March 2023

[EastonSN+]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

There's a lack of an arctic high. You can see the semblance of a primary over upstate NY

You're going to get white rain or just rain on the coastal plain even with a great track. 

You will snow under the heavy bands. This is not 97/98 with no cold in all North America.

Explain to me how dynamic cooling would not work in this situation.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

You will snow under the heavy bands. This is not 97/98 with no cold in all North America.

Explain to me how dynamic cooling would not work in this situation.

You gotta dump that primary over upstate NY first. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

You gotta dump that primary over upstate NY first. 

Does not matter if u have a low exploding to the SE/East of us. Flow is from the north. 

The low that the NE forum is alluding to hurts during the initial overrunning, NOT the CCB.

 

[EastonSN+]

Think about February 2013.

Low to the NW.

Rain for half the forum to start.

Storm explodes and all change to snow.

 

[SnoSki14]

The trends are good though. Would be nice if they continued. You're getting northern stream involvement and more cold air is being drawn in.

[Winterweatherlover]

59 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

You will snow under the heavy bands. This is not 97/98 with no cold in all North America.

Explain to me how dynamic cooling would not work in this situation.

If the Euro depiction is accurate (and big if) if it will snow and snow a lot NYC on north imo. 

[brooklynwx99]

the EPS is pretty crazy. scanning over the individual members, the ones that do nuke the metro are the ones that end up stalling and looping ACK southward. these probably capture the soonest. keep an eye on members 4, 11, 15, 19, 20, 21, 30, 31, 33, 34, and 43... these all have a far S stall and deliver a MECS to the area

whether it happens or not is one thing, but there is certainly potential here

 

[snowman19]

You will snow under the heavy bands. This is not 97/98 with no cold in all North America.
Explain to me how dynamic cooling would not work in this situation.

Not even worth arguing about an operational run this far away. It is not going to play out anything like that in reality. Also of note the Euro is the only model showing this

[HeadInTheClouds]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not even worth arguing about an operational run this far away. It is not going to play out anything like that in reality. Also of note the Euro is the only model showing this

The CMC also shows a deepening coastal. 

[MJO812]

Nam coming in colder for wave 1

[hudsonvalley21]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam coming in colder for wave 1

QPF amounts basically held serv from the 12z run. A touch colder for the metro NYC area. Nice to see it hold.

[snowman19]

Nam coming in colder for wave 1

Same result….still 1-2 area wide: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030818&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[Nibor]

I’m all in. Haven’t seen the EPS look like this for a storm in a while. Certainly thermals will be questionable close to the coast but I’ll take my chances with a bombing low like is being shown.  

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

24 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

The CMC also shows a deepening coastal. 

Korean is going full 1888.  I can't find it on the net but it was posted on NE sub-forum.

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Not even worth arguing about an operational run this far away. It is not going to play out anything like that in reality. Also of note the Euro is the only model showing this

 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

Words cannot describe the joy I would feel.

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

[Heisy]

I think NYC region has a shot with this one… gotta get that CCB backed up into the region once the capture happens. We’ll see how the interaction between that southern vort plays out over next few days. Euro isn’t alone, icon is pretty similar and think looked better at 18z as well fwiw


.

[Winterweatherlover]

Pretty noticeable north shift on the GFS

 

 

12Z

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030812&fh=120&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs

 

18Z

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030818&fh=114&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs

[Doorman]

 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#

 

[Nibor]

14 minutes ago, Doorman said:

 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#

 

Oh look, the Riddler is back. 

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures again rose into the upper 40s and even lower 50s across the Middle Atlantic region. In southern Florida, Miami reached 90° for the third consecutive day. With March 6-8 seeing the temperature reached 90° or above, Miami has set a new record for its earliest heatwave. The previous record of April 8-10 was set in 2020.

A colder regime is poised to develop in coming days, even as no severe March cold appears likely. The March 13-20 timeframe could be the month's coldest week with temperatures averaging 4°- 7° below normal for the week. The colder regime will gradually fade afterward, but could persist through the closing week of March.

