EastonSN+ Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah you're not going to get a winter savior in mid March. When things are bad they usually stay bad. Every day that a threat is delayed makes it that much more unlikely to occur. Time is running out. Other than 1888 which was a warm snowless winter followed by March history, how many winters have had snowy Marches after a below average DJF? 91/92 18/19 Any others? On the flip side, how many snowy Decembers have we had followed by below average JFM? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, mannynyc said: The NWS likes to be, for good reason, as cautious as possible with their forecasts, especially this far out with nothing close to model consensus. The cold air is certainly an issue, but it’s more fun to be optimistic than pessimistic. We aren’t the NWS. This weekend and next weekend are our bests shots for a moderate snowfall this year, but it is far from a sure thing. It is March. Not December. there seems to be a narrative that March is the new December but that really isn’t the case. March is warm. The sun sucks. The days are long. Past the first week (and that is us now) marginal can not be part of the equation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Even though the GEFS is focusing on the first wave, we should be rooting for the second wave. I mean this look below is great AND we have a cold air mass in FRONT of the system unlike this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 minute ago, the_other_guy said: It is March. Not December. there seems to be a narrative that March is the new December but that really isn’t the case. March is warm. The sun sucks. The days are long. Past the first week (and that is us now) marginal can not be part of the equation In my area of Connecticut March has been historically snowier than December. It depends on local I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: In my area of Connecticut March has been historically snowier than December. It depends on local I guess. That is after we lost Dec though right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 If one wants to investigate why this winter was so bad one just has to look to the west. Incredible year for them! The GEFS image below sums up December February and March. On TWC they mentioned 81/82 as a comparable year. https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/california/west-coast-snowfall/3170182/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 minute ago, the_other_guy said: That is after we lost Dec though right? Since I have been tracking in 1990. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Let’s let the next week or so play out before writing off winter. There’s massive potential especially storm 2 but could also be whiffs. I agree after March 15 the odds of significant snow especially NYC and south drop significantly. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Let’s let the next week or so play out before writing off winter. There’s massive potential especially storm 2 but could also be whiffs. I agree after March 15 the odds of significant snow especially NYC and south drop significantly. Per my post above I think the 2nd wave around the 14th holds the most potential. The air mass ahead of the storm is much colder and would allow for snow in a weaker storm. Hopefully the EPS and GEPS are correct. We usually do better with a colder air mass in place of course. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Per my post above I think the 2nd wave around the 14th holds the most potential. The air mass ahead of the storm is much colder and would allow for snow in a weaker storm. Hopefully the EPS and GEPS are correct. We usually do better with a colder air mass in place of course. Agree wave 2 is the one I think with KU potential. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Agree wave 2 is the one I think with KU potential. This is probably true but wave 1 could muck things up so we don't get either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: This is probably true but wave 1 could muck things up so we don't get either. Lol got to think positive/hopes ups my friend. Better way to live life! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 This is probably true but wave 1 could muck things up so we don't get either. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 To lighten the mood took this from the NE thread from a TV station in my state of CT. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 48 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: If one wants to investigate why this winter was so bad one just has to look to the west. Incredible year for them! The GEFS image below sums up December February and March. On TWC they mentioned 81/82 as a comparable year. https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/california/west-coast-snowfall/3170182/ And there’s still plenty more coming for CA. Multiple atmospheric rivers likely and they will be warmer, so the snow will start to melt and add to the flooding. The PNA has been so insanely negative/bad that it’s driven the storms into CA instead of the Pacific NW like Nina would normally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 37 minutes ago, jm1220 said: And there’s still plenty more coming for CA. Multiple atmospheric rivers likely and they will be warmer, so the snow will start to melt and add to the flooding. The PNA has been so insanely negative/bad that it’s driven the storms into CA instead