March 2023

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

He's right though. I lived the 80s and tracked weather in the 90s and the past 5 years, where we had one above average snowfall season in 5 years, was normal. 2000 through 2018 spoiled us like the 1960s did back then. 

the 1960s were nowhere near as great as what we had in the 2000s.  4 straight 40"+ winters and then 09-10 and 10-11 back to back and then 13-14 and 14-15 back to back WOW

 

[Volcanic Winter]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the 1960s were nowhere near as great as what we had in the 2000s.  4 straight 40"+ winters and then 09-10 and 10-11 back to back and then 13-14 and 14-15 back to back WOW

 

Even down where I am during 13-15 I had snow sticking around for weeks. My front porch was encased in ice and snow, it was something else let me tell you. 

Now that, for me, is what my preferred winter looks like. Since then we’ve had cold shots surrounded by tons of warmth and the occasional big storm. Ready and waiting to circle back…

Honestly I never had an issue with the shape of central / coastal Jersey winters until the post 2016 era where things are definitely changed, as per @bluewave‘s info about the southeast ridge and all the other elements that we keep discussing. Quasi permanent Niña, the MJO beginning to speed through favorable phases, etc. 

[LibertyBell]

Lee Goldberg on what happens after the March 13-14 noreaster, he just said "This is winter's last chance to do something.  After this big storm, the weather looks benign and will warm up."

[Gravity Wave]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Lee Goldberg on what happens after the March 13-14 noreaster, he just said "This is winter's last chance to do something.  After this big storm, the weather looks benign and will warm up."

The 17th-18th threat is still there on the models. The Euro/EPS are the least enthused about it but they have been trending in a positive direction.

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

There was a norlun during the April 1982 blizzard?

Wasn't there a norlun in February 1990 on eastern Long Island too?

 

No and no.

[MJO812]

[donsutherland1]

A colder regime is poised to develop in coming days, even as no severe March cold appears likely. The March 13-20 timeframe could be the month's coldest week with temperatures averaging 4°- 7° below normal for the week. The colder regime will gradually fade afterward, but could persist through the closing week of March.

A storm will likely bring rain to the coastal plain on Friday into Satuday. As the storm moves away on Saturday, the rain could end as a period of snow from Philadelphia to New York City. Well north and west of New York City and Newark, 1"-3" of snow could fall. Generally 0.5" or less appears likely in Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. However, there remains a degree of uncertainty.

Another larger storm could affect the region during the March 13-15 timeframe. Although this storm appears capable of bringing more snow to the region, the coastal plain again risks more rain than snow. There is a larger degree of uncertainty concerning this potential event. The picture should become clearer by the weekend.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. Despite attractive 500 mb patterns, the base case is that at least through March 10th, snowfall will likely be below normal from Philadelphia to New York City.

For further historical perspective, there were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. Historical perspective argues for caution when the operational models are popping big snowstorms into and out of existence like quantum particles in the extended range.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around March 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions have now given way to neutral ENSO conditions. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +5.93 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.533 today.

On March 7 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.856 (RMM). The March 6-adjusted amplitude was 3.659 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.0° (0.8° below normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

March 1997 and March 2015 also had extreme amplitudes in Phase 8.

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

March 1997 and March 2015 also had extreme amplitudes in Phase 8.

March 1997 had a bad outcome for us, while March 2015 was much better.

Does the preceding winter have an impact on outcome-- I think it would.

[coastalplainsnowman]

19 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Norlun in early December 1988 was over a foot in parts of central Suffolk, as was April 1982, but I can't think of any others.

Thanks - I think that locally I must have missed out on the Dec 1988 one. From what I've been reading about Norluns here, seems possible that central Suffolk got a foot while my total was less memorable. The internet not yet being a thing, ignorance was bliss for me on that one.  Today I'd be yelling at the radar.  Likewise the April 82 blizzard was great but likewise I think was like 8-10 here, but that's from memory/TV at the time.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     40degs.(35/46) or -3.

Reached 53 here yesterday at 4:30pm.

Today:   44-47, wind ne. to se., clouding up, rain by 5pm, 38 tomorrow AM and breezy.

It is over folks:

38*(58%RH) here at 6am{was 37 at 5am}        41* at 8am.     43* at 9am.     47* at 10:30am.        48* at Noon.        46* at 1pm.       43* at 5pm.

