March 2023

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

If it’s truly over an inch of qpf it’s hard to see cpk not getting an inch given that would imply at least some heavier rates. 

It will snow if it does come down hard enough.

[SnoSki14]

There might be a shot of arctic air with a storm nearby at the tail end of the March 13-20 period.

That's probably our last chance at anything if the next 2 waves don't work out

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

If there was only some decent cold air around. 

Kind of puts to rest that "you don't need cold air" theories?

[lee59]

19 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Kind of puts to rest that "you don't need cold air" theories?

The thing is with cold arctic air to the north and west of the storm, it makes the storm more intense and a much wider area of heavy snow and wind. With no cold air, yes it can snow with heavier precip. falling, especially inland. It is like shoveling cement if it even accumulates. As was mentioned earlier, we had a lot of good winters while the west suffered, this year is their year.

[Winterweatherlover]

The RGEM being warm for Tomorrow nights storm is definitely a concern but it’s also drier and this will be very dynamically dependent near the coast so it will make sense wetter=snowier, drier=rainier. 

[Winterweatherlover]

42 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Kind of puts to rest that "you don't need cold air" theories?

You don’t need it but it obviously helps a lot. There aren’t too many storms we actually get that are powerful enough to generate their own cold air. 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 82 (2016)
NYC: 77 (2016)
LGA: 75 (2016(
 

 

Lows:

EWR: 10 (1996)
NYC: 11 (1996)
LGA: 14 (1996)

 

Historcial:

 

1717 - On Fishers Island in Long Island Sound, 1200 sheep were discovered to have been buried under a snow drift for four weeks. When finally uncovered, one hundred sheep were still alive. (The Weather Channel)

1891: From March 9 through the 13th, a blizzard struck southern England and Wales with gale-force winds. 220 people were killed; 65 ships foundered in the English Channel, and 6,000 sheep perished. Countless trees were uprooted, and trains were buried. Up to a foot of snow and snowdrifts of 11.5 feet were reported in Dulwich, London, Torquay, Sidmouth, and Dartmouth. 

1956 - A whopping 367 inches of snow was measured on the ground at the Ranier Paradise Ranger Station in Washington. The snow depth was a state record and the second highest total of record for the continental U.S. (The Weather Channel)

1957: An earthquake measuring 8.6 struck the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. A Pacific-wide tsunami was generated that caused damage in Hawaii, but fortunately, no lives were lost. The most brutal hit was the island of Kauai, where houses were destroyed and roads washed away. Waves reached 34.1 feet high at Haena, HI

1960 - A winter storm produced a narrow band of heavy snow from north central Kentucky into Virginia and the mountains of North Carolina. Snowfall amounts ranged from 12 to 24 inches, with drifts up to eleven feet high in western Virginia. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Gale force winds ushered arctic air into the north central U.S. Some places were 50 degrees colder than the previous day. Northeast winds, gusting to 60 mph, produced 8 to 15 foot waves on Lake Michigan causing more than a million dollars damage along the southeastern shoreline of Wisconsin. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A cold front brought high winds to the southwestern U.S. Winds in the Las Vegas Valley of Nevada gusted to 70 mph, and one person was injured by a falling tree. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty-two cities in the southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. In New Mexico, afternoon highs of 72 at Los Alamos, 76 at Ruidoso, and 79 at Quemado, were records for March. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in West Texas. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 71 mph at Lubbock, and golf ball size hail was reported at several other locations. Strong thunderstorm winds injured two persons north of the town of Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2013: A supercell over eastern Oahu in Hawaii produced 4.25" hail NW of Kailua, the largest hailstone ever recorded in Hawaii. The storm also spawned a tornadic waterspout that came ashore and caused EF-0 damage.

 

[Gravity Wave]

If 2018 taught me anything it's that you're not getting meaningful accumulating snow in the City during daytime in March with marginal surface temps. Need that wave on the 17-18th to work out to get anything significant here out of this pattern, since that may have a better antecedent airmass.

[Winterweatherlover]

CMC way south for early next week might even miss us this run. 

 

Ok def not a miss but big improvement over the last run. 

[Winterweatherlover]

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030912&fh=108&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype-imp&m=gdps

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030912&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[Winterweatherlover]

CMC/Euro really want to hug, gfs still way east, can they meet in the middle?

[Yanksfan]

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

CMC/Euro really want to hug, gfs still way east, can they meet in the middle?

We need it to to go benchmark and really bomb out. There’s no cold high in place.

 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Absolutely.  I remember doing a rough count once, and during that same timeframe of about 1979-1993, my area of LI had fewer than six storms of 10" or greater, with the Blizzard of '83 being the only one surpassing a foot. 

Norlun in early December 1988 was over a foot in parts of central Suffolk, as was April 1982, but I can't think of any others.

[Metasequoia]

12 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

We need it to to go benchmark and really bomb out. There’s no cold high in place.

 

 

Yes.  Nearly everything has to go right for the City...lower Hudson Valley has more hope. Maybe there's a slushy inch for wave one unless a norlun appears from the mists.

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

We need it to to go benchmark and really bomb out. There’s no cold high in place.

 

 

Models are trying to build a high near the lakes but still a ways to go. 

This is a real tricky thread the needle with so many things going against it. 

The biggest problem is out west, shocking I know, but the lack of a ridge doesn't allow the northern stream in dive in faster and further south which would bring the cold air in. 

If we had a proper Rockies ridge the primary would end up further south and you'd have something closer to a miller A/C.  

