March 2023

[Allsnow]

22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You're not going to get a good winter when the west is seeing record setting snows in a Nina. 

The NAO is always a secondary factor by a lot. The Pacific is king. 

This….

[Nibor]

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

NYC is the worst place to live in NY.

If only we got ocean effect snow here

A snow weenie complaining that he doesn't get enough snow in the place that he lives which happens to be the greatest city in the world is the definition of a first world problem.

[JustinRP37]

Today was absolutely a top five east coast ski days of my life! Went back to catamount and the snow was insane. Base had about 18 inches and up at the top 24-28. If you are sad in NYC seriously just drive up to the Berkshires. It is a true winter wonderland. Even the Hudson Valley was slammed. This weekend is setting up to be a great one up north and in the Catskills. It may have been a horrible winter in the city and immediate metro but close by this March has been a miracle so far. 

[donsutherland1]

Overnight, the blustery wind will diminish. Tomorrow, much milder air will overspread the region. Temperatures will likely reach the 50s in much of the region through Saturday. Cooler air will likely return to close the weekend.

No potential snowstorms appear likely through at least the next week. Instead, New York City is now on a path that could end with its setting a new low seasonal snowfall record.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 10, New York City is at growing risk of seeing winter 2022-2023 finish with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 82% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 10 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. All such winters wound up with less than 20" of seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.76°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -9.57 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.470 today.

On March 13 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.957 (RMM). The March 12-adjusted amplitude was 4.161 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.5° (0.3° below normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Next winter is ours I feel it 

I sure hope so. A weak or moderate El Niño would probably give us our best shot at a snowy outcome, as long as there is Atlantic and Pacific blocking. We'll have to watch the Atlantic SSTAs, as any marine heatwave could complicate the picture.

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Today was absolutely a top five east coast ski days of my life! Went back to catamount and the snow was insane. Base had about 18 inches and up at the top 24-28. If you are sad in NYC seriously just drive up to the Berkshires. It is a true winter wonderland. Even the Hudson Valley was slammed. This weekend is setting up to be a great one up north and in the Catskills. It may have been a horrible winter in the city and immediate metro but close by this March has been a miracle so far. 

At least the record MJO 8 delivered for somebody.

 

 

[JustinRP37]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least the record MJO 8 delivered for somebody.

 

 

I’ll take whatever I can.  Even if I have to drive! But seriously this was amazing today. 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Nibor said:

A snow weenie complaining that he doesn't get enough snow in the place that he lives which happens to be the greatest city in the world is the definition of a first world problem.

London and Paris would like to have a word...

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I’ll take whatever I can.  Even if I have to drive! But seriously this was amazing today. 

Spring break? Daughter is in Costa Rica at the eco station. 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I’ll take whatever I can.  Even if I have to drive! But seriously this was amazing today. 

It was a memorable event for the jackpot zones. One heck of a gradient. So at least the colder zones are still getting the heavy totals which were more common in years past.

 

 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

A weak to moderate El Niño is what we want.
 

A strong El Niño gives us late 90s. Correct me if I’m wrong 

The late 90s also had a strong La Niña after the record Nino. Either very strong ENSO signal is usually bad for us. 

[lee59]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was a memorable event for the jackpot zones. One heck of a gradient. So at least the colder zones are still getting the heavy totals which were more common in years past.

 

 

That is incredible. I know Kingston which is about 10 miles south of Saugerties and I believe about the same elevation had about 4-7 inches of snow. Not sure of the actual amount, just going by a picture I saw in the Kingston Freeman newspaper.

[lee59]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was a memorable event for the jackpot zones. One heck of a gradient. So at least the colder zones are still getting the heavy totals which were more common in years past.

 

 

I wonder if a place in the city like the Empire State observation deck has received inches of snow while the street got nothing.

[Uniblab]

34 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I wonder if a place in the city like the Empire State observation deck has received inches of snow while the street got nothing.

Many times I've worked in skyscrapers in NYC and seen accumulating snow on the roofs and rain while exiting on the street

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Spring break? Daughter is in Costa Rica at the eco station. 

Yup spring break. But odd because it is over before spring even begins. I am happy though because spring is my least favorite season once the ski areas close up shop for the year. 

[lee59]

22 minutes ago, Uniblab said:

Many times I've worked in skyscrapers in NYC and seen accumulating snow on the roofs and rain while exiting on the street

OK, only makes sense. This past storm was one of the best examples how elevation can make all the difference.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and milder. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 56°

Newark: 58°

Philadelphia: 59°

Tomorrow will be another mild day. Some showers are possible. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 49.7°; 15-Year: 50.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 50.7°; 15-Year: 51.6

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 52.6°; 15-Year: 53.2°

[weatherpruf]

10 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Yup spring break. But odd because it is over before spring even begins. I am happy though because spring is my least favorite season once the ski areas close up shop for the year. 

Don't ski. I do hike in the snow though and enjoy it, as long as it isn't the deep stuff. Looking forward to fishing season now. Tried watching the USA-Colombia baseball game as wife is Colombian and found out 2 things; if it isn't soccer Colombians aren't interested, and 2, I don't blame them. Fell asleep at 3-2 in the 7th and that was the final score. In other words, I don't look forward to baseball season like many seem to here.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    46degs.(38/55) or +2.5.

Month to date is      41.3[=0.8].         Should be     42.9[+1.4] by the 24th.

