March 2023

[BxEngine]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

In reality on Saturday, that’s all white rain and non accumulating slop. Temps are in the mid to upper 30’s, during the day, approaching mid-March. Those 10:1 maps are going to be way overdone

Thats friday night snowfall on the gfs. Not daytime. No one in the subforum is anywhere near the upper 30s during the overnight on the gfs. 

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So close to the March 1992 6.2" storm.  It's interesting that LGA in March 1992 actually went over 10 inches on the month because that storm was 6.7"?

Don what did EWR have in those two storms in March 1992?

Also do you have the totals for MPO for those two events?  Thanks!

Newark: 7.3" for the first storm, 4.1" for the second

Mount Pocono: 9.3" for the first storm, 6.8" for the second

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Third wave squished on the GEM

 

That really does look like it got a very close shave, a Low with a mohawk!

 

[Allsnow]

12 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Thats friday night snowfall on the gfs. Not daytime. No one in the subforum is anywhere near the upper 30s during the overnight on the gfs. 

DCA normal temp is 47 

[nycwinter]

21 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Thats friday night snowfall on the gfs. Not daytime. No one in the subforum is anywhere near the upper 30s during the overnight on the gfs. 

snowman19 has forgotten snow can happen at night

[EastonSN+]

GEFS is back on the wave 1 train and has it more intense now. Suppression/intensity looking like it's going to be more of a concern at this point over a tucked solution.

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

In reality on Saturday, that’s probably all white rain and non accumulating slop. Temps are in the mid to upper 30’s, during the day, approaching mid-March. Those 10:1 maps are going to be way overdone

That is incorrect, especially north of the city. If that particular scenario were to verify most of the precip would fall at night when temps were close to 30(especially around 84) so it would accumulate. 

[SnoSki14]

GFS was really close to something big. 

[EastonSN+]

Wave 1

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wave 1

Euro looks very similar to the CMC with the friday night snow. Only a little over 3 days away, so it looks as if we have a legitimate threat here. 

[winterwx21]

12z Euro warm with the early next week storm. Rain on this run, but as Allsnow said the main thing is we have a couple threats to track. 

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z Euro warm with the early next week storm. Rain on this run, but as Allsnow said the main thing is we have a couple threats to track. 

I think our best bet is wave one. The setup looks more favorable and there's some cold air draining south due to high near lakes. 

[EastonSN+]

End of run 3rd wave.

[brooklynwx99]

pretty much every driver here is improved on the EPS: farther W ULL, stronger ridging upstream over the Rockies, stronger confluence and a deeper S/W

[snowman19]

That Euro run was very unimpressive. Using the Kuchera, it has 1-2 inches of snow, total, in the metro area over the next 10 days. Not so much as a peep from Bernie Rayno, which is very telling. When he doesn’t think there’s a legit snow threat for the east coast he doesn’t post anything. If he thought this weekend and next week was a legit threat he’d be all over it right now

[The 4 Seasons]

Here's some futility stats across the region that i posted in the New England forums...looks like NYC is still #1 all-time on the season. If there's any errors let me know. Gonna have to add 0.1 from the snowfall this morning but the CLI isn't out yet so ill wait for that for the airports. 

Station ID | Snowfall to date | Normal snowfall to date | % snowfall to normal to date | rank if no more snow fell | snowfall needed to tie record

ALY | 41.9" | 48.6" | 86% | #16 | N/A

ORH | 31.8" | 60.9" | 52% | #9 | N/A

BDL | 19.6" | 43.8" | 45% | #10 | N/A

BOS | 11.9" | 41.0" | 29% | #4 | N/A

PVD | 11.5" | 31.4" | 37% | #5 | N/A

BDR | 4.9" | 27.6" | 18% | #1 | 3.3" 

LGA | 3.3" | 25.5" | 13% | #2 | N/A

NYC | 2.2" | 25.9" | 8% | #1 | 0.6"

JFK | 1.7" | 22.2" | 8% | #2 | N/A

ISP | 3.4" | 26.3" | 13% | #2 | N/A

[brooklynwx99]

I would not consider this unimpressive

[Winterweatherlover]

Now we have 3 waves to track but am getting tired of focusing on stuff so far out so right now just focused on wave 1 which looks decent on most models for at least a few inches but of course could change because of lack of cold air.

[Winterweatherlover]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I would not consider this unimpressive

No cold air but I guess if it bombed out 6 hours earlier than the 12Z OP run is showing it could be a bit different.    

[jm1220]

The Saturday event is worth watching for most of us IMO. It’s a pretty impressive upper level low that’s taking a half decent track for once and isn’t in danger of cutting. The confluence might crush it south but for once we wouldn’t have to worry about a cutter or SWFE threat, and a 50-70 mile or so shift north is a very real possibility at this stage and could deliver a warning or near warning event where it can bring in good moisture since it should be cold enough. 