of the Pacific NW like Nina would normally. The orientation of the trough is key too. It has been west therefore allowing for the atmospheric river to hit socal. Usually in a la Nina the trough is further east more inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Other than 1888 which was a warm snowless winter followed by March history, how many winters have had snowy Marches after a below average DJF? 91/92 18/19 Any others? On the flip side, how many snowy Decembers have we had followed by below average JFM? 18-19 was snowy in March? I don't remember that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: If one wants to investigate why this winter was so bad one just has to look to the west. Incredible year for them! The GEFS image below sums up December February and March. On TWC they mentioned 81/82 as a comparable year. https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/california/west-coast-snowfall/3170182/ Cant be 81-82, they are talking about 82-83 right? 81-82 was extremely cold and we had a three day snowstorm in January (the one which caused a jet to crash into the icy Potomac) and a historic blizzard in April. We also hit 0 in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Records: we were still in the middle of record highs last year 2022. Highs: EWR: 76 (2022) LGA: 74 (2022) NYC: 74 (2022) Lows: NYC: 7 (1890) EWR: 11 (2015) LGA: 14 (2007) Historical: 1717 - The Great Snow, a composite of four winter storms to hit the eastern U.S. in nine days, finally came to an end. Snow depths averaged 60 inches following the storm. Up to four feet of snow fell around Boston MA, and snow drifts 25 feet high were reported around Dorchester MA. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1932 - A severe coastal storm set barometric pressure records from Virginia to New England. Block Island RI reported a barometric pressure reading of 28.20 inches. (David Ludlum) 1947: On March 7, 1947, not long after the end of World War II and years before Sputnik ushered in the space age, a group of soldiers and scientists in the New Mexico desert saw something new and wonderful in this grainy black-and-white-photos - the first pictures of Earth as seen from an altitude greater than 100 miles in space. 1987 - Forty-five cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Huron SD hit 80 degrees, and Pickstown SD reached 81 degrees. Rochester MN and Rockford IL smashed their previous record for the date by sixteen degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - High winds along a sharp cold front ushered snow and arctic cold into the Central Rocky Mountain Region and the Northern Plains. Snowfall totals in Utah ranged up to sixteen inches at Brighton. Winds gusted to 66 mph at Rapid City SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Blustery northwest winds ushered arctic cold into eastern U.S. Burlington VT reported a record low of 14 degrees below zero. Snow and ice over the Carolinas replaced the 80 degree weather of the previous day. High winds and heavy surf caused five million dollars damage along the North Carolina coast. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A major ice storm left much of Iowa under a thick coat of ice. It was the worst ice storm in at least twenty-five years for Iowa, perhaps the worst of the century. Up to two inches of ice coated much of western and central Iowa, with three inches reported in Crawford County and Carroll County. As much as five inches of ice was reported on some electrical lines. The ice downed 78 towers in a 17-mile stretch of a high voltage feeder near Boone costing three electric utilities fifteen million dollars. Damage to trees was incredible, and clean-up costs alone ran into the millions. Total damage from the storm was more than fifty million dollars. (Storm Data) 2018: A teacher was struck by lightning outside an Ocean County, New Jersey middle school during a rare weather phenomenon known as thundersnow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: In my area of Connecticut March has been historically snowier than December. It depends on local I guess. it switches back and forth. He's right about marginal though. You need a true arctic airmass to get a big snowstorm in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Just now, SACRUS said: Records: we were still in the middle of record highs last year 2022. Highs: EWR: 76 (2022) LGA: 74 (2022) NYC: 74 (2022) Lows: NYC: 7 (1890) EWR: 11 (2015) LGA: 14 (2007) Historical: 1717 - The Great Snow, a composite of four winter storms to hit the eastern U.S. in nine days, finally came to an end. Snow depths averaged 60 inches following the storm. Up to four feet of snow fell around Boston MA, and snow drifts 25 feet high were reported around Dorchester MA. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1932 - A severe coastal storm set barometric pressure records from Virginia to New England. Block Island RI reported a barometric pressure reading of 28.20 inches. (David Ludlum) 1947: On March 7, 1947, not long after the end of World War II and years before Sputnik ushered in the space age, a group of soldiers and scientists in the New Mexico desert saw something new and wonderful in this grainy black-and-white-photos - the first pictures of Earth as seen from an altitude greater than 100 miles in space. 