A storm will likely bring rain to the coastal plain on Friday into Satuday. As the storm moves away on Saturday, the rain could end as a period of snow from Philadelphia to New York City. Well north and west of New York City and Newark, 1"-3" of snow could fall. Little or no accumulation currently appears likely in Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. However, there remains a degree of uncertainty.

Another storm could affect the region during the March 13-15 timeframe. Although this storm appears capable of bringing more snow to the region, the coastal plain again risks more rain than snow. There is a larger degree of uncertainty concerning this potential event. The picture should become clearer by the weekend.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. Despite attractive 500 mb patterns, the base case is that at least through March 10th, snowfall will likely be below normal from Philadelphia to New York City.

For further historical perspective, there were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. Historical perspective argues for caution when the operational models are popping big snowstorms into and out of existence like quantum particles in the extended range.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around March 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions have now given way to neutral ENSO conditions. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +5.31 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.084 today.

On March 6 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 3.658 (RMM). The March 5-adjusted amplitude was 3.286 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.0° (0.8° below normal).

 

[Albedoman]

48 minutes ago, Nibor said:

this better explains it as I posted in the Philly forum  the models trying to hot a bouncing ball and we get whiffed everytime 

 

[wilsonvoid1]

 

is there a snowman for that lol


.

[Roger Smith]

Here's a list to aim for a top finish ... 3.3" gets to 60%, 4.4" to 66.7%, 5.1" to 70% and 6.8" secures second place at 75.6%. To pass 1997-98 will require 22.1" (the blizzard of 1888 or equivalent) ... Most in this list accumulated most of Mar-Apr in March but a few were mostly April (1981-82,  1937-38, 1914-15 and 1923-24 in particular). 1966-67 was about 34% and below the thresh-hold value of 35% to make this list (I set it at 35% expecting to get a top twenty so bonus ranks below that). This shows the strong March snowfall climatology especially for poor producers some of which made the list, others like 1931-32 did not (0.6" of 5.3" was only 11.3%). 1972-73 was almost done before March (a very mild one) began (0.2" of 2.8" was 7.1%). 2011-12 had zero snow to add to its meagre total of 7.4" and set a record for Oct percentage for sure (39%), second best there was 1952-53 at 3.3% and 1925-26 was 2.7%. The only other winter that had a percentage was 1876-77 at 2% (unless one counted Oct traces as 0.05" then a few others would have some outcome and one could say that 1972 had  2.2%. 

 

