March 2023

[snowman19]

Surprised it's so quiet in here, especially with the Euro bomb for areas just inland of 95; here's a sense of the 0Z suite (didn't think maps were worth posting this far out as they'll change so much).  The 3/11-12 event is 4.5-5 days away and, as usual, we have very little consensus, although every model is showing a much more powerful storm than on Saturday. The Euro has a huge snowstorm north of 80 (1-2 feet of snow) and a huge rainstorm SE of 95 (2-3" of rain) and a lot of snow and rain in between on Mon/Tues (with major disagreement on snowfall between 195 and 80 on SV vs. Pivotal). The GFS has 1-2" just NW of 95 (with 1/2" of rain for the rest of us), but has several inches N of 80 and a major snowstorm for much of New England, while the CMC also has 1-2" just NW of 95 (and 1"+ of rain along/SE of 95) and 3-6" N of 80, but misses most of New England, and the UK has a few inches NW of 95 (and rain along/SE of 95) on Monday, but has a significant snowstorm for most of us (and 1" or more of rain along/SE of 95) from the coastal low on Tuesday (and a major storm for most of New England). More to track.

The 6z runs are starting to show a New England special. Capture happens too late for us and the storm doesn’t really wrap up and crank until it’s at New England’s latitude

[donsutherland1]

EPS members for NYC for Friday into Saturday:

Ensemble support for a big snowfall in NYC, Newark, and their suburbs early next week is low on the ensembles. The 0z ECMWF is an outlier for the suburbs. For example, the ECMWF shows 11" for White Plains. However, just 3 of 51 (6%) of ensemble members show 10" or more. Even Binghamton, for which the ECMWF showed 29", had just 6 of 51 (12%) of ensemble members with 10" or more. While the storm can't be written off just yet, a lot more support will be needed to have confidence in a big snowfall idea.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and pleasant. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 50°

Newark: 53°

Philadelphia: 53°

Somewhat cooler than normal to near seasonable readings will likely prevail through the remainder of the week. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 47.5°; 15-Year: 48.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 48.5°; 15-Year: 49.3

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.3°; 15-Year: 50.6°

[EastonSN+]

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

EPS members for NYC for Friday into Saturday:

Ensemble support for a big snowfall in NYC, Newark, and their suburbs early next week is low on the ensembles. The 0z ECMWF is an outlier for the suburbs. For example, the ECMWF shows 11" for White Plains. However, just 3 of 51 (6%) of ensemble members show 10" or more. Even Binghamton, for which the ECMWF showed 29", had just 6 of 51 (12%) of ensemble members with 10" or more. While the storm can't be written off just yet, a lot more support will be needed to have confidence in a big snowfall idea.

Thanks as always Don.

This reminds me of the winters of my childhood where literally everything seemed to stop our are from snowing. I am so thankful we had 2000 through 2018. Outside of that period the 80, 90s and past 5 years have been terrible save a handful.

[lee59]

If there was only some decent cold air around. 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, lee59 said:

If there was only some decent cold air around. 

Was never going to be this year. Record snow and cold on the west coast will "steal" all the arctic air.

It's their time though, while we were buried in snow 2000 through 2018 they ROASTED and dealt with an incredible drought.

Now it's their turn for a decade or two.

We will still get good years like 2020/2021, but the lionshare will be theirs.

As the METS say in the NE forum, regression.

[snowman19]

Thanks as always Don.
This reminds me of the winters of my childhood where literally everything seemed to stop our are from snowing. I am so thankful we had 2000 through 2018. Outside of that period the 80, 90s and past 5 years have been terrible save a handful.

Before my time, but I looked up the stats, the period from 1979-1993 was the absolute worst for snowfall here. The worst 14 year consecutive period in the last 45 years. People on this board would have completely lost their minds back then

[MANDA]

Not that we need to relive the horror that was this past meteorological winter but here is a good summary for NJ climate sites.

 

https://www.njweather.org/content/normally-abnormal-february-2023-winter-20222023-recaps

[EastonSN+]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Before my time, but I looked up the stats, the period from 1979-1993 was the absolute worst for snowfall here. The worst 14 year consecutive period in the last 45 years. People on this board would have completely lost their minds back then

Completely agree. Also, 96/97 through 01/02 where a carbon copy of this year back to 18/19.

Only members who remember the 1960s would have lost their minds like those who just remember this century LOl

 

[gravitylover]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Before my time, but I looked up the stats, the period from 1979-1993 was the absolute worst for snowfall here. The worst 14 year consecutive period in the last 45 years. People on this board would have completely lost their minds back then

Ahh, that's where it went 

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Not that we need to relive the horror that was this past meteorological winter but here is a good summary for NJ climate sites.

