, Illinois, killing 33 people and injuring 449 others. 2,000 buildings in Bunker Hill were damaged or destroyed. The total damage was $3.6 million.

1950 - Timberline Lodge reported 246 inches of snow on the ground, a record for the state of Oregon. (The Weather Channel)

1956 - The second heavy snowstorm in just three days hit Boston. Nearby Blue Hill received 19.5 inches contributing to their snowiest March of record. (David Ludlum)

1968:During a severe weather event, hail up to 1.75 inches in diameter fell 2 miles south of Brookings. Also, hail 1.00 inch in diameter fell 3 miles northeast of Sioux Falls.

 

1987 - A storm in the western U.S. produced rain and snow from the northern and central Pacific coast to the northern and central Rockies. Heavier snowfall totals included 13 inches at Clear Creek UT, 12 inches at Snow Camp CA and Glacier Park MT, and 10 inches at Kayenta AZ. Wind gusts reached 54 mph at Winslow AZ. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Seven cities in California and Nevada reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 80s and lower 90s. Los Angeles CA reported a record high of 89 degrees. Five cities in south central Texas reported record lows, including El Paso, with a reading of 22 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Six cities reported new record low temperatures for the date as cold arctic air settled into the Upper Midwest for Palm Sunday, including Marquette MI with a reading of 11 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Rather wintry weather in the eastern U.S. replaced the 80 degree weather of the previous week. Freezing temperatures were reported in northern sections of the Gulf Coast States, and snow began to whiten the Northern and Central Appalachians. Up to eight inches of snow was reported in western Virginia. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2003 - Denver digs out from the second-biggest snowstorm in the city's history. Almost two and a half feet of wet snow over 36 hours shuts down the city. The month ends as Denver's snowiest March on record.

2003: One of the worst blizzards since records began in 1872, struck the Denver metro area and Colorado's Front Range started with a vengeance. Denver International Airport was closed, stranding about 4,000 travelers. The weight of the snow caused a 40-foot gash in a portion of the roof, forcing the evacuation of that section of the main terminal building. Winds gusting to 40 mph produced drifts six feet high in places around the city. Snowfall in foothills was even more impressive. The heavy wet snow caused numerous roofs of homes and businesses to collapse. The estimated cost of property damage alone, not including large commercial buildings, was $93 million, making it the most costly snowstorm on record for the area. In Denver alone, at least 258 structures were damaged. Up to 135,000 people lost power during the storm, and it took several days for power to be restored. Mayor Wellington Webb of Denver said, "This is the storm of the century, a backbreaker, a record-breaker, a roof breaker." Avalanches in the mountains and foothills closed many roads, including Interstate 70, stranding hundreds of skiers and travelers. The Eldora Ski area 270 skiers were stranded when an avalanche closed the main access road. After the storm, a military helicopter had to deliver food to the resort until the road could be cleared. Two people died in Aurora from heart attacks after shoveling the heavy wet snow. The National Guard sent 40 soldiers and 20 heavy-duty vehicles to rescue stranded travelers along a section of I-70. The storm made March 2003 the snowiest March on record, the fourth snowiest month on record, and the fifth wettest March on record. The total of 22.9 inches is the most significant 24-hour total in March. The storm also broke 19 consecutive months of below-average precipitation for Denver.  The 31.8 inches of snow was recorded at the former Stapleton Airport in Denver for its second-greatest snowstorm on record (the greatest was 37.5 inches on 12/4-12/5/1913) with up to three feet in other areas in and around the city and more than seven feet in the foothills. Higher amounts included: Fritz Peak: 87.5 inches, Rollinsville: 87.5 inches, Canin Creek: 83 inches, Near Bergen Park: 74 inches, Northwest of Evergreen: 73 inches, Cola Creek Canyon: 72 inches, Georgetown: 70 inches, Jamestown: 63 inches, Near Blackhawk: 60 inches, Eldora Ski Area: 55 inches, Ken Caryl Ranch: 46.6 inches, Aurora: 40 inches, Centennial: 38 inches, Buckley AFB: 37 inches, Southwest Denver: 35 inches, Louisville: 34 inches, Arvada: 32 inches, Broomfield: 31 inches, Westminster: 31 inches and Boulder: 22.5 inches. This storm was the result of a very moist intense slow-moving Pacific system that tracked across the four corners and into southeastern Colorado, which allowed a deep easterly upslope to form among the front-range.

 

2006: Heavy snow of 7 to as much as 20 inches fell on the afternoon of the 18th until around noon on the 20th. The South Dakota Department of Public Safety issued a travel advisory for any travel but especially for the State Basketball Tournament travelers. Interstate-90 was closed on Sunday into Monday morning, with many people stranded. Many cars and trucks were stuck on the roads. Many schools and meetings were postponed or canceled. Snowfall amounts included 8 inches at Blunt, Onida, and Lake Sharpe, 9 inches at Mission Ridge, 10 inches at Pierre, 11 inches at Fort Pierre and near Stephan, 12 inches at Eagle Butte, 14 inches northwest of Presho, 16 inches at Murdo, and 20 inches near Iona.

wow big differences between 2012 and 1967!

Tony, was this the latest single digit temp ever recorded in NYC (in 1967)?  Did JFK record temps in the single digits too? It came just after an HECS that topped off an amazing winter!

 

1990 - Rather wintry weather in the eastern U.S. replaced the 80 degree weather of the previous week. Freezing temperatures were reported in northern sections of the Gulf Coast States, and snow began to whiten the Northern and Central Appalachians. Up to eight inches of snow was reported in western Virginia. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

I remember this, we went from mid 80s in the middle of March to eventually getting a 1-2 inch snow event in early April

[bluewave]

Nino 1+2 is the warmest since the 15-16 super El Niño. 
 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Nino 1+2 is the warmest since the 15-16 super El Niño. 
 