TOP THIRTY-SIX NYC WINTERS for % TOTAL SNOWFALL in MARCH-APRIL

Winter _____ Total snow __ MAR-APR __ % Mar-Apr

1997-98 ________ 5.5 _________ 5.0 ______ 88.9

1955-56 _______ 33.5 ________ 25.2 _____ 75.2 

1991-92 _______ 12.6 _________ 9.2 ______ 73.0 

1895-96 _______ 46.0 ________ 33.5 _____ 72.7

1889-90 _______ 24.4 ________ 17.4 ______ 71.3

1918-19 _________ 3.8 _________ 2.7 ______ 71.1

1914-15 ________ 28.8 ________ 17.9 ______ 62.2

1905-06 _______ 20.0 ________ 11.5 ______ 57.5

1915-16 ________ 50.7 ________ 28.8 _____ 56.8 

1958-59 _______ 13.0 _________ 7.3 ______ 56.2

1913-14 ________40.5 ________ 21.5 ______ 53.1

1891-92 _______ 25.3 ________ 13.0 ______ 51.4

2018-19 _______ 20.5 ________ 10.4 ______ 50.9

1940-41 _______ 39.0 ________ 19.2 ______ 49.2

1887-88 _______ 45.5 ________ 22.2 ______48.8

1992-93 _______24.5 _________11.9 ______ 48.6

1874-75 _______ 56.4 ________ 27.3 ______ 48.4

2006-07 _______ 12.4 _________ 6.0 ______ 48.4

1943-44 _______ 23.8 ________ 11.3 ______ 47.5

1983-84 _______ 25.4 ________ 11.9 ______ 46.9

1959-60 _______ 39.2 _______ 18.5 ______ 47.2

1937-38 _______ 15.1 _________ 7.1 _______ 47.0

1980-81 _______ 19.4 _________8.6 _______ 45.3

1899-1900 ____ 13.6 _________ 5.9 _______43.4

1869-70 _______ 27.8 ________ 12.1 _______43.2

1923-24 _______ 27.5 ________ 11.6 ______ 42.2

1981-82 _______ 24.6 ________ 10.3 ______ 41.7

1927-28 _______ 14.5 __________5.7 ______ 39.3

1951-52 _______ 19.7 __________7.4 ______ 37.6

2014-15 _______ 50.3 ________ 18.6 ______ 37.0

1957-58 _______ 44.7 ________ 16.1 ______ 36..2

1879-80 _______ 22.7 _________ 8.3 ______ 36.1 

1906-07 _______ 53.2 ________ 19.1 ______ 36.0 

1916-17 ________ 50.7 ________ 18.2 ______35.9

1979-80 _______ 12.8 __________4.6 ______ 35.9

1998-99 _______ 12.7 _________ 4.5 ______ 35.4

 

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Nice trend in the GEFS for early next week

[Nibor]

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nice trend in the GEFS for early next week

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

this better explains it as I posted in the Philly forum  the models trying to hot a bouncing ball and we get whiffed everytime 

 

This thing is defective!

[RU848789]

Surprised it's so quiet in here, especially with the Euro bomb for areas just inland of 95; here's a sense of the 0Z suite (didn't think maps were worth posting this far out as they'll change so much).  The 3/11-12 event is 4.5-5 days away and, as usual, we have very little consensus, although every model is showing a much more powerful storm than on Saturday. The Euro has a huge snowstorm north of 80 (1-2 feet of snow) and a huge rainstorm SE of 95 (2-3" of rain) and a lot of snow and rain in between on Mon/Tues (with major disagreement on snowfall between 195 and 80 on SV vs. Pivotal). The GFS has 1-2" just NW of 95 (with 1/2" of rain for the rest of us), but has several inches N of 80 and a major snowstorm for much of New England, while the CMC also has 1-2" just NW of 95 (and 1"+ of rain along/SE of 95) and 3-6" N of 80, but misses most of New England, and the UK has a few inches NW of 95 (and rain along/SE of 95) on Monday, but has a significant snowstorm for most of us (and 1" or more of rain along/SE of 95) from the coastal low on Tuesday (and a major storm for most of New England). More to track.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Surprised it's so quiet in here, especially with the Euro bomb for areas just inland of 95; here's a sense of the 0Z suite (didn't think maps were worth posting this far out as they'll change so much).  The 3/11-12 event is 4.5-5 days away and, as usual, we have very little consensus, although every model is showing a much more powerful storm than on Saturday. The Euro has a huge snowstorm north of 80 (1-2 feet of snow) and a huge rainstorm SE of 95 (2-3" of rain) and a lot of snow and rain in between on Mon/Tues (with major disagreement on snowfall between 195 and 80 on SV vs. Pivotal). The GFS has 1-2" just NW of 95 (with 1/2" of rain for the rest of us), but has several inches N of 80 and a major snowstorm for much of New England, while the CMC also has 1-2" just NW of 95 (and 1"+ of rain along/SE of 95) and 3-6" N of 80, but misses most of New England, and the UK has a few inches NW of 95 (and rain along/SE of 95) on Monday, but has a significant snowstorm for most of us (and 1" or more of rain along/SE of 95) from the coastal low on Tuesday (and a major storm for most of New England). More to track.

I think it is the fact that March storms rarely pan out for us ( at least the big storms ) in much of the subforum, along with fatigue at how frustrating this winter has been to date. I really will be surprised to see anything come of all this, but will be content with some mood flakes if they happen. So much has to go right even in the heart of winter that it makes the case that a good event at this time of the year is probably unlikely. But its fun to look at in the meantime; its more than we had to do all winter. Will hope for the best. Me, I've been distracted by my daughter going to Costa Rica for spring break for an ecology class, and worrying like fathers will do, while she warns me about all the deadly snakes down there. Yikes. What's an old codger to do? Hopefully some snow will distract me next week. Cheers.