 

https://www.njweather.org/content/normally-abnormal-february-2023-winter-20222023-recaps

There is where it all went LOL

https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-snow-la-nina-winter-weather-deb274f9d15bf36f602549fb50b866ff

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Ahh, that's where it went 

He's right though. I lived the 80s and tracked weather in the 90s and the past 5 years, where we had one above average snowfall season in 5 years, was normal. 2000 through 2018 spoiled us like the 1960s did back then. 

[EastonSN+]

For storm 1, the precip does not come in heavy enough, long enough. 

For storm 2, it looks like the storm will be too close. Still time but we need it to bomb out in the right spot. IF it does we can get buried. If not cold mix. 

 

[EastonSN+]

Some snow for the burbs.

LOL imagine if CPK measures another 0.1.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Some snow for the burbs.

LOL imagine if CPK measures another 0.1.

The winter of 0.1 inchers

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   39degs.(33/45) or -4.

Month to date is    42.4[+2.8].      Should be   40.7[-0.6] by the 17th.

Reached 49 here yesterday.

Today:  47-49, wind n. to ne., variable clouds, 35 tomorrow AM.

34*(64%RH) here at 6am.         40* at 10am.        45* at Noon.       47* at 1pm.      Reached  53* at 4:30pm.       43° at 9pm.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The winter of 0.1 inchers

THIS needs to happen for this storm to produce 1 plus......

See how HEAVY precip changes to all snow. This happened during the thunder snow storm. This is a narrow band left over from the low pressure transfer. If this can stay stationary long enough can get accums. 

Low probability but I like to think positive.

[Nibor]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Some snow for the burbs.

LOL imagine if CPK measures another 0.1.

I’d take the train over to cpk and flip every table I could find. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Completely agree. Also, 96/97 through 01/02 where a carbon copy of this year back to 18/19.

Only members who remember the 1960s would have lost their minds like those who just remember this century LOl

 

Absolutely.  I remember doing a rough count once, and during that same timeframe of about 1979-1993, my area of LI had fewer than six storms of 10" or greater, with the Blizzard of '83 being the only one surpassing a foot. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The winter of 0.1 inchers

Ant, this winter has been torture,,,,,in other news we all just know that CPK is going to wind up somehow getting some snow and avoiding snow futility as thats how this winter works if its not these storms it will be some Fluke down the road probably Easter Sunday 

[Winterweatherlover]

22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

For storm 1, the precip does not come in heavy enough, long enough. 

For storm 2, it looks like the storm will be too close. Still time but we need it to bomb out in the right spot. IF it does we can get buried. If not cold mix. 

 

For the city yea to the above. Seems the northern suburbs could do better with both storms. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Ant, this winter has been torture,,,,,in other news we all just know that CPK is going to wind up somehow getting some snow and avoiding snow futility as thats how this winter works if its not these storms it will be some Fluke down the road probably Easter Sunday 

I hope we break the record so we can put it in the past (all records are made to be broken).

That being said, image looking back 20 yrs fro now and seeing the record was broken by just 0.5 inches LOL. Talk about small spread.

 

[Winterweatherlover]

It’s going to be hard for CPK to not avoid futility. Lots of snow threats. I honestly still think Sat probably avoids the record if it’s measured before 7:00 am.,

[SnoSki14]

Wave 1 would've been a really nice storm if the air mass was slightly colder

Same air mass a month earlier probably would've worked too

[EastonSN+]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Wave 1 would've been a really nice storm if the air mass was slightly colder

If we get those higher rates it can accumulate.

TWC Cantore said would not surprise him if NYC gets 1 to 2 inches from this. Not likely but WOULD NOT SURPRISE.

[Winterweatherlover]

20 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I’d take the train over to cpk and flip every table I could find. 

Somewhat underdone imo but I get why they’d be conservative but I’m thinking closer to an inch at CPK and 1-3 just north of the city. 2-5 NW NJ/Orange county. 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If we get those higher rates it can accumulate.

TWC Cantore said would not surprise him if NYC gets 1 to 2 inches from this. Not likely but WOULD NOT SURPRISE.

The 06z Euro has over an inch of QPF and the system mostly falls overnight. 

A slightly colder air mass and we would've had a solid 6-10 or better storm. 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The 06z Euro has over an inch of QPF and the system mostly falls overnight. 

A slightly colder air mass and we would've had a solid 6-10 or better storm. 

Unfortunately all the cold and snow provided the west with the records. No way it could have been colder in a year like this.

Think 97/98 tons of perfect benchmark tracks and all rain. We have a better air mass that that but it's that kind of year.

[North and West]

Before my time, but I looked up the stats, the period from 1979-1993 was the absolute worst for snowfall here. The worst 14 year consecutive period in the last 45 years. People on this board would have completely lost their minds back then

My sweet summer child, I lived that.


.

[Winterweatherlover]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The 06z Euro has over an inch of QPF and the system mostly falls overnight. 

A slightly colder air mass and we would've had a solid 6-10 or better storm. 

If it’s truly over an inch of qpf it’s hard to see cpk not getting an inch given that would imply at least some heavier rates.