Anything for next week is still way too early to call since we’ll need to see how the first storm rearranges the pattern and any setup for a follow up storm. 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The Saturday event is worth watching for most of us IMO. It’s a pretty impressive upper level low that’s taking a half decent track for once and isn’t in danger of cutting. The confluence might crush it south but for once we wouldn’t have to worry about a cutter or SWFE threat, and a 50-70 mile or so shift north is a very real possibility at this stage and could deliver a warning or near warning event where it can bring in good moisture since it should be cold enough. 

Anything for next week is still way too early to call since we’ll need to see how the first storm rearranges the pattern and any setup for a follow up storm. 

Really good post.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Saturday event is worth watching for most of us IMO. It’s a pretty impressive upper level low that’s taking a half decent track for once and isn’t in danger of cutting. The confluence might crush it south but for once we wouldn’t have to worry about a cutter or SWFE threat, and a 50-70 mile or so shift north is a very real possibility at this stage and could deliver a warning or near warning event where it can bring in good moisture since it should be cold enough. 

Anything for next week is still way too early to call since we’ll need to see how the first storm rearranges the pattern and any setup for a follow up storm. 

that evolution on the ECMWF is a nose hair from something much bigger. wouldn't take much at all... we need to see that ULL of the WC keep shifting W. if it shifts east next run, the changes at 12z could be erased. the whole setup is on a razor's edge

[Winterweatherlover]

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That Euro run was very unimpressive. Using the Kuchera, it has 1-2 inches of snow, total, in the metro area over the next 10 days. Not so much as a peep from Bernie Rayno, which is very telling. When he doesn’t think there’s a legit snow threat for the east coast he doesn’t post anything. If he thought this weekend and next week was a legit threat he’d be all over it right now

Sure this pattern could fail but it also succeed but appreciate you always letting us know the reasons why it could fail (not being sarcastic).  

[Nibor]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS individual lows….very slow moving too. Too bad it’s prob not the final solution but someone will prob get crushed on this whether it’s NNE/NY state or further south. 

 

EPS stolen from NE forum. 

[jayyy]

Storms 1&2 per 12z euro

Love seeing pink and purples over my house here in northern MD. I am under 2” for the entire season.


.

[jm1220]

57 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Here's some futility stats across the region that i posted in the New England forums...looks like NYC is still #1 all-time on the season. If there's any errors let me know. Gonna have to add 0.1 from the snowfall this morning but the CLI isn't out yet so ill wait for that for the airports. 

Station ID | Snowfall to date | Normal snowfall to date | % snowfall to normal to date | rank if no more snow fell | snowfall needed to tie record

ALY | 41.9" | 48.6" | 86% | #16 | N/A

ORH | 31.8" | 60.9" | 52% | #9 | N/A

BDL | 19.6" | 43.8" | 45% | #10 | N/A

BOS | 11.9" | 41.0" | 29% | #4 | N/A

PVD | 11.5" | 31.4" | 37% | #5 | N/A

BDR | 4.9" | 27.6" | 18% | #1 | 3.3" 

LGA | 3.3" | 25.5" | 13% | #2 | N/A

NYC | 2.2" | 25.9" | 8% | #1 | 0.6"

JFK | 1.7" | 22.2" | 8% | #2 | N/A

ISP | 3.4" | 26.3" | 13% | #2 | N/A

Yep still in line for the record. Saturday has a decent chance at producing something but difficult to get excited this winter until it’s actually snowing. 

With the snow this morning I’m up to about 7.5”. Might as well be the snow belt compared to places just SW of me. 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Storms 1&2 per 12z euro

Love seeing pink and purples over my house here in northern MD. I am under 2” for the entire season.


.

Looks like the models are trying to fill in New Jersey like a coloring book.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I think Central Park measured 0.1” this morning. But still in line for the record. Saturday has a decent chance at producing something but difficult to get excited this winter until it’s actually snowing. 

With the snow this morning I’m up to about 7.5”. Might as well be the snow belt compared to places just SW of me. 

Yeah i said that in the post, just didnt include it until all the airports come in with their CLI around 4:30pm today. 

It's not that better up here. BDR has a great shot right now of beating the all time record, they need another 3.3 to tie and 3.4 to beat it

Im only at 8.9 even here.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah i said that in the post, just didnt include it until all the airports come in with their CLI around 4:30pm today. 

It's not that better up here. BDR has a great shot right now of beating the all time record, they need another 3.3 to tie and 3.4 to beat it

Im only at 8.9 even here.

Yeah I saw that after I made the original post and edited it out. Thanks for putting it together. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

17 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Storms 1&2 per 12z euro

Love seeing pink and purples over my house here in northern MD. I am under 2” for the entire season.


.

That's not including all of the second wave. You have to go out further for northern areas. It still likely won't be accurate at 10:1.