[NJwx85]

I created a separate thread for the Monday-Tuesday storm.

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

We need it to to go benchmark and really bomb out. There’s no cold high in place.

 

 

our benchmark is in this zone

[EastonSN+]

First day of spring

[WX-PA]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

First day of spring

40's to near 50

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

40's to near 50

Crappy for spring to have below normal temps IMO. However to each their own.

[Volcanic Winter]

Through today on my Tempest I’m averaging 41.5 for March, the exact same as January finished at. 
 

Min temp was 24.1 on the first, max 59 on the 4th. 
 

Feb was 40.1 and December 36.5. One month winter .

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Crappy for spring to have below normal temps IMO. However to each their own.

i prefer cold springs who wants 80's and 90' in april when you can have them all summer...if you want hot weather in april move to florida...

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i prefer cold springs who wants 80's and 90' in april when you can have them all summer...if you want hot weather in april move to florida...

80s and 90s in April aren’t normal lol. 

60s and sunny is perfect. Just no maritime crap for days with fog. But we all know that’ll come in spades after the constant winter fails. 

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

80s and 90s in April aren’t normal lol. 

60s and sunny is perfect. Just no maritime crap for days with fog. But we all know that’ll come in spades after the constant winter fails. 

we really want the sun, as long as the sun is out temps in the 60s feel nice and warm with that April sunshine

and none of that coastal wind tunnel either lol

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

our benchmark is in this zone

wouldn't that be mixed precip ?

how about you draw a line that goes south from montauk and east from cape may and the point of their intersection is our benchmark :-)

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Norlun in early December 1988 was over a foot in parts of central Suffolk, as was April 1982, but I can't think of any others.

There was a norlun during the April 1982 blizzard?

Wasn't there a norlun in February 1990 on eastern Long Island too?

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Kind of puts to rest that "you don't need cold air" theories?

big difference in mid march and later lol

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 82 (2016)
NYC: 77 (2016)
LGA: 75 (2016(
 

 

Lows:

EWR: 10 (1996)
NYC: 11 (1996)
LGA: 14 (1996)

 

Historcial:

 

1717 - On Fishers Island in Long Island Sound, 1200 sheep were discovered to have been buried under a snow drift for four weeks. When finally uncovered, one hundred sheep were still alive. (The Weather Channel)

1891: From March 9 through the 13th, a blizzard struck southern England and Wales with gale-force winds. 220 people were killed; 65 ships foundered in the English Channel, and 6,000 sheep perished. Countless trees were uprooted, and trains were buried. Up to a foot of snow and snowdrifts of 11.5 feet were reported in Dulwich, London, Torquay, Sidmouth, and Dartmouth. 

1956 - A whopping 367 inches of snow was measured on the ground at the Ranier Paradise Ranger Station in Washington. The snow depth was a state record and the second highest total of record for the continental U.S. (The Weather Channel)

1957: An earthquake measuring 8.6 struck the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. A Pacific-wide tsunami was generated that caused damage in Hawaii, but fortunately, no lives were lost. The most brutal hit was the island of Kauai, where houses were destroyed and roads washed away. Waves reached 34.1 feet high at Haena, HI

1960 - A winter storm produced a narrow band of heavy snow from north central Kentucky into Virginia and the mountains of North Carolina. Snowfall amounts ranged from 12 to 24 inches, with drifts up to eleven feet high in western Virginia. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Gale force winds ushered arctic air into the north central U.S. Some places were 50 degrees colder than the previous day. Northeast winds, gusting to 60 mph, produced 8 to 15 foot waves on Lake Michigan causing more than a million dollars damage along the southeastern shoreline of Wisconsin. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A cold front brought high winds to the southwestern U.S. Winds in the Las Vegas Valley of Nevada gusted to 70 mph, and one person was injured by a falling tree. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty-two cities in the southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. In New Mexico, afternoon highs of 72 at Los Alamos, 76 at Ruidoso, and 79 at Quemado, were records for March. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in West Texas. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 71 mph at Lubbock, and golf ball size hail was reported at several other locations. Strong thunderstorm winds injured two persons north of the town of Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2013: A supercell over eastern Oahu in Hawaii produced 4.25" hail NW of Kailua, the largest hailstone ever recorded in Hawaii. The storm also spawned a tornadic waterspout that came ashore and caused EF-0 damage.

 

1717 - On Fishers Island in Long Island Sound, 1200 sheep were discovered to have been buried under a snow drift for four weeks. When finally uncovered, one hundred sheep were still alive. (The Weather Channel)

 

wow so we did get buried in 1717.....literally!  Glad to hear they were rescued, I wonder how much snow fell here?

also interesting how frigid 1996 was so late in the season and 2016 went back to warm lol

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Was never going to be this year. Record snow and cold on the west coast will "steal" all the arctic air.

It's their time though, while we were buried in snow 2000 through 2018 they ROASTED and dealt with an incredible drought.

Now it's their turn for a decade or two.

We will still get good years like 2020/2021, but the lionshare will be theirs.

As the METS say in the NE forum, regression.

it may be too late by the time it's our "turn" again

expect rapidly declinining snowfall averages from the 2050s onwards.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Completely agree. Also, 96/97 through 01/02 where a carbon copy of this year back to 18/19.

Only members who remember the 1960s would have lost their minds like those who just remember this century LOl

 

that was different, after 93-94 and 95-96 were so amazing I didnt really care or even remember 96-97 through 01-02

The Yankees were winning lots of world series with the greatest baseball dynasty of all time too, so winter weather didn't matter that much after 96.