Reached 47 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:   54-56, wind w., m. sunny, 44 tomorrow AM.

First T Breakout   March 25 at 75*?

35*(44%RH) here at 7am.     36* at 8am.      38* at 9am.      40* at 10am.       45* at Noon.       50* at 2:30pm.       51* at 3pm.      53* at 4pm.       57* at 4:30pm.       58* at 5pm.       59* at 5:30pm.      58* at 7pm.

[brooklynwx99]

14 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The late 90s also had a strong La Niña after the record Nino. Either very strong ENSO signal is usually bad for us. 

hey, the 2016 super Nino was a torch but had our biggest storm ever, so I'll take that any day

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 82 (1990)
LGA: 77 (1990)
NYC: 82 (1990)
 

 

Lows:

LGA: 19 (1992)
EWR: 17 (1992)
NYC: 13 (1911)

 

Historical:

 

1942 - Two tornadoes, 24 minutes apart, struck Baldwin, MS, resulting in 65 deaths. (David Ludlum)

1975 - A single storm brought 119 inches of snow to Crater Lake, O,R establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1986 - A small but rare tornado touched down perilously close to Disneyland in Anaheim CA. (Storm Data)

1987 - Softball size hail caused millions of dollars damage to automobiles at Del Rio TX. Three persons were injured when hailstones crashed through a shopping mall skylight. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

1988 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in the Central Rockies. Winds gusted to 80 mph at Centerville UT. Eighteen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date, including Tallahassee FL with a reading of 24 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A winter storm brought heavy snow and high winds to the southwestern U.S. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Lovelock NV, Salt Lake City UT, and Fort Carson CO. Snow fell at a rate of three inches per hour in the Lake Tahoe area of Nevada. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced large hail and damaging winds from northwest Florida to western South Carolina. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 75 mph at Floridatown FL. Sixteen cities across the northeastern quarter of the nation reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 78 degrees at Burlington VT smashed their previous record for the date by 23 degrees. New York City reported a record high of 82 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

[winterwx21]

After the cool shot for sunday (highs in the low 40s) the weather pattern for late March looks pretty good. No major warmth coming, but lots of days with high temps well up in the 50s. Not bad for late March. Looks as if next week will be a good time to start Spring planting. Looking forward to it. 

[MANDA]

Thought the Drought Monitor was interesting.  The "abnormally dry" conditions across parts of SNJ and L.I. have been lingering since Summer, through Fall and Winter.  Kind of unusual.  Weather looks pleasant but boring as all get out for at least the next week.  No notable rain to wash away the excessive road salt they have been dumping over recent years.  Was like driving in a dust cloud on parts of Rt. 80 yesterday.

[MJO812]

Boring times ahead

 

Winter is over

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Boring times ahead

 

Winter is over

It started? It’s been pretty boring since February 2022 (referring to NYC and coast). 

[snowman19]

Boring times ahead
 
Winter is over

It’s been bad since 2/22. I’ve had 2 plowable storms since then (3/12/22 and 2/27-28/23). Record stretch of basically snowless up here

[brooklynwx99]

19 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

You're not going to get a good winter when the west is seeing record setting snows in a Nina. 

The NAO is always a secondary factor by a lot. The Pacific is king. 

if you want to see a MECS or HECS, you need a -NAO. that is a fact

winters like 2013-14 and 2014-15 were amazing, but they didn't have any true big dogs. very cold and active, though! but the lack of blocking directly led to the Juno heartbreak

2015-16 was a prime example. warm as hell, but there was a canonical retrograding -NAO and the rest is history. biggest storm on record

[brooklynwx99]

that's why I hate when people say that Pacific blocking is definitively better than Atlantic blocking. they lead to different patterns and storm types

the composites for NYC's 3-6 and 6-12 inch storms are dominated by Pacific blocking

NYC's 12-18 and 18+ inch storms are dominated by Atlantic blocking

this is not a coincidence. if you want to get nickel, dimed, and maybe get a quarter or two thrown in there, root for a +PNA/-EPO. but if you want to get the big dogs, you need a west-based -NAO. simple as that

[snowman19]

if you want to see a MECS or HECS, you need a -NAO. that is a fact
winters like 2013-14 and 2014-15 were amazing, but they didn't have any true big dogs. very cold and active, though! but the lack of blocking directly led to the Juno heartbreak
2015-16 was a prime example. warm as hell, but there was a canonical retrograding -NAO and the rest is history

The thing that helped 15-16 was the fact that even though it was a super El Niño, it wasn’t severely east-based like 97-98. The 97-98 Nino actually had a secondary area of forcing in ENSO 1+2 where the SSTs were on fire and it displaced the Aleutian low way east over AK (++EPO). The EPO floodgates were wide open and there was nothing but Pacific maritime air and no cold/arctic to be had in Canada or the CONUS. 97-98 actually had a -NAO/-AO but the PAC side was so horrific it completely overwhelmed and it didn’t matter

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Thought the Drought Monitor was interesting.  The "abnormally dry" conditions across parts of SNJ and L.I. have been lingering since Summer, through Fall and Winter.  Kind of unusual.  Weather looks pleasant but boring as all get out for at least the next week.  No notable rain to wash away the excessive road salt they have been dumping over recent years.  Was like driving in a dust cloud on parts of Rt. 80 yesterday.

All the rain here from early in the week should do away with any abnormally dry here. The cutoff for data in the report is Tue 8:30am so it likely wasn’t considered.