[SACRUS]

Records.  The records highs continued 7 years ago in 2016.

 

Highs:

EWR: 82 (2016)
NYC: 79 (2016)
LGA: 78 (2016)


Lows:

EWR; 10 (1984)
NYC: 12 (1929)
LGA:  12 (1984)

 

 

Historical:

 

1912 - The barometric pressure reached 29.26 inches at Los Angeles, CA, and 29.46 inches at San Diego CA, setting all-time records for those two locations. (David Ludlum)

1922 - Dodge City, KS, reported a record 24 hour total of 17.5 inches of snow. (The Weather Channel)

 

1986: Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes hit Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio. A total of 19 tornadoes occurred. Three of the tornadoes in Indiana reached F3 intensity. A densely populated subdivision of Southeast Lexington, Kentucky, was heavily damaged by a tornado. Twenty people were injured, and 900 homes were destroyed or demolished. A very strong thunderstorm downburst hit the Cincinnati area. At the Greater Cincinnati Airport, windows were blown out of the control tower, injuring the six controllers on duty. At Newport, Kentucky, 120 houses were destroyed by winds estimated from 100 to 140 mph. 

1987 - Strong northwesterly winds ushered arctic air into the eastern U.S. Gales lashed the middle and northern Atlantic coast. Winds gusted to 50 mph at Manteo NC and Cape Hatteras NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A winter storm produced snow and high winds in the Central Rocky Mountain Region. Snowfall totals in Utah ranged up to 42 inches at Alta, with 36 inches reported at the Brian Head Ski Resort in 24 hours. Winds gusted to 72 mph at La Junta CO and Artesia NM. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thirty-four cities in the central and southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The high of 85 degrees at Hanksville UT was a record for March, and Pueblo CO equalled their March record of 86 degrees. Hill City KS warmed from a morning low of 30 degrees to an afternoon high of 89 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing along a warm front produced severe weather from southeast Iowa to central Indiana and north central Kentucky. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Fort Knox KY, and hail two inches in diameter west of Lebanon IN. Evening thunderstorms over central Oklahoma deluged Guthrie with 4.5 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2010 - As many as four people are injured, one is killed and homes were damaged in Center Hill and Pearson, AR, by an EF2 tornado.

 

[MJO812]

Forky thinks this might slip way east

[North and West]

Forky thinks this might slip way east

Benefit of that is my yard drying out


.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records.  The records highs continued 7 years ago in 2016.

 

Highs:

EWR: 82 (2016)
NYC: 79 (2016)
LGA: 78 (2016)


Lows:

EWR; 10 (1984)
NYC: 12 (1929)
LGA:  12 (1984)

 

 

Historical:

 

1912 - The barometric pressure reached 29.26 inches at Los Angeles, CA, and 29.46 inches at San Diego CA, setting all-time records for those two locations. (David Ludlum)

1922 - Dodge City, KS, reported a record 24 hour total of 17.5 inches of snow. (The Weather Channel)

 

1986: Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes hit Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio. A total of 19 tornadoes occurred. Three of the tornadoes in Indiana reached F3 intensity. A densely populated subdivision of Southeast Lexington, Kentucky, was heavily damaged by a tornado. Twenty people were injured, and 900 homes were destroyed or demolished. A very strong thunderstorm downburst hit the Cincinnati area. At the Greater Cincinnati Airport, windows were blown out of the control tower, injuring the six controllers on duty. At Newport, Kentucky, 120 houses were destroyed by winds estimated from 100 to 140 mph. 

1987 - Strong northwesterly winds ushered arctic air into the eastern U.S. Gales lashed the middle and northern Atlantic coast. Winds gusted to 50 mph at Manteo NC and Cape Hatteras NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A winter storm produced snow and high winds in the Central Rocky Mountain Region. Snowfall totals in Utah ranged up to 42 inches at Alta, with 36 inches reported at the Brian Head Ski Resort in 24 hours. Winds gusted to 72 mph at La Junta CO and Artesia NM. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thirty-four cities in the central and southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The high of 85 degrees at Hanksville UT was a record for March, and Pueblo CO equalled their March record of 86 degrees. Hill City KS warmed from a morning low of 30 degrees to an afternoon high of 89 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing along a warm front produced severe weather from southeast Iowa to central Indiana and north central Kentucky. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Fort Knox KY, and hail two inches in diameter west of Lebanon IN. Evening thunderstorms over central Oklahoma deluged Guthrie with 4.5 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2010 - As many as four people are injured, one is killed and homes were damaged in Center Hill and Pearson, AR, by an EF2 tornado.

