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March 2023

Rjay

By Rjay,
in New York City Metro

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah you're not going to get a winter savior in mid March. When things are bad they usually stay bad. 

Every day that a threat is delayed makes it that much more unlikely to occur. Time is running out. 

Other than 1888 which was a warm snowless winter followed by March history, how many winters have had snowy Marches after a below average DJF?

91/92

18/19

Any others?

On the flip side, how many snowy Decembers have we had followed by below average JFM?

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snowman19
snowman19

I think you can definitely rule out a cutter with that block. An inland runner is a possibly though as is a coastal track and OTS but I think you can definitely eliminate a cutter option

BxEngine
BxEngine

Thats friday night snowfall on the gfs. Not daytime. No one in the subforum is anywhere near the upper 30s during the overnight on the gfs. 

jm1220
jm1220

The Saturday event is worth watching for most of us IMO. It’s a pretty impressive upper level low that’s taking a half decent track for once and isn’t in danger of cutting. The confluence might crush

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the_other_guy

the_other_guy

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

The NWS likes to be, for good reason, as cautious as possible with their forecasts, especially this far out with nothing close to model consensus. The cold air is certainly an issue, but it’s more fun to be optimistic than pessimistic. We aren’t the NWS. This weekend and next weekend are our bests shots for a moderate snowfall this year, but it is far from a sure thing. 

It is March. Not December. there seems to be a narrative that March is the new December but that really isn’t the case. March is warm. The sun sucks. The days are long. Past the first week (and that is us now) marginal can not be part of the equation

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

It is March. Not December. there seems to be a narrative that March is the new December but that really isn’t the case. March is warm. The sun sucks. The days are long. Past the first week (and that is us now) marginal can not be part of the equation

In my area of Connecticut March has been historically snowier than December. It depends on local I guess.

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Let’s let the next week or so play out before writing off winter. There’s massive potential especially storm 2 but could also be whiffs. I agree after March 15 the odds of significant snow especially NYC and south drop significantly. 

Per my post above I think the 2nd wave around the 14th holds the most potential. The air mass ahead of the storm is much colder and would allow for snow in a weaker storm. Hopefully the EPS and GEPS are correct.

We usually do better with a colder air mass in place of course. 

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Winterweatherlover

Winterweatherlover

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Per my post above I think the 2nd wave around the 14th holds the most potential. The air mass ahead of the storm is much colder and would allow for snow in a weaker storm. Hopefully the EPS and GEPS are correct.

We usually do better with a colder air mass in place of course. 

Agree wave 2 is the one I think with KU potential. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If one wants to investigate why this winter was so bad one just has to look to the west. Incredible year for them! The GEFS image below sums up December February and March. On TWC they mentioned 81/82 as a comparable year.

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/california/west-coast-snowfall/3170182/

image.thumb.png.76a7d7a9aed513c4ed85b68912697744.png

And there’s still plenty more coming for CA. Multiple atmospheric rivers likely and they will be warmer, so the snow will start to melt and add to the flooding.  The PNA has been so insanely negative/bad that it’s driven the storms into CA instead of the Pacific NW like Nina would normally. 

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

And there’s still plenty more coming for CA. Multiple atmospheric rivers likely and they will be warmer, so the snow will start to melt and add to the flooding.  The PNA has been so insanely negative/bad that it’s driven the storms into CA instead of the Pacific NW like Nina would normally. 

The orientation of the trough is key too. It has been west therefore allowing for the atmospheric river to hit socal. Usually in a la Nina the trough is further east more inland  

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Other than 1888 which was a warm snowless winter followed by March history, how many winters have had snowy Marches after a below average DJF?

91/92

18/19

Any others?

On the flip side, how many snowy Decembers have we had followed by below average JFM?

18-19 was snowy in March? I don't remember that

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

If one wants to investigate why this winter was so bad one just has to look to the west. Incredible year for them! The GEFS image below sums up December February and March. On TWC they mentioned 81/82 as a comparable year.

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/california/west-coast-snowfall/3170182/

image.thumb.png.76a7d7a9aed513c4ed85b68912697744.png

Cant be 81-82, they are talking about 82-83 right?

81-82 was extremely cold and we had a three day snowstorm in January (the one which caused a jet to crash into the icy Potomac) and a historic blizzard in April.  We also hit 0 in January.

 

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Records:  we were still in the middle of record highs last year 2022.

 

Highs:


EWR: 76 (2022)
LGA: 74 (2022)
NYC: 74 (2022)

 

Lows:



NYC: 7 (1890)
EWR: 11 (2015)
LGA: 14 (2007)

 

Historical:

1717 - The Great Snow, a composite of four winter storms to hit the eastern U.S. in nine days, finally came to an end. Snow depths averaged 60 inches following the storm. Up to four feet of snow fell around Boston MA, and snow drifts 25 feet high were reported around Dorchester MA. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1932 - A severe coastal storm set barometric pressure records from Virginia to New England. Block Island RI reported a barometric pressure reading of 28.20 inches. (David Ludlum)

 

1947: On March 7, 1947, not long after the end of World War II and years before Sputnik ushered in the space age, a group of soldiers and scientists in the New Mexico desert saw something new and wonderful in this grainy black-and-white-photos - the first pictures of Earth as seen from an altitude greater than 100 miles in space. 