1987 - Forty-five cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Huron SD hit 80 degrees, and Pickstown SD reached 81 degrees. Rochester MN and Rockford IL smashed their previous record for the date by sixteen degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - High winds along a sharp cold front ushered snow and arctic cold into the Central Rocky Mountain Region and the Northern Plains. Snowfall totals in Utah ranged up to sixteen inches at Brighton. Winds gusted to 66 mph at Rapid City SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Blustery northwest winds ushered arctic cold into eastern U.S. Burlington VT reported a record low of 14 degrees below zero. Snow and ice over the Carolinas replaced the 80 degree weather of the previous day. High winds and heavy surf caused five million dollars damage along the North Carolina coast. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2018: A teacher was struck by lightning outside an Ocean County, New Jersey middle school during a rare weather phenomenon known as thundersnow. 1990 - A major ice storm left much of Iowa under a thick coat of ice. It was the worst ice storm in at least twenty-five years for Iowa, perhaps the worst of the century. Up to two inches of ice coated much of western and central Iowa, with three inches reported in Crawford County and Carroll County. As much as five inches of ice was reported on some electrical lines. The ice downed 78 towers in a 17-mile stretch of a high voltage feeder near Boone costing three electric utilities fifteen million dollars. Damage to trees was incredible, and clean-up costs alone ran into the millions. Total damage from the storm was more than fifty million dollars. (Storm Data) It would be interesting to see how much snow we got here in 1717 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 18-19 was snowy in March? I don't remember that Yup. First storm I had 3.5 second storm 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 5 hours ago, Tatamy said: I just woke up, looked outside and then saw that. I thought to myself WTF this is beyond insane. It’s looks like something the GFS would dream up. why isn't it showing much east of the city-- the map doesn't go out far enough in time to cover long island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: NWS Upton is not buying any snow for Saturday. They are calling for rain even up here in Rockland County. No cold air what model are they going with? I thought all of them show snow now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Nibor said: Thus, this looks to be a mainly rain event with a rain/snow mix possible on the backside Saturday night. Lol sounds like what March 2001 turned into Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 hours ago, mannynyc said: The NWS likes to be, for good reason, as cautious as possible with their forecasts, especially this far out with nothing close to model consensus. The cold air is certainly an issue, but it’s more fun to be optimistic than pessimistic. We aren’t the NWS. This weekend and next weekend are our bests shots for a moderate snowfall this year, but it is far from a sure thing. Maybe they are cautious because of what happened in March 2001 and January 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Nibor said: Thus, this looks to be a mainly rain event with a rain/snow mix possible on the backside Saturday night. Lol Same with Mt. Holly, as they're not impressed with either potential system... .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The axis of the mid level and surface ridges are expected to pass off the coast on Friday. We should experience another day with generally dry weather conditions and seasonable temperatures. Guidance continues to come into better agreement with forecast for the weekend. The overall pattern suggests that a mid level low will progress from around Lake Erie on Friday evening to the waters off southern New Jersey and Delaware on Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, an initial surface low is expected to weaken in western Pennsylvania on Friday night with a secondary low developing off the Middle Atlantic Coast. The secondary low is anticipated to deepen rapidly as it moves farther out to sea on Saturday and Saturday night. The system is forecast to bring our next precipitation event from Friday night into Saturday. The pattern is expected to keep any significant cold air from building into our region. As a result, the precipitation type should be mainly rain, with the potential for a wintry mix from the Interstate 78 Corridor northward. High pressure is expected to follow for Sunday. A mid level trough is forecast to drop over the Great Lakes on Monday, with surface low pressure approaching our region from the west and southwest. We will indicate a chance of precipitation for Monday. Temperatures should remain seasonable so we will carry mainly rain and allow for a wintry mix up north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It would be interesting to see how much snow we got here in 1717 lol Fore New England https://newenglandhistoricalsociety.com/great-snow-1717/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 18-19 was snowy in March? I don't remember that 17-18 also. Think we had one snowfall every week in March of '18. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, matt8204 said: 17-18 also. Think we had one snowfall every week in March of '18. Yes! My favorite though was the one we had in April, 6 inches of snow! You know the one in April is going to be the last one so that makes it extra special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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