 

I wonder if this means a cooler summer, or a summer more along the lines of 2002?

 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if this means a cooler summer, or a summer more along the lines of 2002?

 

Hard to say but the SST anomalies off of Peru are very impressive. It’s been a while since the EPAC was warmer than the WPAC near the equator.

 

 

[SACRUS]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow big differences between 2012 and 1967!

Tony, was this the latest single digit temp ever recorded in NYC (in 1967)?  Did JFK record temps in the single digits too? It came just after an HECS that topped off an amazing winter!

 

1990 - Rather wintry weather in the eastern U.S. replaced the 80 degree weather of the previous week. Freezing temperatures were reported in northern sections of the Gulf Coast States, and snow began to whiten the Northern and Central Appalachians. Up to eight inches of snow was reported in western Virginia. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

I remember this, we went from mid 80s in the middle of March to eventually getting a 1-2 inch snow event in early April

JFK was 

Mar 18: 9 (1967)
Mar 19: 7 (1967)

NYC record low Mar 19: 8 was lowest at that point in March.  I dont see any other single digits beyond March 19.  1923 came clsoe at 10 on march 29th.  I do see JFK at 4 on March 26 (1960) im not sure if this is incorrect. will check
 

[SnoSki14]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hard to say but the SST anomalies off of Peru are very impressive. It’s been a while since the EPAC was warmer than the WPAC near the equator.

 

 

It wouldn't surprise me if next winter is the total opposite of this one. 

Going from one extreme to the next has been very common. 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

JFK was 

Mar 18: 9 (1967)
Mar 19: 7 (1967)

NYC record low Mar 19: 8 was lowest at that point in March.  I dont see any other single digits beyond March 19.  1923 came clsoe at 10 on march 29th.  I do see JFK at 4 on March 26 (1960) im not sure if this is incorrect. will check
 

wow that's amazing if JFK was that close to 0 at the end of March lol...I dont think they even reached the teens in April did they-- I think they just missed during the 1982 April blizzard?

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It wouldn't surprise me if next winter is the total opposite of this one. 

Going from one extreme to the next has been very common. 

Hard to say since we haven’t had an east based El Niño since the late 90s. While it’s still too early to know, the Euro had an east based early signal. But we are still in the spring forecast barrier period. So things can still change. 
 

 

[donsutherland1]

Through March 18th, 2023 is off the the warmest start on record for New York City. Four of the top five cases and seven of the top ten cases have occurred since 2000. All ten have occurred since 1990. New York City has had a mature urban footprint since the 1950s. Records go back to 1869.

 

[SACRUS]

38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow that's amazing if JFK was that close to 0 at the end of March lol...I dont think they even reached the teens in April did they-- I think they just missed during the 1982 April blizzard?

Thats right just missed the teens at JFK they reached record lows in 1982 of 20 both April 6th/7th.

[SACRUS]

 A brisk 34 off a low of 26 here.

Sunshine with some clouds now

 

 

[bluewave]

At least NYC wasn’t alone this winter.

 

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Nino 1+2 is the warmest since the 15-16 super El Niño. 
 
 

It’s actually rivaling 97-98. This is very clearly an east-based El Niño developing right now, something we haven’t seen in over 20 years (97-98), pretty much every event since then has been a Modoki. Region 1+2 is on fire and region 3 is warming at an extremely rapid pace. Does this continue into the summer? Who knows but this is quite the event taking shape as of now

[MJO812]

32 here

[SnoSki14]

ENSO warming usually starts east and spreads west so just because we're seeing major east based warming doesn't mean it'll be an east based event. 

Any comparisons to 97/98 is extremely premature at this stage 

[Dark Star]

12 hours ago, HailMan06 said:

Welcome to brushfire season.

Keep an eye out for arsonists...

[Rtd208]

I could care less about snow at this point but the 12z GFS was certainly keeping things active and plenty wet moving forward for areas that don't see anymore frozen precipitation. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s actually rivaling 97-98. This is very clearly an east-based El Niño developing right now, something we haven’t seen in over 20 years (97-98), pretty much every event since then has been a Modoki. Region 1+2 is on fire and region 3 is warming at an extremely rapid pace. Does this continue into the summer? Who knows but this is quite the event taking shape as of now

The record MJO driving the warming was a little stronger than 1997 and 2015 super El Niño’s in the early development. The subsurface points to more east based at least to start. But who who knows what things will look like down the road.

 

[snowman19]

The record MJO driving the warming was a little stronger than 1997 and 2015 super El Niño’s in the early development. The subsurface points to more east based at least to start. But who who knows what things will look like down the road. 

 

It’s really astonishing that we have gone over 25 years without an east-based El Niño

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s really astonishing that we have gone over 25 years without an east-based El Niño

Yeah, everything has been Modoki since then.

The ultimate strength will come down to how much follow up WWB action we get. 15-16 had the follow through after the early spring activity. But the WWBs weakened in 14-15 after a strong start. So the spring forecast barrier makes location of and strength of the strongest SST anomalies tough.

The only certainty is that this one is starting out east bast. Where it will end up is hard to know this early.

[donsutherland1]

Despite abundant sunshine, today was an unseasonably cool day. Like so often since December, the cold shot will be fleeting.

Temperatures will rebound into the 50s tomorrow. Afterward, much the week will feature readings in the 50s and even 60s. Overall, it now appears likely that March will wind up warmer than normal.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now very likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.76°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -7.66 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.087 today.

On March 17 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.594 (RMM). The March 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.770 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.9° (1.1° above normal normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

March temperatures have been running warmer than normal in the Northeast through March 18th: