Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Could be another situation where the south shore gets white rain or just rain and the north shore can be a few degrees colder and accumulate. Airmass is very marginal as others have said and we need it to deepen close by to bring some cold air in. If it’s light stuff it won’t accumulate unless you’re inland. Yea seems this could be similar to 2/28 the areas that saw mainly snow may see another few inches, the places that mixed with that probably won’t see much of anything with this. As of now this looks weaker but the setup isn’t that different so precip rates might intensify as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Yea seems this could be similar to 2/28 the areas that saw mainly snow may see another few inches, the places that mixed with that probably won’t see much of anything with this. As of now this looks weaker but the setup isn’t that different so precip rates might intensify as we get closer to the event. Probably yet another under 1 inch event. 0.5", which is normal for very marginal late season set ups with no cold air around. 2/28 we got close to 2" on the south shore though, this is probably more like the 2/1 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: We are usually good for some meaningless piddly events in March after a dud winter. Happens every time. Enjoy any mood flakes and get the lawn mowers ready. Yep this is very normal for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Probably yet another under 1 inch event. 0.5", which is normal for very marginal late season set ups with no cold air around. 2/28 we got close to 2" on the south shore though, this is probably more like the 2/1 event. Unless it bombs out closer to the coast I agree for your area. I think CPK likely gets enough to end the futility conversation as long as it's measured before 7 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Records: Highs: EWR: 77 (1987) NYC: 76 (1987) LGA: 74 (1987( Lows: LGA: 14 (1986) EWR: 13 (1996) NYC: 8 (1883) Historical: 1909: The town of Brinkley, Arkansas, was struck by an estimated F4 tornado, which killed 49 people. The tornado, which was two-thirds of a mile wide, destroyed 860 buildings. Entire families were killed as houses were completely swept away by the storm. The graphic below is from a tweet by the NWS Office in Little Rock, Arkansas. 1989: While Arctic cold gripped the northeastern U.S., unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the southwestern states. Albany, New York, reported a record low of 2 degrees below zero. Tucson, Arizona, reported a record high of 90 degrees. 2000: An F1 tornado traveled a short distance across Milwaukee, Wisconsin, during the evening hours. The tornado injured 16 people. 2018: A horseshoe cloud was seen over Battle Mountain, Nevada. a horseshoe cloud? I wonder where that came from? I don't remember the early season heat in 1987....did JFK also make it into the 70s Tony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Unless it bombs out closer to the coast I agree for your area. I think CPK likely gets enough to end the futility conversation. I'll believe it when I see it lol. Central Park usually gets lower numbers in late season events and matches the coast quite nicely. So I'd guess half and inch or less for Central Park and you have to be in the Bronx to get 1"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Seeing the gfs south east of other guidance for the 13-14th is pretty classic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Yup intensity and track. The problem this year has been a strongly coupled La Nina. RECORD troughing off the west coast and a dominant northern stream (again la Nina) has limited the air mass considerably on the east coast. The sad part, this setup would have absolutely buried us in almost all other setups (any setup other than strong la Nina and El Nino (97/98) conditions. If this setup happened last March CPK would have EASILY breached 10 inches. Timing is everything. It's more about time of year....I don't get my hopes up for March events anymore. In January or February this would have been MUCH better. You don't have a winter when January and February are so warm, those are our snow months. Other la ninas have had much better March snowfalls, like 1955-56 and 2017-18 of course. ENSO is only 20% of our weather, people blame it for way too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 CMC looks pretty decent for 2/13-2/14. A little warm for the coast but it's close. Interior would get hammered. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030812&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: 1967 1966-1967 was an amazing winter, from Christmas Eve snow to a historic February and March. That was our last truly cold March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'll believe it when I see it lol. Central Park usually gets lower numbers in late season events and matches the coast quite nicely. So I'd guess half and inch or less for Central Park and you have to be in the Bronx to get 1"+ Being at the Bronx/Westchester border does make me feel better about the next week than if I lived where I grew up in Queens, I will say that. These cutoffs seem tight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It's more about time of year....I don't get my hopes up for March events anymore. In January or February this would have been MUCH better. You don't have a winter when January and February are so warm, those are our snow months. I still do I snow till April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: I still do I snow till April! We do here too, it has even happened in la nina winters like April 2018. I think it snowed here in April 1956 too. Honestly la nina el nino has very little to do with how much snow we get. It's only about 20% of our weather. The PDO is more important as it is what puts the trough out west when negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Wave 1 looks like a 1-2 inch type event for most and that's only because most precip falls at night. Wave 2 still a ways out but CMC looks similar to 00z Euro. Dicey at coast but interior would do well. GFS not impressed but will probably correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 19 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Wave 1 looks like a 1-2 inch type event for most and that's only because most precip falls at night. Wave 2 still a ways out but CMC looks similar to 00z Euro. Dicey at coast but interior would do well. GFS not impressed but will probably correct. I think you might be in a good spot for storm 2. When GFS is surpressed and other models are amped it's likely coming north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: a horseshoe cloud? I wonder where that came from? I don't remember the early season heat in 1987....did JFK also make it into the 70s Tony? JFK has a record high f 72 from (1987) today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 There's literally a thread for wave 1 guys 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 SE Ridge/WAR has been dominant player since 15-16. In the past, we would get on big year like 1950 and then a relaxation. But it has been a continuing theme for 8 consecutive winters. So something completely new for this region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Rain to snow for Monday event on the 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Snowfall to date compared to normal to date as of March 7th 2023 for Northeast select cities 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Track is near perfect. Forget the thermals, with the precip rates this is a lot of heavy wet snow (no not white rain if you are under the banding). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Lol the EURO does the 1888 low pressure loop. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Love that loop 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 hours ago, weatherpruf said: We are usually good for some meaningless piddly events in March after a dud winter. Happens every time. Enjoy any mood flakes and get the lawn mowers ready. Yep. March 2018 had a far more favorable pattern (historic) and while the areas immediately around the city cashed in with some decent totals, it was mostly white rain even in my area of northeast Queens which is one of the colder sectors of the city. Unless it's a huge storm in a favorable position, I find it very difficult to get excited about mid March snow. Moderate events aren't getting it done around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Track is near perfect. Forget the thermals, with the precip rates this is a lot of heavy wet snow (no not white rain if you are under the banding). Yep the thermals are highly questionable in that run. An exploding low down by the Delmarva with rain? Don’t think so. That was an entertaining run regardless. Tons of potential. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, David-LI said: Love that loop Honestly that run is almost the perfect case scenario. Per the NE forum then Korean model did same thing LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, David-LI said: Love that loop Perfect track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 The GFS was just a touch away from a capture like the euro shows. Hmm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Yep the thermals are highly questionable in that run. An exploding low down by the Delmarva with rain? Don’t think so. That was an entertaining run regardless. Tons of potential. There's a lack of an arctic high. You can see the semblance of a primary over upstate NY You're going to get white rain or just rain on the coastal plain even with a great track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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