 

1912 - The barometric pressure reached 29.26 inches at Los Angeles, CA, and 29.46 inches at San Diego CA, setting all-time records for those two locations. (David Ludlum)

I wonder if this was accompanied by an intense cyclone?  I mean it would have to be, but how high were the winds and waves?

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Thanks - I think that locally I must have missed out on the Dec 1988 one. From what I've been reading about Norluns here, seems possible that central Suffolk got a foot while my total was less memorable. The internet not yet being a thing, ignorance was bliss for me on that one.  Today I'd be yelling at the radar.  Likewise the April 82 blizzard was great but likewise I think was like 8-10 here, but that's from memory/TV at the time.

Probably 8....10 inches was in parts of the city and 13 inches at Newark

[Roger Smith]

Don as you approach this five-day interval of snow possibility, could you post the top ten or maybe twenty of the futility index? Also could you show what if anything happens to 1997-98 after that later 5.0" snowfall? Does it drop by one or two ranks then? And if it's not too much trouble could you post the top ten outcome (end of snowfall season since the temp component is already known) list? TIA.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Don as you approach this five-day interval of snow possibility, could you post the top ten or maybe twenty of the futility index? Also could you show what if anything happens to 1997-98 after that later 5.0" snowfall? Does it drop by one or two ranks then? And if it's not too much trouble could you post the top ten outcome (end of snowfall season since the temp component is already known) list? TIA.

March 1998 roasted after that with temps in the mid to upper 80s, actually topped March 1990 in heat but I rank March 1990 higher because the heat that March occurred much earlier in the month.  And then 1990 flipped and we had an early April snow event with 1-2 inches of snow lol.

 

[Roger Smith]

LB, I remember the March (and late April) 1990 heat, I was living near Peterborough, ON back then. Moved west in 1995 just after the 100 degree heat and derecho went through. That March 1990 spell had to melt a foot of snow to become fully effective at my location but even so we made it to about 70 degrees. I used to watch a TV station out of ROC (no cable, pulled in on an antenna) and they hit 80 IIRC. Records were not just falling, they were being crushed into powder. 

[donsutherland1]

A cooler regime is now developing. The March 13-20 timeframe could be the month's coldest week with temperatures averaging 4°- 7° below normal for the week. Nevertheless, severe late-season cold is unlikely. The colder regime will gradually fade afterward, but will likely persist through the closing week of March.

A storm will likely bring rain to the coastal plain on this evening into tomorrow. As the storm moves away tomorrow, the rain could end as a period of snow from Philadelphia to New York City. Well north and west of New York City and Newark, 1"-3" of snow could fall. Generally 0.5" or less appears likely in Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City.

Another larger storm could affect the region during the March 13-15 timeframe. The coastal plain again risks seeing more rain than snow. Cities including Albany, Binghamton, and Concord, along with higher elevations could be in line for a substantial snowfall. Parts of central New York State, upstate New York, and central New England have a chance to see 1-2 foot amounts.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 10, New York City is at growing risk of seeing winter 2022-2023 finish with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 82% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 10 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. All such winters wound up with less than 20" of seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around March 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions have now given way to neutral ENSO conditions. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +5.17 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.297 today.

On March 8 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 4.281 (RMM). The March 7-adjusted amplitude was 3.913 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.0° (0.8° below normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A cooler regime is now developing. The March 13-20 timeframe could be the month's coldest week with temperatures averaging 4°- 7° below normal for the week. Nevertheless, severe late-season cold is unlikely. The colder regime will gradually fade afterward, but will likely persist through the closing week of March.

A storm will likely bring rain to the coastal plain on this evening into tomorrow. As the storm moves away tomorrow, the rain could end as a period of snow from Philadelphia to New York City. Well north and west of New York City and Newark, 1"-3" of snow could fall. Generally 0.5" or less appears likely in Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City.