1987 - Forty-five cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Huron SD hit 80 degrees, and Pickstown SD reached 81 degrees. Rochester MN and Rockford IL smashed their previous record for the date by sixteen degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - High winds along a sharp cold front ushered snow and arctic cold into the Central Rocky Mountain Region and the Northern Plains. Snowfall totals in Utah ranged up to sixteen inches at Brighton. Winds gusted to 66 mph at Rapid City SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Blustery northwest winds ushered arctic cold into eastern U.S. Burlington VT reported a record low of 14 degrees below zero. Snow and ice over the Carolinas replaced the 80 degree weather of the previous day. High winds and heavy surf caused five million dollars damage along the North Carolina coast. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

 

1990 - A major ice storm left much of Iowa under a thick coat of ice. It was the worst ice storm in at least twenty-five years for Iowa, perhaps the worst of the century. Up to two inches of ice coated much of western and central Iowa, with three inches reported in Crawford County and Carroll County. As much as five inches of ice was reported on some electrical lines. The ice downed 78 towers in a 17-mile stretch of a high voltage feeder near Boone costing three electric utilities fifteen million dollars. Damage to trees was incredible, and clean-up costs alone ran into the millions. Total damage from the storm was more than fifty million dollars. (Storm Data)

2018: A teacher was struck by lightning outside an Ocean County, New Jersey middle school during a rare weather phenomenon known as thundersnow. 

 

 

 

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
Just now, SACRUS said:

Records:  we were still in the middle of record highs last year 2022.

 

Highs:


EWR: 76 (2022)
LGA: 74 (2022)
NYC: 74 (2022)

 

Lows:



NYC: 7 (1890)
EWR: 11 (2015)
LGA: 14 (2007)

 

Historical:

1717 - The Great Snow, a composite of four winter storms to hit the eastern U.S. in nine days, finally came to an end. Snow depths averaged 60 inches following the storm. Up to four feet of snow fell around Boston MA, and snow drifts 25 feet high were reported around Dorchester MA. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1932 - A severe coastal storm set barometric pressure records from Virginia to New England. Block Island RI reported a barometric pressure reading of 28.20 inches. (David Ludlum)

 

1947: On March 7, 1947, not long after the end of World War II and years before Sputnik ushered in the space age, a group of soldiers and scientists in the New Mexico desert saw something new and wonderful in this grainy black-and-white-photos - the first pictures of Earth as seen from an altitude greater than 100 miles in space. 

1987 - Forty-five cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Huron SD hit 80 degrees, and Pickstown SD reached 81 degrees. Rochester MN and Rockford IL smashed their previous record for the date by sixteen degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - High winds along a sharp cold front ushered snow and arctic cold into the Central Rocky Mountain Region and the Northern Plains. Snowfall totals in Utah ranged up to sixteen inches at Brighton. Winds gusted to 66 mph at Rapid City SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Blustery northwest winds ushered arctic cold into eastern U.S. Burlington VT reported a record low of 14 degrees below zero. Snow and ice over the Carolinas replaced the 80 degree weather of the previous day. High winds and heavy surf caused five million dollars damage along the North Carolina coast. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2018: A teacher was struck by lightning outside an Ocean County, New Jersey middle school during a rare weather phenomenon known as thundersnow. 

1990 - A major ice storm left much of Iowa under a thick coat of ice. It was the worst ice storm in at least twenty-five years for Iowa, perhaps the worst of the century. Up to two inches of ice coated much of western and central Iowa, with three inches reported in Crawford County and Carroll County. As much as five inches of ice was reported on some electrical lines. The ice downed 78 towers in a 17-mile stretch of a high voltage feeder near Boone costing three electric utilities fifteen million dollars. Damage to trees was incredible, and clean-up costs alone ran into the millions. Total damage from the storm was more than fifty million dollars. (Storm Data)

 

 

 

It would be interesting to see how much snow we got here in 1717 lol

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, mannynyc said:

The NWS likes to be, for good reason, as cautious as possible with their forecasts, especially this far out with nothing close to model consensus. The cold air is certainly an issue, but it’s more fun to be optimistic than pessimistic. We aren’t the NWS. This weekend and next weekend are our bests shots for a moderate snowfall this year, but it is far from a sure thing. 

Maybe they are cautious because of what happened in March 2001 and January 2015?

 

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Nibor said: 
Thus, this looks to be a mainly rain event with a rain/snow mix
possible on the backside Saturday night.

Lol

Same with Mt. Holly, as they're not impressed with either potential system...  

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The axis of the mid level and surface ridges are expected to
pass off the coast on Friday. We should experience another day
with generally dry weather conditions and seasonable
temperatures.

Guidance continues to come into better agreement with forecast
for the weekend. The overall pattern suggests that a mid level
low will progress from around Lake Erie on Friday evening to the
waters off southern New Jersey and Delaware on Saturday
afternoon. Meanwhile, an initial surface low is expected to
weaken in western Pennsylvania on Friday night with a secondary
low developing off the Middle Atlantic Coast. The secondary low
is anticipated to deepen rapidly as it moves farther out to sea
on Saturday and Saturday night. The system is forecast to bring
our next precipitation event from Friday night into Saturday.
The pattern is expected to keep any significant cold air from
building into our region. As a result, the precipitation type
should be mainly rain, with the potential for a wintry mix from
the Interstate 78 Corridor northward.

High pressure is expected to follow for Sunday. A mid level
trough is forecast to drop over the Great Lakes on Monday, with
surface low pressure approaching our region from the west and
southwest. We will indicate a chance of precipitation for
Monday. Temperatures should remain seasonable so we will carry
mainly rain and allow for a wintry mix up north.
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