CIK62 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 EURO continues as an Ass Wipe. How to go from 20" to No Inches in one easy Wipe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Upton NWS disco LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... No changes were made to the long term forecast Thursday through next Monday. Another piece of PAC energy sets its eyes on the area late in the week into the weekend. The operational global models are in very good agreement in taking this energy and closing off an upper low in the vicinity of the the Northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest Thursday night into Friday, then diving the system ESE and off the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday. This will allow for a secondary low to form along the coast as the upper forcing approaches. Greatest uncertainty lies where the secondary forms. GEFs is the northernmost of the ensemble means and has good clustering just south of Long Island, however, the EPS and GEPs means are much farther south and also support their operations runs. NBM wind field, which was closely followed, reflects a track south of the forecast area. Like so many southern branch systems this year, the track and lack of available cold air, has resulted more often in liquid than frozen precipitation events. This event is no different. In addition, unlike the last 2 systems, there is no block across eastern Canada with cold air source bleeding cold air south across New England. Thus, this looks to be a mainly rain event with a rain/snow mix possible on the backside Saturday night. Prior to that time, offshore low pressure and a northerly flow from eastern Canada into New England will result in temperatures near normal with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s inland and 30s at the coast. High pressure to the west slowly builds into Thursday until weakening and moving offshore Friday ahead of the aforementioned coastal low. While it will still be breezy on Thursday, gusts should be weaker than Tuesday and Wednesday, generally 20-25 mph. Winds weaken further for Friday with high pressure over the area. Over the weekend, temperatures will depend on the exact track of the low, but subtle departures are forecast from the mid week period. It should be noted that NBM probabilities for seeing greater than 1 inch of liquid equivalent in 24h for the potential weekend system have held fallen a bit to 15 to 30 percent percent. For 2 inches, it remains generally under 5 percent. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 That didn’t take long! About 8:00 this morning and 3:00 this afternoon. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 That's not including all of the second wave. You have to go out further for northern areas. It still likely won't be accurate at 10:1. Agree. You aren’t getting 10:1 ratios during those waves. The Kuchera is actually closer to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 37 minutes ago, MANDA said: That didn’t take long! About 8:00 this morning and 3:00 this afternoon. Yeah March snows blow down here. It's really rare to get them to stick around which is why 2015 was extra special in that regard. I remember a deep pack 1st week of March, almost unheard of around here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 35 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Agree. You aren’t getting 10:1 ratios during those waves. The Kuchera is actually closer to reality Depends on the strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah March snows blow down here. It's really rare to get them to stick around which is why 2015 was extra special in that regard. I remember a deep pack 1st week of March, almost unheard of around here. Don’t cry because it’s over, smile because it happened. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 hour ago, MANDA said: That didn’t take long! About 8:00 this morning and 3:00 this afternoon. March. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: March. Ugh. Snow was gone here by 10:30am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Lingering snow tends to look filthy after the first 24 hours. I’m glad it melts quickly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Cfa said: Lingering snow tends to look filthy after the first 24 hours. I’m glad it melts quickly. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 A colder regime will very likely commence later this week. At present, no severe March cold appears likely. However, the March 13-20 timeframe could be the month's coldest week with temperatures averaging 4°- 7° below normal for the week. The colder regime will gradually fade afterward, but could persist through the closing week of March. Potential storminess around the March 11-12 timeframe has become less impressive on the ensembles. However, a second potential system has emerged for the March 13-15 timeframe. There is the potential for at least some snowfall in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia with either potential system. The first will likely be mostly rain for the cities. Uncertainty persists, but the picture should become clearer near or just after midweek for the earlier system and late this week or the weekend for the latter one. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. Despite attractive 500 mb patterns, the base case is that at least through March 10th, snowfall will likely be below normal from Philadelphia to New York City. For further historical perspective, there were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. Historical perspective argues for caution when the operational models are popping big snowstorms into and out of existence like quantum particles in the extended range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around March 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions have now given way to neutral ENSO conditions. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +7.42 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.487 today. On March 5 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 3.284 (RMM). The March 4-adjusted amplitude was 3.030 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.0° (0.8° below normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 3 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: No cold air but I guess if it bombed out 6 hours earlier than the 12Z OP run is showing it could be a bit different. Its cold enough probably so long as we don't see it track way north like the NAM is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its cold enough probably so long as we don't see it track way north like the NAM is showing I was talking about the second storm on the Euro. Not sure if the lack of cold air is due to airmass or track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Total for GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: Snow was gone here by 10:30am. We made it to about 9:30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 18Z Euro not a bad hit for first wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 18Z Euro not a bad hit for first wave Even hits my area with 5”+ in the elevations of N MD. Nice shift for wave 1 for sure. Day 4 is a great range to see improvements pop up on the EC. My folks live in Rockland county (new city) so I’m always in here and rooting for you guys as well. We all need some love these next 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 18z EPS, wave 2. 144 = day 6. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 about as good as it gets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 57 minutes ago, jayyy said: 18z EPS, wave 2. 144 = day 6. Bring it This will verify. I leave for Spain on the 12th and arrive in BCL on the 13th. We will get buried when I’m gone. I wish I could get odds on this shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 NAM looks pretty good for #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Not a bad look 4 days out.. might be good for couple inches.. the storm Tuesday is the one I'm interested in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 24 minutes ago, Sampson said: This will verify. I leave for Spain on the 12th and arrive in BCL on the 13th. We will get buried when I’m gone. I wish I could get odds on this shit. Don’t worry. Like today it will melt before the coffee truck comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 RGEM looks decent for storm 1 too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: RGEM looks decent for storm 1 too. I wouldn’t put too much faith in mesoscale models this far out but there certainly is an increasing chance of storm 1 working out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Disappointing model runs tonight with respect to 2nd wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Disappointing model runs tonight with respect to 2nd wave. Too far out to put too much into these runs for that one. Probably won’t figure it out until wave 1 is through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 24 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This is a case where you just need things to be perfect where the transfer is late enough that the system bombs in the right spot and it does not occlude too ast If you referring to this Sat I’m mostly giving up on a big storm idea and hoping for a few inches although def see how it could be something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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