Another larger storm could affect the region during the March 13-15 timeframe. The coastal plain again risks seeing more rain than snow. Cities including Albany, Binghamton, and Concord, along with higher elevations could be in line for a substantial snowfall. Parts of central New York State, upstate New York, and central New England have a chance to see 1-2 foot amounts.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 10, New York City is at growing risk of seeing winter 2022-2023 finish with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 82% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 10 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. All such winters wound up with less than 20" of seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around March 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions have now given way to neutral ENSO conditions. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +5.17 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.297 today.

On March 8 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 4.281 (RMM). The March 7-adjusted amplitude was 3.913 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.0° (0.8° below normal).

 

Hey Don, can you compile a list of our top 10 best winters for snowfall and our top 10 worst winters for snowfall and find out what enso conditions prevailed in them?  Thanks a bunch, it would be interesting to know how much of our ideas are correct, like la ninas after el ninos being among our snowiest winters, etc.

An interesting feature of JFM this year is that the average monthly temp has basically flatlined around 42 degrees lol.....all three months may have a very similar average temperature.  Has NYC ever had that happen for ANY three month period before?

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Don as you approach this five-day interval of snow possibility, could you post the top ten or maybe twenty of the futility index? Also could you show what if anything happens to 1997-98 after that later 5.0" snowfall? Does it drop by one or two ranks then? And if it's not too much trouble could you post the top ten outcome (end of snowfall season since the temp component is already known) list? TIA.

Roger,

Please find below:

1. The final rankings

2. Rankings through March 10th, excluding 2022-2023

3. Rankings through March 22nd (to reflect the impact of 1997-1998's 5.0" snowfall)

4. Rankings through March 10th, including 2022-2023

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Thanks on top of thanks Don, from that I surmise that this winter has no way of finishing first, would currently rank second as is, and could fall a few spots but given 10th 1952-53 had a cooler winter and 15" then I'm guessing the winter has a top ten locked up no matter how much snow these two events produce (within reason). 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Roger,

Please find below:

1. The final rankings

2. Rankings through March 10th, excluding 2022-2023

3. Rankings through March 22nd (to reflect the impact of 1997-1998's 5.0" snowfall)

4. Rankings through March 10th, including 2022-2023

 

 

 

Interesting how 1997-1998 was a full two degrees colder than 2001-02

and wow 1972-73 was a super cold winter!  35.6 average temp? You don't get that much cold even in our snowiest winters anymore!

 

Both of the above just give  me more confidence that 2001-02 was the worst winter here.

Or best if you take it the other way.

Don, just a minor issue, but if Tables 2 and 4 are supposed to be the same except for excluding 2022-23 in Table 2, how come the scores for each winter in Table 4 are different from the scores listed in Table 2?

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Thanks on top of thanks Don, from that I surmise that this winter has no way of finishing first, would currently rank second as is, and could fall a few spots but given 10th 1952-53 had a cooler winter and 15" then I'm guessing the winter has a top ten locked up no matter how much snow these two events produce (within reason). 

I think we'll end the season with under 5 inches so it should still be #2.  Very similar to 2001-02.

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting how 1997-1998 was a full two degrees colder than 2001-02

and wow 1972-73 was a super cold winter!  35.6 average temp? You don't get that much cold even in our snowiest winters anymore!

 

Both of the above just give  me more confidence that 2001-02 was the worst winter here.

Or best if you take it the other way.

Don, just a minor issue, but if Tables 2 and 4 are supposed to be the same except for excluding 2022-23 in Table 2, how come the scores for each winter in Table 4 are different from the scores listed in Table 2?

When 2022-23 is added, its numbers impact the means and standard deviations.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

When 2022-23 is added, its numbers impact the means and standard deviations.

Thanks!  I wish we calculated average temps the same way!  I like your way MUCH better than comparing them to some shadow "average" temp that changes every 30 years.

[mannynyc]

240 hour Canadian bomb? At this point, why not.

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

240 hour Canadian bomb? At this point, why not.

Hard to get excited 240 hours out but sure it happens why not. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    42degs.(36/48) or -1.

Month to date is    42.2[+2.3].        Should be    41.1[+0.9] by the 19th.

Reached 48 here yesterday at Noon.

Today:  41-43, rain till 1pm, wind ne., 35 tomorrow AM.

42*(85%RH) here at 6am{was 46 at 1am}    40* at 7am.    39* at 8am.     38* at 9am.      37* at 9:30am.      42* at Noon.      44* at 2pm.        42* at 6pm.      39* at 10pm.